Why Verstappen will NOT win in 2020

[Andres125sx]

But the more a driver gets away with something, the more they will do it. The stewards clamped down on Lewis hard in 07/08 and it made him a better driver in the long run.

The stewards clamped down Lewis in 2007? Do you really think that?

It was meant more like, Lewis didn't drive like a moron and cause incidents in his first ever year in F1. Then in 08 he was a target for the stewards.

Ok now I can agree with that

Actually Lewis drove like a veteran for most part of the season, only in the final GPs when the title was almost in his hands the lack of experience/insecurity/anxiety showed up. But to be fair, Alonso played a huge role there, he was fighting with the champion, and with same car, so it was a lot of pressure. I can´t think of any other rookie who has suffered that kind of pressure

[ENGINE TUNER]

This is a very bizarre topic. I follow a few sports and I've seen a few topics as to why certain sports people didn't win a concluded event but it's really pre mature and perhaps even silly to make such outlandish claims.

I've seen such claims being made about Hamilton after 2011 when he was clearly a bit down and troubled. People had sworn after 2012 that Vettel had kahuna's of steel and would never crash or crack in a pressure situation.

This is SPORT! It's not a script that people follow. Humans grow, evolve, feel troubled and lose confidence and then some even reinvigorate their old spirit to win again. This is not a movie and it's definitely not robots programmed to do as entered.

If, Hamilton has the best car, he will win. If Verstappen has it, he will. If, the two cars and teams are close, it's really anyone's game. It will depend on their form then and which team/driver combination makes lesser errors. It's pretty much as simple as that.

To claim that history will determine what happens would have meant Schumacher would have won ten titles after he came back. It doesn't work like that.

If there was a thread about why Maldonado or grosjean would never win a championship then you would not post this. Verstappen and Vettel crash just as much as the two aforementioned.

Hamilton had an uncharacteristic year in 2011 which wasn't as bad as it was made out to be, and was fantastic in 2012. Verstappen and Vettel are as crash prone as ever. Vettel was a wrecking ball in 2012, who in the world would bet money on him not crashing/folding under pressure after he crashed in the brazil race? Only his deluded fans. If you said Vettel was seen in a better light after 2013, that would be reasonable, but he was then dominated in 2014 and back to his crashing ways soon after. Verstappen has been a wrecking ball since he got into F1, and in his 5th year he still caused at least 10 collisions. Verstappen is being talked about in this thread because THERE IS A TREND. 2019 was far from a clean year for Verstappen, he has not shown any growth, so why would anyone think that he is capable of challenging for the championship, especially against Hamilton.

Verstappen has had the best car/circumstances and has failed to win the race many times, why would this magically change in 2020? He does not maximize his point intake and does not always win when he should, 2 areas where Hamilton excels.

This is not a bizarre topic, it is a topic discussing a very clear trend/pattern, same as we have around here when predicting pecking orders for the next season after a season or after preseason testing.

Schumacher was old when he retired the first time, then he got injured on a motorbike, then he was pitted against a young, fast, fairly experienced and intelligent Rosberg ON EQUAL TERMS. I wouldn't have put my money on Schumacher based on those facts.

Why can't we have honest discussions about driver without their fans getting all out of sorts? Present your facts and evidence and move on if don't agree, rather than disparage the discussion itself.

[Jolle]

What is all the trauma people have with Verstappen? Not a word about for instance, Ricciardo, who is highly regarded and many here wanted him at Ferrari, who actually had the most stupid crash of 2019 (among other things) or leclec who keeps bumping into stuff?

What is it? This hatred... the guy is young, and just like Schumacher and Senna before him, drives on and sometimes over the edge. Isn’t that what we want? Daring drivers? Makes F1 a whole lot less dull... or have all of you forgotten the years that nobody even tried to overtake?

[dans79]

What is all the trauma people have with Verstappen? Not a word about for instance, Ricciardo, who is highly regarded and many here wanted him at Ferrari, who actually had the most stupid crash of 2019 (among other things) or leclec who keeps bumping into stuff?

