Will Schumacher's Race Win and WDC records be broken?

[PlatinumZealot]

One of the jobs of the team is to get the best driver available.

Hamilton was the best driver available in 2012 and is still the best driver avilable today. Argument done!

Think you could make arguments for max, Ricardo and Alonso being as good.

Max was at the teet in 2012 and Alonso was (and still is) on the Mercedes black-list. Ricciardo was in his Toro Rosso duking it out with Vergne(?). No way Mercedes were looking at those guys.

[e30ernest]

You can't say that. Lets say they ran some guy that always finished behind either Bottas or Rosberg. That ups Bottas/Rosberg points. They probably finsh with the same or more points than Hamilton for the given year.

The records are going to be his but does it have any corelation to how good he is ? no.

He'll keep the records forever in my opinion cause with the changes coming. It will be hard to repeat in the coming F1 envirnoment. All those titles were purchased by Merc. They out spent everyone with the possible exception to Ferrari. So really it was a race against Ferrari (4 drivers). Well really 3 cause Rai was was a driver choosen to finish behind Vettel. All the other teams where in another series.

I kind of wish they had another podium for the 4th 5th and 6th Drivers. That's where the real excitement is and we could ignore the bore up front.

The question was whether or not Hamilton's teammates would have won the WDC had Hamilton not been at Mercedes. So it looks like (to me) Rosberg would have for 2014-2016 and Bottas for 2019. Vettel would have gotten 2017 (close to Bottas yes so it could go either way) and 2018 (not even a contest against Bottas). Even if that person ran behind Bottas, I don't think he would have gotten Vettel on 2018.

I answered the question. You take hamilton out and Bottas and Rosberg probably win instead. Simply cause they gain points from hamilton not being there. There were alot of Merc 1 2 finishes. More than half where led by Hamilton. You reverse that and the not hamilton driver wins.

So I'm going to look into the races where Bottas finished behind Lewis and bump him up a place (as Lewis magically disappeared). I will do the same for Vettel in this case because if he finished behind Lewis and ahead of Bottas, he'll probably end up a place higher as well.

2017
Bottas:
AUS - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 3pts
CHN - 6th bumped to 5th + 2pts
BHR - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 3pts
RUS - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
ESP - RET (no change)
MON - 4th, Lewis 7th (no change)
CAN - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
AZE - 2nd, Lewis 5th (no change)
AUT - 1st (no change)
GBR - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
HUN - 3rd, Lewis 4th (no change)
BEL - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
ITA - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
SIN - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 3pts
MAL - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
JPN - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
USA - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
MEX - 2nd, Lewis 9th (no change)
BRA - 2nd, Lewis 4th (no change)
ABU - 1st, Lewis 2nd (no change)

Points change = +44 points
Total Year End = 349

Vettel
AUS - 1st, Lewis 2nd (no change)
CHN - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
BHR - 1st, Lewis 2nd (no change)
RUS - 2nd, Lewis 4th (no change)
ESP - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
MON - 1st, Lewis 2nd (no change)
CAN - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
AZE - 4th, Lewis 5th (no change)
AUT - 2nd, Lewis 4th (no change)
GBR - 7th bumped to 6th + 2pts
HUN - 1st, Lewis 4th (no change)
BEL - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
ITA - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 3pts
SIN - RET (no change)
MAL - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
JPN - RET (no change)
USA - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
MEX - 4th, Lewis 9th (no change)
BRA - 1st, Lewis 4th (no change)
ABU - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 2pts

Points change = +41 points
Total Year End = 358 points (WINNER)


2018
Bottas
AUS - 8th bumped to 7th + 2pts
BHR - 2nd, Lewis 3rd (no change)
CHN - 2nd, Lewis 4th (no change)
AZE - 14th bumped to 13th (no change)
ESP - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
MON - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
CAN - 2nd, Lewis 5th (no change)
FRA - 7th bumped to 6th + 2pts
AUT - RET (no change)
GBR - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
GER - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
HUN - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
BEL - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
ITA - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 3pts
SIN - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
RUS - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
JPN - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
USA - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
MEX - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
BRA - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
ABU - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts

Points change = +56 points
Total Year End = 303 points

Vettel
AUS - 1st (no change)
BHR - 1st (no change)
CHN - 8th bumped to 7th + 2pts
AZE - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
ESP - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
MON - 2nd, Lewis 3rd (no change)
CAN - 1st (no change)
FRA - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
AUT - 3rd, Lewis RET (no change)
GBR - 1st (no change)
GER - RET (no change)
HUN - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
BEL - 1st (no change)
ITA - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
SIN - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 3pts
RUS - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 3pts
JPN - 6th bumped to 5th + 2pts
USA - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
MEX - 2nd, Lewis 4th (no change)
BRA - 6th bumped to 5th + 2pts
ABU - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts

Points change = +40 points
Total Year End = 360 points (WINNER)

So Vettel will still take 2017 and 18 if Hamilton magically disappeared. Bottas would take 2019. Rosberg stands the same, he'd take 2014-16.

Going through those years again, Hamilton's consistency is amazing here.

