Mercedes hasn’t achieved as much as they have so far by gambling... Bottas is a proven commodity for them, Russell isn’t (great prospect of course, but unluckily he has been driving a back marker car against “questionable” team mates to properly evaluate his performance).Wynters wrote:Ah, but that season of regs lock in is why it's such a good time. Mercedes are miles ahead of everyone and will remain so next season. That means that a new driver can under-perform quite happily next year with no negative consequences, they'll get easy podiums (even wins if Hamilton has a mishap) and the intense pressure that would accompany such a shift will be lessened. It also means that the design for the post-2021 season will be able to incorporate the existence of that new driver into its make up and gives the driver a year of experience and relationship building within the team before that's properly tested.SmallSoldier wrote: ↑06 Aug 2020, 17:38I don’t think it’s a great time to promote a driver, Russell which is probably the only one to be in that list still only has one complete season under his belt, he is still developing and maturing as a driver... With Hamilton probably locked in for at least 3 more years, there’s no need to rush Russell, especially next season where the regulations/cars will almost be the same.Wynters wrote:Agreed. Astute call.
I can't think of a better time to promote a junior driver and Mercedes have ignored it. I thought they were cleverer than that. He'll be 31 later this month, so 34+(?) when Hamilton leaves? I'm sure their rivals will be shaking in their boots at the idea of a physically declining Bottas leading the fight when Verstappen and Leclerc will be in their mid-twenties with half-a-decade of experience under their belts.
This season and next at Williams will be good for George and might be more prepared to make the jump in 2022 with the new set of regulations.
Not promoting means...Bottas/Russell in the 2023 (?) season? Bottas will be mid-thirties (older than Hulkenburg & Vettel are now) and Russell will have to spend a year driving a car that wasn't designed for him, in a team and car concept with which he is unfamiliar (e.g. how long did it take Ricciardo to get used to the different balance and brakes of the Renault), whilst Red Bull and Ferrari (et al) have had three years to close the gap.
Of the two scenarios, which sounds like the best option for integrating a new driver without weakening the team sufficiently for championships to be threatened?
With the rules changing for 2022, Mercedes doesn’t have any guarantees that they will be at the front of the grid, therefore 2021 is their last huge chance for another consecutive championship... Why would you change the formula that so far has worked so well? There is no reason to do it.
Russell could do a similar job to Bottas next season and help them ensure another WCC, nevertheless there is also the potential for a big gap between Hamilton and Russell which could be harming for George... Makes me think a bit of Vandoorne or Gasly, who both seem like great prospects (Gasly beat his team mates the way that George is doing it), but they were so far from their more seasoned/experienced team mates that unluckily hurt them more than helped been promoted so early into their careers.
If Russell is promoted in 2022, he will still have Hamilton as a team mate, but he will be more experienced and therefore it will be an easier transition... I don’t know where the Bottas / Russell in 2023 question or concern comes from... Most probably when Hamilton decides to call it quits, Mercedes will look for either a great #2 for Russell (if he proves himself in 2022) or a seasoned WDC material driver to replace Hamilton (Max for example)
If Mercedes has renewed Bottas for 2021 instead of pulling Russell, I’m sure they see more potential negatives than positives... They have more information to evaluate that decision than every single fan out there claiming for Russell to take the seat and most probably than not have put a lot more thought process into it also, are questioning now without any actual data and only our perception of how good a driver is their decision?
Finally... The trend in the last 5 years to promote very young inexperienced drivers to top teams seems to have created an expectation that someone deserves or has to be in a top seat without proving themselves in the sport... Not every driver is a Max Verstappen, who spend a season and a half at Toro Rosso (and probably would have been there at least 2 seasons if not for Kvyat having a terrible beginning of the season in 2016 and potentially even 3 seasons depending on how well RIC and KVY performed that season... Yes, we have Leclerc arguably doing great at Ferrari and Norris at Mclaren (although, unluckily Mclaren isn’t a top team today)... I guess I’m just against the expectation that every young driver that shows promise automatically deserves a seat in a top team.
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