Why Verstappen will NOT win in 2020

[PlatinumZealot]

The analogy part is wasted on me, I don't see what it adds to the argument..

The point that Verstappen is over-aggressive isn't really valid anymore in my opinion. He is aggressive, yes, but to the extent that it benefits him more that it cost him. Also the mere perception of people including the very drivers he races against that he is dangerous and brutal is to his benefit.

Also the point that Hamilton is somehow mentally stronger in adverse situations than Verstappen isn't clear at all. We have seen many times, really since his debut, that Hamilton can let his head down and loose his motivation mid-race or on a bad day. How often haven't see heard his team trying to re-motivate him and take the blame. Now Verstappen isn't immune to pressure either - he sounded a bit stressed on the radio at the 2019 Hungarian GP i recently re-watched, asking for maximum power in quite a stressed fashion. So we don't know how he'll do in a real championship fight. But giving the "mental advantage" to Hamilton at this point isn't really backed up by facts in my opinion.

The championship experience advantage .. I don't know if thats real. Surely it comes with plenty of disadvantages too, such as external expectations. The drivers own expectations. The drop in motivation when things go wrong, when they're suddenly behind. The mental hit when the realization comes that there is a real chance of losing the championship, no longer be the best, or running out of time to become the all-time best.

What speaks to Hamiltons advantage right now is his team and his equipment. The car will undoubtedly be equal or faster than any other car over the season.

Ok. I gave examples of some "first time challengers" messing up for certain reasons.

Verstappen would be amongst the most exceptional drivers to nail it on his first try, AGAINST a vastly more experienced champion contender.

I think Senna did it but he was in the same car as Prost.

I think Mansel WDC year was his second time as contender.

Schumacher wont it on his first attempt. But his competition were not experienced in fighting for WDC.

Damon hill won on his second challenge too.

Jacques Villenueve won his first championship challenge against a 2XWDC in another car, but there is a big but, his car was vastly superior. Max Verstappen car will be equal at best. So you can see going by history alone, he is going against all odds.

First real championship challenge (we hope)
6XWDC in competing in rival car.
Rival car is expected to be superior at best or equal of at worst.
Calendar is tightly packed so no time to rationalise these new pressures and stress to be youngest WDC.

He is an awesome driver but he break into a state of lighting-God-like driving to win this one. It would be awesome to watch it... Awesome.. But...

[Jolle]

Don’t forget about those multiple WC who messed up their chances, both of them highly considered on this forum (Alonso & Schumacher).

[dans79]

It's an advantage for Rbr because they had three months to work on the car since testing so they would have a much more developed car. These is the time frame they usually start to pick up pace.

And what do you think Mercedes and every other team has been doing?

[FrukostScones]

I think it more the opposite.
Short & raw, that is what the season will be.
If there is is season up for grabs, it is this one.
For him.

[Just_a_fan]

I think Mansel WDC year was his second time as contender.

Schumacher wont it on his first attempt. But his competition were not experienced in fighting for WDC.

Damon hill won on his second challenge too.

Mansell lost out in 1986 because of a tyre blow out, not because he lost his nerve.

Schumacher won in 1994 because he deliberately crashed in to Hill. Why? Because he went off track under the pressure from Hill.

Hill lost out because Schumacher couldn't handle the pressure and hit him having first gone off.

Other than that, spot on.

[Just_a_fan]

It's an advantage for Rbr because they had three months to work on the car since testing so they would have a much more developed car. These is the time frame they usually start to pick up pace.

And Mercedes have been sat on their hands doing nothing?

Of course, no team has had 3 months because they were all locked down for a significant period. Unless they were naughty...

[Just_a_fan]

Hamilton 2007 - I admit this was sloppy finishing for Lewis. I think Kimi was already an experienced contender at this point and duly won.

Er, rookie year. Not a guy that's had a few seasons to figure it out, but a guy in his first year who also finished the season ahead of his champion team mate.

Hamilton's mistake was that, being a rookie, he didn't argue with the team when they left him out in China.

[Sevach]

Don’t forget about those multiple WC who messed up their chances, both of them highly considered on this forum (Alonso & Schumacher).

Alonso was pretty much flawless in the first go, built a lead, went for points/podiums when he couldn't win and kept his consistency.

