Why Verstappen will NOT win in 2020

[PlatinumZealot]

Top five is easy to do since the leading six cars are miles in front of the mid-field. So 3rd best car needs to be put in context.

By that rationale LH's titles were easy to do as well

Well not in theory:

For top five out of six it is an 83% chance.
Top one out of two (Lewis versus Nico) was 50% chance.
And top one out of four (Merc Vs Ferrari 2017) and 2018 was in theory a 25% chance.

This year if all top six cars are equally quick, it will be just over a 16% chance to be the champion.

[PlatinumZealot]

Jean Todt. We have seen last year how far he is willing to go. This year he has unprecedented power due to COVID19. Nicolas will make sure dad will cover up Ferrari’s usual illegal steps, or arrange a small fine or slap on the wrist worst case. Of course he will then quickly state this will never happen again. Thanks to last years illegal Ferrari engine they are now authorized to direct the fia to ban any beneficial engine technology competitors invent. Jean wants his present and he wants it now. And then to think Ferrari objects a former Mercedess team boss to replace him? No such thing while Jean is king. Were the fia president elections not postponed indefinitely? Good times coming. So now you know why Verstappen must not win in 2020. Maybe time for another Verstappen rule then Jean? Don’t wait too long, it is a short season. Maybe have a talk with Ocon Jean? He is an expert in crashing into other cars deliberately. Needs cash too. Maybe reward by an illegal engine for Renault as already mentioned by Helmut Marko? So many choices...

That's an interesting view...
So basically Jean Todt will take up the grudge against Verstappen on Ferraris behalf? Lol. Far fatched, but certainly possible.

[Wynters]

Hamilton averages worse than 2nd over the last 2 seasons. In the best car! Must be a lousy driver if he cannot even average 2nd in the best car....

(To be clear, I consider Hamilton a great driver (and Verstappen a very good driver too), I just use him to show the reasoning is wrong)

What's Hamilton got to do with it?

Also, you were the one who introduced 'average finishing position' as the reasoning.

Also, your statement that 'cannot even average 2nd...' demonstrates a flawed understanding of the reasoning you introduced. E.g. Last season, Hamilton scored a record number of points.

Also, your maths is incorrect, again. 2018, using the same 'ignore non-finishes' he averaged 1.959 That's a smaller number than 2, not larger.

[Pyrone89]

It is all about the car. If they give him a car equal to Lewis' car I think Max will be able to take it but it will be hard. Don't forget that we haven't seen Lewis tested over a WDC since 2016 (and depending on how good the Mercedes is again this year, we might not see it again this year) as Bottas is no threat.

If Verstappen needs to wring the neck of the car (maximum risk thus) like previous years to overcome the disadvantage then I think Lewis' will take it. Agree that 'popping your WDC cherry' is a disadvantage, but what is he supposed to do about that? It helps if you get a dominant car for your first WDC to relieve the pressure, but that is in the team's hands.

Either way we are talking about the nr. 2 (and possibly nr. 1 after this year) with regards to success ('best driver ranking of F1's history is always a hot item due to the enormous impact of the cars) and a driver we may be talking about in the same way in 10 or 15 years (or he could turn into a Stirling Moss with regards to silverware).

[Pyrone89]

Max has never been a serious championship contender, so he's never needed to maximize points at every race. He just shoots for a win, and if that's not coming he occasionally blows off the points he does have (refusing FIA order to give back place he barged into so gets time penalty, etc.).

Lewis Hamilton has lots of experience showing up to every race with a Maximize-Points mindset. He doesn't let people push him around, but he is laser-focused on the "points war" instead of the "car-next-to-me battle". In contrast, it's not clear if Max's hyper-aggression with car-to-car fighting can translate into the same type of Maximize-Points attitude.

I'd love it if Max surprises me because we need someone to give Lewis a real run for the championship.

Max has, in interviews with Dutch TV, that he is intentionally taking that approach (also in unison with Red Bull top brass, who is famous for 'a 6th place is of no value to us') as long as he hasn't got a WDC-capable car. He has said to shift to a more long-game approach when the time is there to challenge. Hope that is not just bluff, but anyway, he has already made remarks on this specific point you make.

[NathanOlder]

It is all about the car. If they give him a car equal to Lewis' car I think Max will be able to take it but it will be hard. Don't forget that we haven't seen Lewis tested over a WDC since 2016 (and depending on how good the Mercedes is again this year, we might not see it again this year) as Bottas is no threat.

Lewis not tested since 2016? So Ferrari having a better car in lots of races. in 17 and 18 isn't a test??

[Pyrone89]

It is all about the car. If they give him a car equal to Lewis' car I think Max will be able to take it but it will be hard. Don't forget that we haven't seen Lewis tested over a WDC since 2016 (and depending on how good the Mercedes is again this year, we might not see it again this year) as Bottas is no threat.

Lewis not tested since 2016? So Ferrari having a better car in lots of races. in 17 and 18 isn't a test??

Yes, he has not been tested over the course of a whole season since 2016. And Vettel is not on par with the driving skills of Hamilton. As can also be seen by why Ferrari want to get rid of him. You can have a slightly better car in a part of the season, but with Vettel and Raikkonen behind the wheel [insert South Park voice] you're gonna have a bad time. Only Verstappen (and perhaps Leclerc, maybe, just maybe Sainz 2.0) is on or near Hamilton's driving level and they have an experience disadvantage.

[NathanOlder]

It is all about the car. If they give him a car equal to Lewis' car I think Max will be able to take it but it will be hard. Don't forget that we haven't seen Lewis tested over a WDC since 2016 (and depending on how good the Mercedes is again this year, we might not see it again this year) as Bottas is no threat.