[NathanOlder]

Personally I find it hard to compare Nico to Valtteri. The Mercedes in 14-16 was a mile better than the next best car. Bottas has had cars that were described as Diva's ect. Then add to that the 17 and 18 Ferrari's were a match to the Mercedes. Then in 19 the Ferrari took plenty of points of Mercedes in the middle of the season when Ferrari were apparently up to tricks.
Mercedes this season is getting back to the level of domination that Nico had in his Hybrid Era Mercedes. As for drivers, Vettel and Ricciardo have both been there the whole time in front running cars. Then you have Alonso and Max. Nico had Alonso in the field in poor cars, very poor cars. Bottas has Max in a pretty good car. So Bottas has a real rough end of the deal.

After all this, I would say Nico is/was better than Bottas, but Bottas is no way as bad as some people say.

[e30ernest]

Personally I find it hard to compare Nico to Valtteri. The Mercedes in 14-16 was a mile better than the next best car. Bottas has had cars that were described as Diva's ect. Then add to that the 17 and 18 Ferrari's were a match to the Mercedes. Then in 19 the Ferrari took plenty of points of Mercedes in the middle of the season when Ferrari were apparently up to tricks.
Mercedes this season is getting back to the level of domination that Nico had in his Hybrid Era Mercedes. As for drivers, Vettel and Ricciardo have both been there the whole time in front running cars. Then you have Alonso and Max. Nico had Alonso in the field in poor cars, very poor cars. Bottas has Max in a pretty good car. So Bottas has a real rough end of the deal.

After all this, I would say Nico is/was better than Bottas, but Bottas is no way as bad as some people say.

Yeah I don't think Bottas is especially bad. The above just shows how much of a better driver Lewis though IMHO. Without a driver at Lewis' level, the Mercs wouldn't have secured the WDC for at least 2 seasons.

[diffuser]

The question was whether or not Hamilton's teammates would have won the WDC had Hamilton not been at Mercedes. So it looks like (to me) Rosberg would have for 2014-2016 and Bottas for 2019. Vettel would have gotten 2017 (close to Bottas yes so it could go either way) and 2018 (not even a contest against Bottas). Even if that person ran behind Bottas, I don't think he would have gotten Vettel on 2018.

I answered the question. You take hamilton out and Bottas and Rosberg probably win instead. Simply cause they gain points from hamilton not being there. There were alot of Merc 1 2 finishes. More than half where led by Hamilton. You reverse that and the not hamilton driver wins.

So I'm going to look into the races where Bottas finished behind Lewis and bump him up a place (as Lewis magically disappeared). I will do the same for Vettel in this case because if he finished behind Lewis and ahead of Bottas, he'll probably end up a place higher as well.

2017
Bottas:
AUS - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 3pts
CHN - 6th bumped to 5th + 2pts
BHR - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 3pts
RUS - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
ESP - RET (no change)
MON - 4th, Lewis 7th (no change)
CAN - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
AZE - 2nd, Lewis 5th (no change)
AUT - 1st (no change)
GBR - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
HUN - 3rd, Lewis 4th (no change)
BEL - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
ITA - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
SIN - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 3pts
MAL - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
JPN - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
USA - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
MEX - 2nd, Lewis 9th (no change)
BRA - 2nd, Lewis 4th (no change)
ABU - 1st, Lewis 2nd (no change)

Points change = +44 points
Total Year End = 349

Vettel
AUS - 1st, Lewis 2nd (no change)
CHN - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
BHR - 1st, Lewis 2nd (no change)
RUS - 2nd, Lewis 4th (no change)
ESP - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
MON - 1st, Lewis 2nd (no change)
CAN - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
AZE - 4th, Lewis 5th (no change)
AUT - 2nd, Lewis 4th (no change)
GBR - 7th bumped to 6th + 2pts
HUN - 1st, Lewis 4th (no change)
BEL - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
ITA - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 3pts
SIN - RET (no change)
MAL - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
JPN - RET (no change)
USA - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
MEX - 4th, Lewis 9th (no change)
BRA - 1st, Lewis 4th (no change)
ABU - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 2pts

Points change = +41 points
Total Year End = 358 points (WINNER)


2018
Bottas
AUS - 8th bumped to 7th + 2pts
BHR - 2nd, Lewis 3rd (no change)
CHN - 2nd, Lewis 4th (no change)
AZE - 14th bumped to 13th (no change)
ESP - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
MON - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
CAN - 2nd, Lewis 5th (no change)
FRA - 7th bumped to 6th + 2pts
AUT - RET (no change)
GBR - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
GER - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
HUN - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
BEL - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
ITA - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 3pts
SIN - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
RUS - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
JPN - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
USA - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
MEX - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
BRA - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
ABU - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts

Points change = +56 points
Total Year End = 303 points

Vettel
AUS - 1st (no change)
BHR - 1st (no change)
CHN - 8th bumped to 7th + 2pts
AZE - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
ESP - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
MON - 2nd, Lewis 3rd (no change)
CAN - 1st (no change)
FRA - 5th bumped to 4th + 2pts
AUT - 3rd, Lewis RET (no change)
GBR - 1st (no change)
GER - RET (no change)
HUN - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts
BEL - 1st (no change)
ITA - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
SIN - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 3pts
RUS - 3rd bumped to 2nd + 3pts
JPN - 6th bumped to 5th + 2pts
USA - 4th bumped to 3rd + 3pts
MEX - 2nd, Lewis 4th (no change)
BRA - 6th bumped to 5th + 2pts
ABU - 2nd bumped to 1st + 7pts

Points change = +40 points
Total Year End = 360 points (WINNER)

So Vettel will still take 2017 and 18 if Hamilton magically disappeared. Bottas would take 2019. Rosberg stands the same, he'd take 2014-16.

