Why Verstappen will NOT win in 2020

[PlatinumZealot]

Every first-time champion goes through a stage of learning to win a championship almost akin to learning to ride bicycle. Agreed? You raise the training wheels up, push off, try to balance and keep those training wheels in the air as long as you can. After a while, you learn keep balance longer till you are ready to remove the training wheels altogether and repeat the cycle till it is burned into your subconcious mind. This does not happen in one day. Time to learn is the factor.
Verstappen is an awesome driver but the 2020 calendar will be so tightly packed, he simply won't get time to internalize and analyze his executions and apply that to the track. Not to mention reacting to the big picture and applying his championship strategy accordingly. This 2020 champion is not about learning. And it will be too variable to be about instinct. In my estimation it will be about going balls to the wall, and applying past championship tactics and strategies, while executing in surgical precision. In other words this is a fight for those with championship experience.

[Jolle]

Every first-time champion goes through a stage of learning to win a championship almost akin to learning to ride bicycle. Agreed? You raise the training wheels up, push off, try to balance and keep those training wheels in the air as long as you can. After a while, you learn keep balance longer till you are ready to remove the training wheels altogether and repeat the cycle till it is burned into your subconcious mind. This does not happen in one day. Time to learn is the factor.
Verstappen is an awesome driver but the 2020 calendar will be so tightly packed, he simply won't get time to internalize and analyze his executions and apply that to the track. Not to mention reacting to the big picture and applying his championship strategy accordingly. This 2020 champion is not about learning. And it will be too variable to be about instinct. In my estimation it will be about going balls to the wall, and applying past championship tactics and strategies, while executing in surgical precision. In other words this is a fight for those with championship experience.

You might be right, but Verstappen is no rookie anymore and has a good team around him. If he has a car that can challenge Hamilton, he might surprise you. Don't forget, he's a quick and used to hard battling. His main competition would be Leclerc (who is more a rookie then Verstappen) and Hamilton, who hasn't really needed his knife edge skills the last few seasons. If Brazil 2019 is any indication of the 2020 season might surprise us.

[NathanOlder]

I can't wait to see Max under pressure. See how he reacts. so far he has had little pressure, If he didn't win a race in the past, it didn't matter as he was in a RedBull (hardly ever favourite). So being in a championship battle will be such a new experience for him, it will be interesting to see how he responds to that.

[bill shoe]

Max has never been a serious championship contender, so he's never needed to maximize points at every race. He just shoots for a win, and if that's not coming he occasionally blows off the points he does have (refusing FIA order to give back place he barged into so gets time penalty, etc.).

Lewis Hamilton has lots of experience showing up to every race with a Maximize-Points mindset. He doesn't let people push him around, but he is laser-focused on the "points war" instead of the "car-next-to-me battle". In contrast, it's not clear if Max's hyper-aggression with car-to-car fighting can translate into the same type of Maximize-Points attitude.

I'd love it if Max surprises me because we need someone to give Lewis a real run for the championship.

[Sevach]

Every first-time champion goes through a stage of learning to win a championship almost akin to learning to ride bicycle. Agreed? You raise the training wheels up, push off, try to balance and keep those training wheels in the air as long as you can. After a while, you learn keep balance longer till you are ready to remove the training wheels altogether and repeat the cycle till it is burned into your subconcious mind. This does not happen in one day. Time to learn is the factor.
Verstappen is an awesome driver but the 2020 calendar will be so tightly packed, he simply won't get time to internalize and analyze his executions and apply that to the track. Not to mention reacting to the big picture and applying his championship strategy accordingly. This 2020 champion is not about learning. And it will be too variable to be about instinct. In my estimation it will be about going balls to the wall, and applying past championship tactics and strategies, while executing in surgical precision. In other words this is a fight for those with championship experience.

I won't say "will not" but you are right on the fact that he's making the jump from "a win here or there" to "championship challenge".

[langedweil]

Lewis Hamilton has lots of experience showing up to every race with a Maximize-Points mindset. He doesn't let people push him around, but he is laser-focused on the "points war" instead of the "car-next-to-me battle". In contrast, it's not clear if Max's hyper-aggression with car-to-car fighting can translate into the same type of ...

I really do think, aside from the talent, Lewis (and Schumi for that matter as well) honestly only got to get what he's got because of an out-of-this-world car/pu combo for years.
Looking at the Rosberg years, he didn't get things for free and even missed out once. So yes, he's class of the field, but so are Max and Charles, and even Vettel (who will now race without any team-pressure). Anyone of them, and probably more guys in the field, will run off in front if they have the car for a rather 'easy' pole.
And especially this season, a season that'll be weird, things will be stirred up. Hopefully they throw Maranello or Imola in the mix, so no recent data is available.
We'll see, just a couple of weeks now.

