COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[Restomaniac]

This is frightening.



If it’s true then U40’s generally are not going to become immune at all whilst being able to catch and spread it.

[Big Tea]

Its a pay site so can not post full, but last week ( 9 apr )

Martin Hibberd, a professor of emerging infectious disease at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine said “We need a centralised pathology lab antibody test. The government has bought these home tests but they are traditionally very poor in terms of sensitivity and specificity. Expecting those to perform exceptionally well is unlikely in my estimate because they don’t perform particularly well for any virus,”

So this is not unexpected and is likely to be the way the test is handled, (if it is the same thing ???)

[aral]

izzy. thanks for the admonishing ! However, Brawn has to consider anything that will not mean a hefty loss for FIA. Brains better than mine have all indicated that "behind closed doors" is something that cannot be attained for numerous reasons such as 14 day clearances, numbers involved, closed borders etc etc. However, if you have any workable idea as to how it could be achieved and when, I would imagine that FIA would be grateful for such plans. We have to concentrate first on making the world safe before wanting to get our own fixes.
As you say this is an F1 forum, so it is not a place for scaremongering about covid 19. Stick to F1 and how races will be affected. Currently the austrian one probably will not be cleared even thoug there has been a slight lifting of restrictions. But social distancing etc remains in place and borders are still closed.....and i have a particular interest in getting into Austria, and I have already gotten info from my local council that i probably wont get there until mid July at the earliest, and maybe not until around September

[Just_a_fan]

This is frightening.



If it’s true then U40’s generally are not going to become immune at all whilst being able to catch and spread it.

That's not what it says. It says that the antibody test doesn't work properly for under-40s that had a low dose infection.

[3jawchuck]

...
but Ross Brawn has specifically mentioned the possibility of racing behind closed doors
...

He doesn't own any circuits, has no involvement in the management of teams and drivers, isn't any part of any national or local governments and can only speak from the perspective of the FIA.

Don't take his words as anything other than the FIA saying they are open to options. This on its own, means very little.

[Restomaniac]

This is frightening.



If it’s true then U40’s generally are not going to become immune at all whilst being able to catch and spread it.

That's not what it says. It says that the antibody test doesn't work properly for under-40s that had a low dose infection.

That’s because of such low levels of antibodies and most young do get a easier time of it, I mean how often have we heard that young people just brush it off. This piece seems to point that it’s because their immune systems fight it off by other means (killer cells). Low antibody counts mean probable reinfection if they had high numbers they would be showing in tests.

That’s how the human body works. Get infected-create antibodies-become immune. Without the 2nd part you can become infected again.

[izzy]

izzy. thanks for the admonishing ! However, Brawn has to consider anything that will not mean a hefty loss for FIA. Brains better than mine have all indicated that "behind closed doors" is something that cannot be attained for numerous reasons such as 14 day clearances, numbers involved, closed borders etc etc. However, if you have any workable idea as to how it could be achieved and when, I would imagine that FIA would be grateful for such plans. We have to concentrate first on making the world safe before wanting to get our own fixes.
As you say this is an F1 forum, so it is not a place for scaremongering about covid 19. Stick to F1 and how races will be affected. Currently the austrian one probably will not be cleared even thoug there has been a slight lifting of restrictions. But social distancing etc remains in place and borders are still closed.....and i have a particular interest in getting into Austria, and I have already gotten info from my local council that i probably wont get there until mid July at the earliest, and maybe not until around September

yes i agree about not scaremongering and generally posting reasonably with evidence. I hope you can get home soon!

as for Ross (and @3jawchuck), he has obviously been reading my posts, luckily, as I've been pointing out for ages how they can all just go to Silverstone!! 400-600 low-risk people, tested, quarantined. They can hang out together isolating as a group, it's not any higher risk than home isolating with family going shopping and receiving virus-encrusted parcels

it might take them a month before they can start then a month to get set up, then they're good to go. in my original idea, which i still like, they could do 20 races with the drivers swapping teams, Ross just says: "do it bambini or no money, it's the same for everyone"

Or they can tour Europe by road, just stay in their motorhomes or take over empty hotels, 3 weekends each then move on. There are lots of options, there's no need to give up. By July there'll be a LOT of pressure to ease lockdown and allow that size of group in those carefully managed circumstances. This is how Ross gets to be Formula One managing director of motorsports and technical director, and of course he has done it all, for a long time

[Just_a_fan]

This is frightening.



