Why Verstappen will NOT win in 2020

[Sieper]

Even in this race, but now then with the roles reversed, no Lewis Max clash yet.

[Big Tea]

RBR strategy usually is one of the best if not the best, but GBR1 mistake could be the difference between winning or not, at least if Mercedes problems with tires are repeated on some other GPs

Today:
Hamilton 107 points
Verstappen 77 points

Those 30 points difference may be 16 if they´d have kept Max on track instead of pitting for the fast lap, as he´d have scored 7 more points and Lewis 7 less. 14 points can easily be the difference between becoming WDC or not


Now imagine if RBR would have win last 2 GPs, things would be pretty interesting

It's only five races. And Hamilton has an equal status teamate whereas Max has a number 2 so Max has all of the best RBR points to himself and will be always closw in the points to the Mercedes drivers simple Maths.

The 70th GP was a performance anomaly where the Mercdese drivers could not drive the car how it should be driven. So basically a handicap for them. Max only will have a chance if these conditions become more common. In essense the RedBull will become the dominant car if hot races become the norm.

30 points is four wins difference, but again, Max is still not considered to be in the championship fight yet. He and Lewis have been racing on two different peices of track so far.

Merc has Botas to interfere here taking second place from Max where possible. Merc has the option (note I said option not need or will) of slipping Botas back behind Hamilton if needed. They can gain driver points here without losing team points

[Manoah2u]

To praphrase... One win does not a championship make

literally the topic title is about a win.
if that's actually about the 2020 championship, which it seems suggested, let's be honest,
that should be pointed out much clearer.

that said, Mario Isola - the big boss of Pirelli - mentioned that the strain and wear on the tires will be very bad again for Spain. This means we can expect more hardship for Mercedes, and since RedBull seems to have far, FAR less hardship compared to Mercedes in these circumstances, chances are we're going to see not just a repeat of the 70th Anniversary Silverstone GP, but a combo with the week before, where tires simply gave way all of a sudden.

Worst case scenario for Mercedes this means they could find themself in seeing two cars outside of the points if they get tire failure for both cars. It's clear that RedBull is the fastest team right after Mercedes. NOT Ferrari NOR Mclaren NOR the Pink Mercs. The latter ones are close together, but the only team genuinly in the 'neighbourhood' of Mercedes has been RedBull.

Mercedes surely will still be a qually monster, but in the race, where it matters, they're much more exposed.

I believe a win for Max in Barcelona - IF there is no accident AND if his engine doesn't give - is very possible, without Mercedes having delamination issues.

[dans79]

if that's actually about the 2020 championship, which it seems suggested, let's be honest,

The first sentence of the first post.

Every first-time champion goes through a stage of learning to win a championship almost akin to learning to ride bicycle.

Seems pretty obvious to me!

[PlatinumZealot]

When Max starts asking where Lewis is over the radio, that's when I know it's on.

[Sieper]

Yes, it is about the championship. And then after the first few weekends it became about not even getting one win. Which indeed seemed likely at that point.

[PlatinumZealot]

Ok. Horner still thinks there is a chance.

https://www.planetf1.com/news/christian ... pen-title/

He touches on my earlier point about Championship experience, but relates it to the team itself than the driver.

Horner points to the fact that people with Championship-winning experience remain in the team as a reason why Red Bull can return to those heady days.

“We have of course strengthened ourselves here and there but I can still mainly see the same faces as back then,” he said.

“All those people are very motivated to get into a title fight again and are doing everything they can.”

[raymondu999]

Experience always helps. That's not exactly amazing insight though.

[Wass85]

Going by how many years they have been in F1 Verstappen is driving to a standard Hamilton can only dream of.

I don't think I need to remind anyone what Hamilton's 2011 was like, Max at the same stage in his career is driving beautifully.

Lewis' performances actually got worse from 2007-2011.

[NathanOlder]

Going by how many years they have been in F1 Verstappen is driving to a standard Hamilton can only dream of.

I don't think I need to remind anyone what Hamilton's 2011 was like, Max at the same stage in his career is driving beautifully.

Lewis' performances actually got worse from 2007-2011.

Lets wait and see. Lewis won 4 races in his 6th year. Wonder if Max can match that ? It will have to be Max's best ever season to match that. Time will tell.

[Wass85]

Going by how many years they have been in F1 Verstappen is driving to a standard Hamilton can only dream of.