What is it? This hatred... the guy is young, and just like Schumacher and Senna before him, drives on and sometimes over the edge. Isn’t that what we want? Daring drivers? Makes F1 a whole lot less dull... or have all of you forgotten the years that nobody even tried to overtake?

If I had to guess, it's 95% his personality, and 5% his driving that makes people dislike him. I'd go into more detail but we would probably get in trouble for it.

[ENGINE TUNER]

What is all the trauma people have with Verstappen? Not a word about for instance, Ricciardo, who is highly regarded and many here wanted him at Ferrari, who actually had the most stupid crash of 2019 (among other things) or leclec who keeps bumping into stuff?

What is it? This hatred... the guy is young, and just like Schumacher and Senna before him, drives on and sometimes over the edge. Isn’t that what we want? Daring drivers? Makes F1 a whole lot less dull... or have all of you forgotten the years that nobody even tried to overtake?

Most stupid crash of 2019?

Verstappen has a record of causing collisions, 2019 was supposed to be his "clean" season and he racked up no less than 10

Crashed into SAI in Bahrain
Crashed into BOT in Monaco
Crashed into HAM in Monaco
Crashed into LEC in Austria
Touched LEC at Silverstone
Crashed into Kimi in Spa, TWICE!
Crashed into someone at Monza T1
Crashed into HAM in Mexico
Crashed into BOT in Mexico
Crashed into MAG in Mexico

It is not hatred, or personality or anything other than his clear driving record. Not Senna, not Schumacher not any champion except for Vettel has caused that many collisions in 1 season. And this is the 5th season where Verstappen is causing carnage thru the season. Can we stop the emotional outbursts and look at this objectively?

What is more enjoyable, watching 2 drivers go at it lap after lap like we had with LEC and VER in Silverstone, or VER catching up and knocking LEC off track like he did in Austria?

Please list out LEC collisions caused for 2019, it isn't half as long, neither is RICs.

There were no times where "nobody tried to overtake", but in the past we didn't have drs and drivers overtook in the pits more often because of refueling, so passing may have been less prevalent, but that doesn't mean that we should be subjected to a destruction derby where Verstappen hits one of the other top 5 cars every other race or so.

This thread is about Verstappen's chances at winning the 2020 championship, they are low because he is a crasher, and also because he is often near Vettel who is also a crasher.

The kid is fast, he is brave, and has alot of talent, all of which will go to waste if he doesn't stop crashing.

[Jolle]

What is all the trauma people have with Verstappen? Not a word about for instance, Ricciardo, who is highly regarded and many here wanted him at Ferrari, who actually had the most stupid crash of 2019 (among other things) or leclec who keeps bumping into stuff?

What is it? This hatred... the guy is young, and just like Schumacher and Senna before him, drives on and sometimes over the edge. Isn’t that what we want? Daring drivers? Makes F1 a whole lot less dull... or have all of you forgotten the years that nobody even tried to overtake?

Most stupid crash of 2019?

reversing into someone (and of course, overtaking outside the track, crashing into his teammate, "missing" a bump in his home GP and several starting incidents). all 2019 by the way.

[ENGINE TUNER]

What is all the trauma people have with Verstappen? Not a word about for instance, Ricciardo, who is highly regarded and many here wanted him at Ferrari, who actually had the most stupid crash of 2019 (among other things) or leclec who keeps bumping into stuff?

What is it? This hatred... the guy is young, and just like Schumacher and Senna before him, drives on and sometimes over the edge. Isn’t that what we want? Daring drivers? Makes F1 a whole lot less dull... or have all of you forgotten the years that nobody even tried to overtake?

Most stupid crash of 2019?

reversing into someone (and of course, overtaking outside the track, crashing into his teammate, "missing" a bump in his home GP and several starting incidents). all 2019 by the way.

The reverse crash in Baku was silly, but these cars aren't made to go in reverse. Overtaking outside the track is not a collision, and he was rightly penalized for it just as we have seen VER penalized for it. He touched his teammate, supposedly was having brake issues, it's a blemish on his record, but not a trend like we saw all season with Verstappen. RIC was forced off track in Australia and that bump should not have been there. You reaching for a non incident like that proves that RICs record was much cleaner than VERs was last season.