If it’s true then U40’s generally are not going to become immune at all whilst being able to catch and spread it.

That's not what it says. It says that the antibody test doesn't work properly for under-40s that had a low dose infection.

That’s because of such low levels of antibodies and most young do get a easier time of it, I mean how often have we heard that young people just brush it off. This piece seems to point that it’s because their immune systems fight it off by other means (killer cells). Low antibody counts mean probable reinfection if they had high numbers they would be showing in tests.

That’s how the human body works. Get infected-create antibodies-become immune. Without the 2nd part you can become infected again.

I think they're producing sufficient antibodies for their own body's needs but they aren't enough the test to be reliable. That's my reading of it (the bit that isn't behind the paywall, anyway). It's not about reinfection risk, it's about not being able to tell who's already had it in the first place.

Basically, the test as it currently stands, isn't fit for purpose.

[strad]

It's not about reinfection risk, it's about not being able to tell who's already had it in the first place.
Basically, the test as it currently stands, isn't fit for purpose.

.
YEP!

[Restomaniac]

That's not what it says. It says that the antibody test doesn't work properly for under-40s that had a low dose infection.

That’s because of such low levels of antibodies and most young do get a easier time of it, I mean how often have we heard that young people just brush it off. This piece seems to point that it’s because their immune systems fight it off by other means (killer cells). Low antibody counts mean probable reinfection if they had high numbers they would be showing in tests.

That’s how the human body works. Get infected-create antibodies-become immune. Without the 2nd part you can become infected again.

I think they're producing sufficient antibodies for their own body's needs but they aren't enough the test to be reliable. That's my reading of it (the bit that isn't behind the paywall, anyway). It's not about reinfection risk, it's about not being able to tell who's already had it in the first place.

Basically, the test as it currently stands, isn't fit for purpose.

The thread I linked to actually covers the story so you don’t need to open the link to the Telegraph.

[izzy]

The thread I linked to actually covers the story so you don’t need to open the link to the Telegraph.

I don't know if I'm reading it right but these low count people are killing the virus within themselves, so they're not infectious? And if they got another infection they'd probably fight it off again

So the problem is there'd be some people who could have a certificate but don't get one

[Restomaniac]

The thread I linked to actually covers the story so you don’t need to open the link to the Telegraph.

I don't know if I'm reading it right but these low count people are killing the virus within themselves, so they're not infectious? And if they got another infection they'd probably fight it off again

So the problem is there'd be some people who could have a certificate but don't get one

But they would be infectious becacuse it’s in their systems. Remember the very long incubation period. In that time they are killing the virus that doesn’t mean they cannot expel it to others. Remember that in that piece some were tested positive for it previously who now have very few antibodies that in of itself must mean they can expel it.

This is the problem.

How can we ever use an antibody test if some will not show them. All that will do is show a lower % who have had it.

If the young can be infected numerous times how the hell do we eventually get to herd immunity?

[Just_a_fan]

If the young can be infected numerous times how the hell do we eventually get to herd immunity?

The suggestion is that the young are just killing the virus by other means so are getting the same response (they're immune) by some other means. If that's the case then the herd immunity issue is still covered.

The issue appears to be that the virus is causing an excessive immune response in some, particularly older, people. If that's the case, then herd immunity doesn't help because they'll always get adverse reactions to any short term re-emergence of the virus in the community. More worryingly, a vaccine might actually be dangerous for those people.

[Just_a_fan]

Interesting site discussion the tests in general and the differences / issues with each.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expe ... -covid-19/

[izzy]

There's some talk about a closed doors race in Austria, at quite a high level: https://www.motorsportweek.com/2020/04/ ... strian-gp/

Austria presents F1 with its best chance to get the 2020 season underway because the country has begun to relax its lockdown and that even includes allowing some events to go ahead in June – a month prior to the scheduled Grand Prix date.

The circuit is also remote, sitting in the Styrian mountains just outside of Spielberg which has a small population of just over 5,000 and is some way from a major city. The circuit also has its own airfield which would allow the necessary employees to fly in and out without coming into contact with anybody outside of the paddock.

Meanwhile Red Bull has the financial clout to make it happen as not only does it own and operate the circuit, but it pays for the race, rather than the local government, so running a race without fans wouldn’t necessarily be a major financial hit and F1 would likely compromise on its hosting fees as a result.

“We don’t want to stand in the way,” Austrian sports minister and vice-chancellor Werner Kogler said during a press conference.

5th July....