Lewis not tested since 2016? So Ferrari having a better car in lots of races. in 17 and 18 isn't a test??

Yes, he has not been tested over the course of a whole season since 2016. And Vettel is not on par with the driving skills of Hamilton. As can also be seen by why Ferrari want to get rid of him. You can have a slightly better car in a part of the season, but with Vettel and Raikkonen behind the wheel [insert South Park voice] you're gonna have a bad time. Only Verstappen (and perhaps Leclerc, maybe, just maybe Sainz 2.0) is on Hamilton's driving level and they have an experience disadvantage.

I agree on the standard of drivers, but Just because it didn't go down to the last race, it doesn't mean he wasn't tested.

If that were the case, Michael Schumacher was tested in 94, 97, 98, 03, 06. And he only won 2 of those, so that makes him terrible if he won 2 and lost 3 when he was tested.

[Pyrone89]

Lewis not tested since 2016? So Ferrari having a better car in lots of races. in 17 and 18 isn't a test??

Yes, he has not been tested over the course of a whole season since 2016. And Vettel is not on par with the driving skills of Hamilton. As can also be seen by why Ferrari want to get rid of him. You can have a slightly better car in a part of the season, but with Vettel and Raikkonen behind the wheel [insert South Park voice] you're gonna have a bad time. Only Verstappen (and perhaps Leclerc, maybe, just maybe Sainz 2.0) is on Hamilton's driving level and they have an experience disadvantage.

I agree on the standard of drivers, but Just because it didn't go down to the last race, it doesn't mean he wasn't tested.

If that were the case, Michael Schumacher was tested in 94, 97, 98, 03, 06. And he only won 2 of those, so that makes him terrible if he won 2 and lost 3 when he was tested.

You are forgetting 99, 00, talking about being tested.
Lewis is that good that Vettel is not a test for him. Hopefully Verstappen (we are waiting for him to get a proper car) can finally test him again.The ease with which a young inexperienced Verstappen handled Vettel so far in 2016 and on (getting more and more experienced) is showing all the right signs for a proper WDC battle between Hamilton and Verstappen in equal machines to be EPIC. There is a reason Martin Brundle (and basically a lot of fans and experts) have been begging Mercedes to sign Verstappen and give them equal treatment so we can have a renewed Prost vs Senna (the reason Mercedes is not gonna do it is also because of what happened there).

And yes Michael was so good he was also often not tested. And then in 2002 and 2004 a dominant Ferrari came on top of that.

[NathanOlder]

Yes, he has not been tested over the course of a whole season since 2016. And Vettel is not on par with the driving skills of Hamilton. As can also be seen by why Ferrari want to get rid of him. You can have a slightly better car in a part of the season, but with Vettel and Raikkonen behind the wheel [insert South Park voice] you're gonna have a bad time. Only Verstappen (and perhaps Leclerc, maybe, just maybe Sainz 2.0) is on Hamilton's driving level and they have an experience disadvantage.

I agree on the standard of drivers, but Just because it didn't go down to the last race, it doesn't mean he wasn't tested.

If that were the case, Michael Schumacher was tested in 94, 97, 98, 03, 06. And he only won 2 of those, so that makes him terrible if he won 2 and lost 3 when he was tested.

You are forgetting 99, 00, talking about being tested.
Lewis is that good that Vettel is not a test for him. Hopefully Verstappen (we are waiting for him to get a proper car) can finally test him again.The ease with which a young inexperienced Verstappen handled Vettel so far in 2016 and on (getting more and more experienced) is showing all the right signs for a proper WDC battle between Hamilton and Verstappen in equal machines to be EPIC. There is a reason Martin Brundle (and basically a lot of fans and experts) have been begging Mercedes to sign Verstappen and give them equal treatment so we can have a renewed Prost vs Senna (the reason Mercedes is not gonna do it is also because of what happened there).

And yes Michael was so good he was also often not tested. And then in 2002 and 2004 a dominant Ferrari came on top of that.

I'm not forgetting 99 and 00. Neither have any relevance to the 'to the final race' for Michael.

[Dazed1]

"Pyrone and Nathan are wheel to wheel down the back straight..." Smells like racing in here.

[Pyrone89]

"Pyrone and Nathan are wheel to wheel down the back straight..." Smells like racing in here.

And he turns in!

[NathanOlder]

And Pyrone is turned around, and beached in the gravel. After the race the stewards deem it a racing incident, and it looks like the battle will continue throughout the season.

Please let this week go fast, I cannot wait any longer for the first race of the year.

[Andres125sx]

Top five is easy to do since the leading six cars are miles in front of the mid-field. So 3rd best car needs to be put in context.

I´d say top five is the less Max can do, third car so only four cars are faster, and he unquestionably is the favourite in RBR so probably the F1 driver who will have less pressure from his teammate. If he´s not fifth at least it would be a disaster

By that rationale LH's titles were easy to do as well

Yes

He has to beat his teammate, but the rest of the F1 grid have to beat his teammate but also several other drivers, some with faster cars so yes, by comparison LH titles were easy, same as Vettel, Senna, Prost, Mansell, Schumacher or any other who won with a dominant car. The hardest part is earing that seat. But this is F1, it´s not a driver competition but a team competition, they had the best car and if not the best one of the best drivers, and they won.

But I´m sure Hamilton drove much faster and performed much better (rookies mistakes aside) in 2007 than in 2019, even when he didn´t win the title. With best car the driver always have a margin to not take more risks than necessary, at least once his teammate is under control so he´s not constantly on the limit like in 2007 when there was no dominant car and 3-4 drivers were all so close there was no margin for anyone

[PlatinumZealot]

Mika Hakkinen sees the short season not playing into Max's favour too. Why he give Bottas a "clean chance" at beating Lewis this year.