[Wynters]

Not a word about for instance, Ricciardo, who is highly regarded and many here wanted him at Ferrari, who actually had the most stupid crash of 2019 (among other things) or leclec who keeps bumping into stuff?

I suspect it's because Ricciardo is not top tier. As you rightly pointed out, he's made more than his fair share of mistakes. It's likely also partly down to the fact that he's at a team that is basically ignored by the vast majority of fans. If you aren't in with a chance of winning then most people don't care. George Russell is meant to be pretty good. I suspect people might have 'stronger' opinions about him if he was driving for the Mercedes main team last year. But, he was at Williams, so no one cares.

What is it? This hatred... the guy is young, and just like Schumacher and Senna before him, drives on and sometimes over the edge. Isn’t that what we want? Daring drivers? Makes F1 a whole lot less dull... or have all of you forgotten the years that nobody even tried to overtake?

It's so depressing watching cars starting out of position drive straight past midfield cars without them even making a pretence of fighting. I get that it's the most efficient choice but...well, I miss the excitement of Petrov/Alonso.

As for the dislike of Verstappen, I suspect Hamilton suffered from the same thing (for the same reasons) and Leclerc will likely suffer too, if he's competitive with the others over the next few months. I think it's pretty much down to this.

Moderate fan: "I think the fastest, most reliable car will win this year."

Media: "The whole of Formula One is only about the drivers and the lead driver of each of the top two teams are THE BESTEST DRIVERS THAT EVER LIVED! Oh, and driving a faster car is basically the same as cheating because we don't get the man-vs-man gladiatorial contest that F1 has never been about but we always pretend it is about."

Moderate fan: "Stupid media, treating us fans like morons. Lol."

Driver fan: "MY DRIVER IS THE BESTEST WHO EVER LIVED AND HE ONLY LOSES BECAUSE THE OTHER DRIVERS CHEAT!"

Moderate fan: "Um. Really? I'm not sure he's the best. Good, yes. Best? Do you have any evidence to back that up? I remember him crashing into the Safety Car three times last year. In the same race. Whilst it was parked in the pits."

Driver fan: "YOU HATE MY DRIVER BECAUSE HE'S BETTER THAN YOUR DRIVER, WHO SUCKS AND CHEATS AND CRIES ALL THE TIME!"

Moderate fan: "Um, could you stop shouting please? I don't really have a driver and, well, all the drivers mess up so whilst your driver is definitely really good, perhaps, there's some space for improvement?"

Driver fan: "NO! HE'S MY DRIVER AND HE'S THE BESTEST AND IF YOU WERE A TRUE F1 FAN YOU WOULD AGREE WITH ME! SENNA ALWAYS SAID IF YOU DON'T GO FOR A GAP, YOU AREN'T RACING."

Moderate fan: "I'm not sure how much of a gap there was between the front of the stationary Safety Car and the inside wall of the pitlane but, okay, if Saint Senna said it. Do you think that, perhaps, actually scoring points that race might have been better?

Driver fan: "YOUR DRIVER ONLY WINS BY CHEATING."

Moderate fan: "Look, the more you ignore the points I raise, the more points and evidence I'll be motivated to find (deep down I know it's probably futile but, perhaps we might find an interesting conversation about the sport we love). Can't we just both look at the evidence, agree that he's really good but isn't perfect yet and makes the occasional slip? We could sit down, have a reasonable discussion, talk about how excellent he'll likely become and enjoy sharing our passion and knowledge of the spo-"

Driver fan: "BECAUSE I OVERLY IDENTIFY WITH MY DRIVER SO ANY CRITICISM OF HIM IS CRITICISM OF ME. I AM PERFECT SO MY DRIVER IS PERFECT. EVERYONE HAS TO AGREE WITH ME ALL THE TIME OR I FEEL THREATENED!"

Moderate fan: "This is beginning to get a little annoying...And why are you repeating this in every. Single. Thread?"

Driver fan: "MY DRIVER IS THE BESTEST WHO EVER LIVED AND HE ONLY LOSES BECAUSE THE OTHER DRIVERS CHEAT! UPVOTE ME!"