Going through those years again, Hamilton's consistency is amazing here.

I commend you on doing all that work. One more thing is you have to add a Rai type driver for Merc that would slot in right behind Bottas and take away points from Vettel.

[e30ernest]

I commend you on doing all that work. One more thing is you have to add a Rai type driver for Merc that would slot in right behind Bottas and take away points from Vettel.

Thanks!

A "RAI" type driver would probably have a negligible effect here. Assuming that when you mean "RAI type driver" that would be a number 2, or a driver with slightly less performance to Bottas. In that case, he'd likely finish behind Bottas and therefore behind Vettel most of the time. If he were to be an equal to Bottas or finish slightly ahead of Bottas, then he'd simply take more points away from Bottas than from Vettel.

[Ringleheim]

I went with both records will be broken, which I never, ever, ever, thought would be the case!

Hamilton is still at the top of his game, and right now--and into the foreseeable future--there is only 1 car capable of winning championships, and that is the Mercedes.

Of the 2 drivers there, Hamilton is soundly better than Bottas.

Hamilton is going to pick up a WHOLE BUNCH more cheap wins and championships, most likely.

The only thing that can stop him is himself. I have no idea how long he wants to keep driving, and if it's really important to him to be All Time No. 1 or not.

I think he will continue for some time to come, and I do think it IS important to him!

These are the easiest championships anyone has won in the last 30 years right now.

They are much easier than Schumi shattering the field in, say, 2002.

[ringo]

I think the upcoming regulations may actually play to Hamilton's skills of wheel to wheel racing and adaptability.
When you have the budget cuts and cars more equally matched; Hamilton's abilities will shine through.
All we have to do is observe how he drives against his teammates in equal cars to understand that his versatility will give him and edge.
For those who think there is or are equally talented drivers on the grid; i don't think you fully appreciate Hamilton's arsenal of skill sets.
He may still be winning championships (maybe not every year) for the next 8 years of his career. A top team will try to see what they can do with him, and even if its a 25% hit rate; that's at least another two to 3 championships. So 10 is very possible.

[e30ernest]

These are the easiest championships anyone has won in the last 30 years right now.

They are much easier than Schumi shattering the field in, say, 2002.

This season and the next perhaps are among the easiest he'll win but I think the previous seasons were a lot closer. As I showed in my 2017/18 breakdown above, a lesser driver than Hamilton would probably not have won that championship (maybe a Rosberg would, but certainly not a Bottas). 2014/15 he also had to beat his teammate on merit.

It's easy to chuck it all up to the car, but I think Hamilton made a very real difference here.

[PlatinumZealot]

Easy is relative. Bottas is no slouch. He had a similar speed margin that Alonso had on Massa.

[Wass85]

Easy is relative. Bottas is no slouch. He had a similar speed margin that Alonso had on Massa.

Did he though, I think Massa out qualified Bottas about the same number of times as Alonso with about 20 races less to do so?

[Shrieker]

When will it stop, 150 wins, 10 titles?

I think that may be a step too far for him.

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Hamilton went well into his forties without any hiatus. Schumacher did it after being absent for many years, and although the argument that he just wasn't the same could be made, he still wasn't too shabby. Aaaand it was after a bad neck injury.

[PlatinumZealot]

Easy is relative. Bottas is no slouch. He had a similar speed margin that Alonso had on Massa.

Did he though, I think Massa out qualified Bottas about the same number of times as Alonso with about 20 races less to do so?

Check your facts. Bottas 4 tenths faster in 2014 and 2015 on average, 3 tenths the same in 2016. That was young boy Bottas. He is a man now and faster.

[Wass85]

Easy is relative. Bottas is no slouch. He had a similar speed margin that Alonso had on Massa.

Did he though, I think Massa out qualified Bottas about the same number of times as Alonso with about 20 races less to do so?

Check your facts. Bottas 4 tenths faster in 2014 and 2015 on average, 3 tenths the same in 2016. That was young boy Bottas. He is a man now and faster.

Oh I did check my facts.

Qualy H2H:
Alonso - 59 Massa - 18
Bottas - 39 Massa - 16

[Wass85]

Did he though, I think Massa out qualified Bottas about the same number of times as Alonso with about 20 races less to do so?

Check your facts. Bottas 4 tenths faster in 2014 and 2015 on average, 3 tenths the same in 2016. That was young boy Bottas. He is a man now and faster.

Oh I did check my facts.

Qualy H2H:
Alonso - 59 Massa - 18
Bottas - 39 Massa - 16

That doesn't make sense because the more Bottas grew up the slower he was relative to Massa.