Schumacher 94, dominant all year, screwed the pooch in the finale, resorted...
Hill, was pushed to be in decider by the FIA DQ and suspending MS, but did step up in the last 2.
Not so great in both 95 and 96.
Villeneuve is arguable, first he kinda already challenged for the championship in his rookie season (though i think that was Hill almost botching his way to a loss), no big mistakes in 96 just didn't have the pace early.
Stepped up to the challenge in the finale of 97, but plenty of inconsistency throughout the year.
Mika 98 pretty on point, solid down the stretch, arguably the most on point he was in his career.
Kimi 03 very solid, just didn't have the ultimate pace in that Mclaren.
Alonso 05, on point as i already said.
Hamilton 07-08, a far cry from where he is now
Massa 08, ups and downs, nailed the finale though.
Button 09, kinda crawled over the line.
Vettel and Webber 2010... Webber had a consistent championship but choked down the stretch, Vettel made mistakes early (had plenty of car troubles too) but picked himself back up down the stretch.
Rosberg 14, no huge mistakes but just couldn't keep up during the final stretch of the season.

[PlatinumZealot]

Looking back on Vettel again one could argue that 2009....

[Jolle]

Don’t forget about those multiple WC who messed up their chances, both of them highly considered on this forum (Alonso & Schumacher).

Alonso was pretty much flawless in the first go, built a lead, went for points/podiums when he couldn't win and kept his consistency.

Schumacher 94, dominant all year, screwed the pooch in the finale, resorted...
Hill, was pushed to be in decider by the FIA DQ and suspending MS, but did step up in the last 2.
Not so great in both 95 and 96.
Villeneuve is arguable, first he kinda already challenged for the championship in his rookie season (though i think that was Hill almost botching his way to a loss), no big mistakes in 96 just didn't have the pace early.
Stepped up to the challenge in the finale of 97, but plenty of inconsistency throughout the year.
Mika 98 pretty on point, solid down the stretch, arguably the most on point he was in his career.
Kimi 03 very solid, just didn't have the ultimate pace in that Mclaren.
Alonso 05, on point as i already said.
Hamilton 07-08, a far cry from where he is now
Massa 08, ups and downs, nailed the finale though.
Button 09, kinda crawled over the line.
Vettel and Webber 2010... Webber had a consistent championship but choked down the stretch, Vettel made mistakes early (had plenty of car troubles too) but picked himself back up down the stretch.
Rosberg 14, no huge mistakes but just couldn't keep up during the final stretch of the season.

I meant Alonso in 2010 and Schumi in ‘97, when both were already MWC. Their first ones were still done in nativity

[Sevach]

Looking back on Vettel again one could argue that 2009....

Maybe, but not a true shot if we are honest, he only jumped Barichello at Abu Dhabi.

[raymondu999]

I'll bite.

While I'm not going to delve into which driver is better etc - I think it's true that historically, WCs have (barring of course the first few seasons of F1) always had a "bedding in" season where they had to at least gained the mental experience of chasing a title. Hamilton had his 2007, Vettel had his 2009 (although could be argued it was very late in the season when he actually realised that he could have a go for the title), etc

The counterarguments of course are Button in 2009 and Alonso in 2005, both of who are more cerebral race-managers than most other counterparts. Before anyone flames me on "Driver X is also good!" I mean like they're very big picture drivers where they are often good at solo-calling race strategies. Hamilton, Vettel arguably are now too - but you have to say that 2009 Vettel and 2007 Hamilton lacked that cerebral race-planning nous. Not saying they should have had it, because they were relative rookies to regular F1 wins at that point - but yea

[Schuttelberg]

I personally don't feel that a WDC should go ahead this year. I don't know. There's the commercial side that absolutely needs it to happen but I just can't fathom a situation where after 8 races we don't know if there's a WDC or not. Or, after 6 races it's decided that 4 races are being added or whatever.

It's a moving storm. Either, everything needs to be pre-decided, or, they can use this season as races without a championship.

And considering how each team will forget everything a pandemic means and start being selfish the moment the lights go off, I expect little to no co-operation from them.

[Big Tea]

I personally don't feel that a WDC should go ahead this year. I don't know. There's the commercial side that absolutely needs it to happen but I just can't fathom a situation where after 8 races we don't know if there's a WDC or not. Or, after 6 races it's decided that 4 races are being added or whatever.

It's a moving storm. Either, everything needs to be pre-decided, or, they can use this season as races without a championship.

And considering how each team will forget everything a pandemic means and start being selfish the moment the lights go off, I expect little to no co-operation from them.

I think the important thing (for them) is that the sponsors and advertisers are not able to say they paid up for a product or service they did not receive, so give us the money back

[PlatinumZealot]

Mansell responded...



But with a driving style similar to what Hamilton has already, I think a polar opposite set of tools to what Hamilton has will be needed to overcome the lack of experience.