I could replace 'Driver fan' with 'Hamilton fan' or 'Vettel fan' or 'Schumacher fan' or 'Senna fan' or, etc, etc, etc.

It's even worse if that driver is from the same country as the fan because not only does that reinforce the self-identification but it also taps into national pride.

Of the current crop, Hamilton has won enough that his stats speak for themselves so his rabid fans don't quite feel the same need to justify themselves. Vettel has been let go by Ferrari so that book is pretty much closed and Leclerc hasn't sufficiently established himself to have the same mindless fan base yet. Verstappen is right in that sweet spot of 'too young to have won loads but old enough to have an established fan base'. And he's the only driver of his nationality that's been successful in F1 for a while (K-Mag would suffer in the same way if he'd been at a top team for years).

It's not Verstappen's fault. As has been pointed out, he's not much different from other successful drivers at his age and he's clearly improving. It's just the way it's all been setup by the media (hype and divisiveness sells), social media and basic human psychology.

[PlatinumZealot]

What is all the trauma people have with Verstappen? Not a word about for instance, Ricciardo, who is highly regarded and many here wanted him at Ferrari, who actually had the most stupid crash of 2019 (among other things) or leclec who keeps bumping into stuff?

What is it? This hatred... the guy is young, and just like Schumacher and Senna before him, drives on and sometimes over the edge. Isn’t that what we want? Daring drivers? Makes F1 a whole lot less dull... or have all of you forgotten the years that nobody even tried to overtake?

No. It's an interesting topic because Verstappen is billed as the guy to dethrone Hamilton this year. Ricciardo is years away from challenging for anything so no point mentioning him.

This is not a hate topic, no. It's a topic for the minds of people who like to make calculations and predictions. Looking at various factors can we say these emotions for putting Verstappen up to the task are justified? Are we failing to acknoweledge the finer details of a sustained chamionship challenge? Has Max displayed what it takes in the various areas or are we letting everything ride on talent and some hope that everything else will work it self out?

May argument is his talent and package of other skills and resources are not enough to overcome the outside factors in 2020. He would have to awaken some ultimate driving skills, zero mistakes, good decision making and team leadership skills to win against the perfectly oiled machine in the silver garage.

It is like putting a 2013 Lewis Hamilton againts a 2019 Lewis Hamilton. Even of the 2013 Hamilton was slightly quicker and more aggressive would it be enough?

[Andres125sx]

What is all the trauma people have with Verstappen? Not a word about for instance, Ricciardo, who is highly regarded and many here wanted him at Ferrari, who actually had the most stupid crash of 2019 (among other things) or leclec who keeps bumping into stuff?

What is it? This hatred... the guy is young, and just like Schumacher and Senna before him, drives on and sometimes over the edge. Isn’t that what we want? Daring drivers? Makes F1 a whole lot less dull... or have all of you forgotten the years that nobody even tried to overtake?

Most stupid crash of 2019?

reversing into someone (and of course, overtaking outside the track, crashing into his teammate, "missing" a bump in his home GP and several starting incidents). all 2019 by the way.

If you need to include in the crash list of Ricciardo an overtake without any kind of collision, a bump in the grass, and an irrelevant touch in reverse when he was looking at the racing line (right mirror) when there was another car he didn´t expect at his left, and even so the list is much shorter than that from Verstappen, that speaks volumes about Ricciardo

[Sieper]

And it is not only 2013 Hamilton versus 2019, but it has so far also been 2013 car versus 2019 car as the Merc (and sometimes the Ferrari as well) have been much better then the RBR for years. That has to be taken into account when you see where Verstappen tried to compete. In his one F3 year (where the cars are more similar (although also there he was in a midfield car) so he has a more fair shot at winning) he did not have many crashes at all. Engine trouble yes.

[Just_a_fan]

The comparison with Hamilton is interesting. When Hamilton joined F1, he was 22 years old. He made mistakes and there were many people using phrases like "he's still immature", "needs to mature" etc. Max is now the same age as Lewis was when he started and Max has done several seasons in F1 already. Does Max need to mature? Yes, of course he does - he's only 22 years old and no one is "mature" at that age.