[PlatinumZealot]

Looking back on some first time challenges over the years they have always beena bit messy haven't they?

Hamilton 2007 - I admit this was sloppy finishing for Lewis. I think Kimi was already an experienced contender at this point and duly won.

Button 2009 - anyone remember Button mysterosuly loosing his speed and precision in the last leg of the championship?

Vettel and Webber 2010 - they could have clinched it much earlier. The other guys were really in slower cars. They sort of made a meal of it.

Nico 2014... He actually didn't do bad but this one's a bit unique because he was in the same car as Hamilton. He took a couple more years to get that consistency down pat before he won in 2016.

[Andres125sx]

Button 2009 was not a direct rival of Hamilton, but I agree on your point

IMHO Hamilton nowadays is several orders of magnitude a better driver than he was in his very first years, but I also think Max is now much better than his very first years, and I´m not sure Lewis is that consistent. He´s much more consistent than some years ago, but not Alonso-esque consistency anycase

I think (hope) 2020 can be a season with some surprise, with a short championship consistency is not that important and a good winning streak can make RBR or Ferrari fight Mercedes

[Bill]

These is nonsense it's Lewis who usually starts the season slow .if Max can nail the first few races then he would have an advantage.Redbull too usually start a season slow but now the season starts midterm which can only be advantage Max . Mercedes pu realibility is also a question mark.

[NathanOlder]

These is nonsense it's Lewis who usually starts the season slow .if Max can nail the first few races then he would have an advantage.Redbull too usually start a season slow but now the season starts midterm which can only be advantage Max . Mercedes pu realibility is also a question mark.

If RedBull and Lewis usually start slow, how is the season starting midterm an advantage for Max ?

[Bill]

It's an advantage for Rbr because they had three months to work on the car since testing so they would have a much more developed car. These is the time frame they usually start to pick up pace.

[HungarianRacer]

Why? Because the Mercedes W11 promises to be an absolute monster... Simple as.

I don't expect this to be a close season at all, with Red Bull a clear 2nd and Ferrari a clear 3rd in the pecking order all throughout the year (very unlike the previous 3 seasons)... Will soon see if my unpopular opinion holds or not.

[ME4ME]

The analogy part is wasted on me, I don't see what it adds to the argument..

The point that Verstappen is over-aggressive isn't really valid anymore in my opinion. He is aggressive, yes, but to the extent that it benefits him more that it cost him. Also the mere perception of people including the very drivers he races against that he is dangerous and brutal is to his benefit.

Also the point that Hamilton is somehow mentally stronger in adverse situations than Verstappen isn't clear at all. We have seen many times, really since his debut, that Hamilton can let his head down and loose his motivation mid-race or on a bad day. How often haven't see heard his team trying to re-motivate him and take the blame. Now Verstappen isn't immune to pressure either - he sounded a bit stressed on the radio at the 2019 Hungarian GP i recently re-watched, asking for maximum power in quite a stressed fashion. So we don't know how he'll do in a real championship fight. But giving the "mental advantage" to Hamilton at this point isn't really backed up by facts in my opinion.

The championship experience advantage .. I don't know if thats real. Surely it comes with plenty of disadvantages too, such as external expectations. The drivers own expectations. The drop in motivation when things go wrong, when they're suddenly behind. The mental hit when the realization comes that there is a real chance of losing the championship, no longer be the best, or running out of time to become the all-time best.

What speaks to Hamiltons advantage right now is his team and his equipment. The car will undoubtedly be equal or faster than any other car over the season.

[GPR-A]

The point that Verstappen is over-aggressive isn't really valid anymore in my opinion. He is aggressive, yes, but to the extent that it benefits him more that it cost him. Also the mere perception of people including the very drivers he races against that he is dangerous and brutal is to his benefit.

Neither does Leclerc thinks he is dangerous (silverstone?) and nor does Lewis (an example in Mexico). The only danger that has been, is that he was non championship challenger. Once in a championship challenge, he need to save his car from other dangerous drivers.

He threw an easy win away in Brazil in 2018, where he didn't know how to handle a lapped car, racing in his 4th year in F1.

[nzjrs]

The point that Verstappen is over-aggressive isn't really valid anymore in my opinion. He is aggressive, yes, but to the extent that it benefits him more that it cost him. Also the mere perception of people including the very drivers he races against that he is dangerous and brutal is to his benefit.

I think I agree with this framing. I believe he was intentionally and maliciously aggressive in some/part of the years where 'it didn't matter for a championship' in order to build a reputation that he will never yield or follow team orders.

I really don't know if that will work out, but I'm sure he saw it as an investment towards his future title chances.