2020 pecking order prediction

[Jambier]

Time to look at that 2019 report again!

https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2019/03 ... -analysis/

https://i.imgur.com/yM0try7.jpg

What is so funny? Wasn’t that pretty much the pecking order at Bahrain?

We often forget that it changes during the year. HAAS were very fast in Melbourne 2019... look where they finished

[Phil]

That’s why i took Bahrain. It’s the first “real” track in the season and representative in areas where a street track such as Melbourne isnt.

If you go too far into the season, you have to consider car updates and changes, i.e. did Ferrari detune their engine after Bahrain with the DNF they had that then made it seem like Mercedes had the best car in the first half of the season?

[GPR-A]

Time to look at that 2019 report again!

https://f1metrics.wordpress.com/2019/03 ... -analysis/

https://i.imgur.com/yM0try7.jpg

What is so funny? Wasn’t that pretty much the pecking order at Bahrain?

You can be selective and map it to any GP that you want where that analysis coincide. That doesn't give credibility to the analysis done using the skewed testing numbers. Try Australian GP and to be more accurate, try Spanish GP itself and then tell me it was accurate. How could one take numbers from a high downforce track like Spain and put it to a low downforce, power dominant circuit like Bahrain and say it's accurate?

[Phil]

You are taking an analysis based on winter testing and drawing conclusions for races held weeks after that analysis was conducted. Give or take, the analysis was thorough and not that far "off the mark", especially when looking at Bahrain. I'm not going to take the Spanish GP as any kind of reference given it was held 2 months and many updates later. F1 cars are evolve. Surely you've been here long enough to realize that.

[GPR-A]

You are taking an analysis based on winter testing and drawing conclusions for races held weeks after that analysis was conducted. Give or take, the analysis was thorough and not that far "off the mark", especially when looking at Bahrain. I'm not going to take the Spanish GP as any kind of reference given it was held 2 months and many updates later. F1 cars are evolve. Surely you've been here long enough to realize that.

I have edited my post with another question.

[Phil]

How could one take numbers from a high downforce track like Spain and put it to a low downforce, power dominant circuit like Bahrain and say it's accurate?

The premise of course is that a car with a strong package that does well on a high downforce circuit (Barcelona) is also quick on different circuits. Even so, there are certain outliers on the calendar that are even less representative; especially street tracks with low grip where the requirements to being fast are very different. On one hand of the scale, you have tracks like Barcelona. Then you have Bahrain and on the very far end, you have tracks like Melbourne, Canada, Monaco etc.

[TAG]

Having a think about this with the shortened calendar it give Bottas the absolute best opportunity to snatch a world title. A couple of issues for his team mate early on and it would be impossible to recover from it. Depending on how strong Red Bull is, 2020 is going to be the best chance anyone not named Hamilton to win a title. Verstappen and Bottas I'm sure have thought about it as well.

[PlatinumZealot]

As it is now, there are three sets of four back to back races, quite a trial of endurance for anyone. We are going to see drivers making many mistakes and the fittest and most consistent drivers not necessarily the fastest will shine on the back end.

[kalinka]

How could one take numbers from a high downforce track like Spain and put it to a low downforce, power dominant circuit like Bahrain and say it's accurate?

The premise of course is that a car with a strong package that does well on a high downforce circuit (Barcelona) is also quick on different circuits. Even so, there are certain outliers on the calendar that are even less representative; especially street tracks with low grip where the requirements to being fast are very different. On one hand of the scale, you have tracks like Barcelona. Then you have Bahrain and on the very far end, you have tracks like Melbourne, Canada, Monaco etc.

I really miss those days when smaller teams had the balls and designed cars for one type of circuit. Like Jordan in late 90s and early 2000s when they were known to be always competitive on high speed tracks like Spa and Monza. It kinda makes sense for a small team because that's a huge chance to get big publicity and make good points.It was exciting to watch because they could sometimes snatch pole or being very close to it. I'm not sure though if it was really a conscious choice or just turned out like that.

[Just_a_fan]

Going well at high speed circuits generally indicates an insufficient level of downforce is produced by the car. It's not them designing a car to do well at those circuits, it's a sign that they are deficient at other circuits.

[kalinka]

Going well at high speed circuits generally indicates an insufficient level of downforce is produced by the car. It's not them designing a car to do well at those circuits, it's a sign that they are deficient at other circuits.

Yeah, but nowdays somehow these oddities dissapeared. A midfield car never gets close to pole/podium bar some extreme luck. Back then you could bet on some midfiled teams that they will make top teams run for their money on some circiuts. Very few of the circuits, but still..

[Just_a_fan]

Going well at high speed circuits generally indicates an insufficient level of downforce is produced by the car. It's not them designing a car to do well at those circuits, it's a sign that they are deficient at other circuits.

Yeah, but nowdays somehow these oddities dissapeared. A midfield car never gets close to pole/podium bar some extreme luck. Back then you could bet on some midfiled teams that they will make top teams run for their money on some circiuts. Very few of the circuits, but still..

Jordan's win at Spa in 98, for example, was as much down to the big boys failing to finish as them having a "designed for the circuit" car.

Did Jordan ever win a race "on pace" rather than by others ahead of them messing up? Sure, they merited the wins because they finished where others failed to do so, but I'm not sure they ever won other than by luck.

[kalinka]

In '99 Frentzen finished 3rd in the WDC in Jordan, having 6 podiums with 2 wins in France and Italy. But podium reached by many more : Barichello , Herbert, Mika Salo, Trulli..non in top teams. I may be wrong, but there couldn't be so many lottery-races in '99. I can remember more races like these around that time. But anyway, it's OT. Maybe I'm just too nostalgic

[Ringleheim]

As it is now, there are three sets of four back to back races, quite a trial of endurance for anyone. We are going to see drivers making many mistakes and the fittest and most consistent drivers not necessarily the fastest will shine on the back end.

I honestly don't think the current breed of driver will have trouble physically coping with back to back races. Not with these modern cars, power steering, coasting to save gas, etc.

[JordanMugen]

Back then you could bet on some midfiled teams that they will make top teams run for their money on some circiuts. Very few of the circuits, but still..

That's true! Jaguar were very good at Monaco in '01 then ironically very good at Monza in '02 (IIRC).



Fisichella of course took pole for the 2009 Belgian GP, and could have won the race if not for a crafty overtake by Raikkonen outside of track limits.