Hamilton, like most F1 drivers at the time, came in to F1 after several years in single seaters and he was still considered immature because of his attitude and his actions. Why then, after the same number of seasons in single seaters (albeit mostly F1 single seaters) is Max considered to be mature and no one should be allowed to say otherwise. Yes, people mature at different rates, but the environment you are in - those around you, particularly - have a huge affect on how you mature.

Just as Hamilton was, initially, held close to Ron, so Max is held close to Marko (as Vettel was before him). Hamilton didn't really grow as an all round driver until he broke away from that embrace. I doubt Max will either until he does likewise. Max has the potential to take records away from Hamilton/Schumacher but he needs to develop as a person to do that.

[ENGINE TUNER]

The comparison with Hamilton is interesting. When Hamilton joined F1, he was 22 years old. He made mistakes and there were many people using phrases like "he's still immature", "needs to mature" etc.

Just for clarity, what mistakes did Hamilton make?

I will remind you that he started his rookie season with 9 straight podiums, did he make any mistakes/collisions in that period?

In his 10th race he had a wheel failure in qually forcing him to start 10th, by the 2nd corner he was in 4th place or so until he was hit by Heidfeld who was hit by his teammate Kubica, cuttingdown Hamilton's tire. Chaos ensued forcing the loss of his streak.

His next 5 races were mistake free, with 2 wins and a 2nd(also a 5th in Turkey after a blown tire and a 4th in Spa after being pushed off track by Alonso).

Has Verstappen ever had a run as good/clean as those first 9 races for Hamilton? No he hasn't. Till this day Verstappen has never had 9 straight races without causing a collision. Verstappen is not now as good/clean as Hamilton was in 2007.

[Just_a_fan]

The comparison with Hamilton is interesting. When Hamilton joined F1, he was 22 years old. He made mistakes and there were many people using phrases like "he's still immature", "needs to mature" etc.

Just for clarity, what mistakes did Hamilton make?

Er, you're arguing with the wrong chap here, my friend. I'm a Hamilton fan.

My point was merely that some people are annoyed that Max is accused of being less than perfect. My point was that at the same age, Hamilton was in his first year of F1. People forget that Max was still a kid when he started and so they forget that even though he's been in F1 for several seasons, he's still immature as a person.

But the point holds that Hamilton made mistakes. He did the wrong thing at times, he said the wrong thing at times. It's not just about what happens on track. His first season was stellar. But it wasn't perfect. He was a young man growing up. Heck, he's only mid thirties now. That's just about prime age, really, even though by F1 standards he's a veteran. Let's not forget that.

We forget that these drivers are just kids when they start in F1. They've been hot-housed in their childhood to be F1 drivers. They're no different to any other professional sports person in that regard. And most will make mistakes.

[PlatinumZealot]

The comparison with Hamilton is interesting. When Hamilton joined F1, he was 22 years old. He made mistakes and there were many people using phrases like "he's still immature", "needs to mature" etc. Max is now the same age as Lewis was when he started and Max has done several seasons in F1 already. Does Max need to mature? Yes, of course he does - he's only 22 years old and no one is "mature" at that age.

Hamilton, like most F1 drivers at the time, came in to F1 after several years in single seaters and he was still considered immature because of his attitude and his actions. Why then, after the same number of seasons in single seaters (albeit mostly F1 single seaters) is Max considered to be mature and no one should be allowed to say otherwise. Yes, people mature at different rates, but the environment you are in - those around you, particularly - have a huge affect on how you mature.

Just as Hamilton was, initially, held close to Ron, so Max is held close to Marko (as Vettel was before him). Hamilton didn't really grow as an all round driver until he broke away from that embrace. I doubt Max will either until he does likewise. Max has the potential to take records away from Hamilton/Schumacher but he needs to develop as a person to do that.

Hamilton grew as a driver in 2012 I would say.
After his annus horriblis in 2011, 2012 was a year of consistently fast driving without noticeable errors. He continued that till today.

In 2010 he was good in consistency too, but not as mature on reading the race.

In essence Hamilton came age in year Six.
Max began full time in 2015 so this year is his Year Six! So let's see if he has matured in avoiding errors.