I don't think I need to remind anyone what Hamilton's 2011 was like, Max at the same stage in his career is driving beautifully.

Lewis' performances actually got worse from 2007-2011.

Lets wait and see. Lewis won 4 races in his 6th year. Wonder if Max can match that ? It will have to be Max's best ever season to match that. Time will tell.

And was beaten easily by his teammate in the 2nd best car on the grid that could arguably be classed as the best car towards the end of the season.

Max is fighting against a car that is head and shoulders above his, Silverstone was an outlier.

[Wass85]

Going by how many years they have been in F1 Verstappen is driving to a standard Hamilton can only dream of.

I don't think I need to remind anyone what Hamilton's 2011 was like, Max at the same stage in his career is driving beautifully.

Lewis' performances actually got worse from 2007-2011.

Lets wait and see. Lewis won 4 races in his 6th year. Wonder if Max can match that ? It will have to be Max's best ever season to match that. Time will tell.

And was beaten easily by his teammate in the 2nd best car on the grid that could arguably be classed as the best car towards the end of the season.

Max is fighting against a car that is head and shoulders above his, Silverstone was an outlier.

Edit to add: You're talking about 2012? Yes Hamilton had a great season but the competition was much closer than 2020, I mean how many different winners did we have that year?

[NathanOlder]

Of course I'm talking about 2012. you said about the same stage of their career. So as Max is in his 6th year, I looked at Lewis' 6th year. A year Lewis won 4 races, would have won more if not for reliability. He also finishes ahead of a world champion in the same car. Can't have been too bad surely?

[Moore77]

To praphrase... One win does not a championship make

literally the topic title is about a win.
if that's actually about the 2020 championship, which it seems suggested, let's be honest,
that should be pointed out much clearer.

that said, Mario Isola - the big boss of Pirelli - mentioned that the strain and wear on the tires will be very bad again for Spain. This means we can expect more hardship for Mercedes, and since RedBull seems to have far, FAR less hardship compared to Mercedes in these circumstances, chances are we're going to see not just a repeat of the 70th Anniversary Silverstone GP, but a combo with the week before, where tires simply gave way all of a sudden.

Worst case scenario for Mercedes this means they could find themself in seeing two cars outside of the points if they get tire failure for both cars. It's clear that RedBull is the fastest team right after Mercedes. NOT Ferrari NOR Mclaren NOR the Pink Mercs. The latter ones are close together, but the only team genuinly in the 'neighbourhood' of Mercedes has been RedBull.

Mercedes surely will still be a qually monster, but in the race, where it matters, they're much more exposed.

I believe a win for Max in Barcelona - IF there is no accident AND if his engine doesn't give - is very possible, without Mercedes having delamination issues.

Sorry, but don't you think all this came out as an overconfident and irrational bet, based on an outlier performance of Silverstone2?

[Big Tea]

To praphrase... One win does not a championship make

literally the topic title is about a win.
if that's actually about the 2020 championship, which it seems suggested, let's be honest,
that should be pointed out much clearer.

that said, Mario Isola - the big boss of Pirelli - mentioned that the strain and wear on the tires will be very bad again for Spain. This means we can expect more hardship for Mercedes, and since RedBull seems to have far, FAR less hardship compared to Mercedes in these circumstances, chances are we're going to see not just a repeat of the 70th Anniversary Silverstone GP, but a combo with the week before, where tires simply gave way all of a sudden.

Worst case scenario for Mercedes this means they could find themself in seeing two cars outside of the points if they get tire failure for both cars. It's clear that RedBull is the fastest team right after Mercedes. NOT Ferrari NOR Mclaren NOR the Pink Mercs. The latter ones are close together, but the only team genuinly in the 'neighbourhood' of Mercedes has been RedBull.

Mercedes surely will still be a qually monster, but in the race, where it matters, they're much more exposed.

I believe a win for Max in Barcelona - IF there is no accident AND if his engine doesn't give - is very possible, without Mercedes having delamination issues.

Sorry, but don't you think all this came out as an overconfident and irrational bet, based on an outlier performance of Silverstone2?

If there is one definite we can take from a Merc fail, its that we are not likely to see it repeated. They were caught out when they used up tyres in practice as much as anything and I doubt they have been sleeping since that race.
Silverstone 2 was overcompensation for the first fail.