It's not like you can break the law of physics with time. If they can make work a more advanced chemistry the there will be a big leap, if not then things'll change very little.godlameroso wrote: ↑17 Nov 2020, 23:08At current development rates, electric motors + batteries will have comparable weight and better form factor than an ICE in about 50 years. If we pour resources into developing batteries maybe 30 years. Developing ICE's are a stop gap while you develop your electric cars. Everyone is going electric, in the end electric motors are just more efficient, the only limiting factor is batteries.
You totally missed the point I was making . . . very soon EV charging will be very convenient, even for those where "charging at home" is not possible.Big Tea wrote: ↑17 Nov 2020, 00:14Same problem. 'At home' is probably not possible for about 80% of people.gruntguru wrote: ↑17 Nov 2020, 00:06- Fast charging will be down to 5 minutes before combustion cars disappear from the roads.Big Tea wrote: ↑16 Nov 2020, 21:45Even if fast charging comes down to 15 to 20 min, that means the car has to be there for probably 20 to 30 min. Look at the throughput becoming a tailback in a filling station if a tanker is in. and that is with a 'stopped time' of 5 min max.
Even if half the bays in a supermarkets have charging, I don't think I would be happy to depend on finding one in any reasonable time. I have tried several electic cars, and hope it does become viable as I like them.
- A large proportion of charging will still be done overnight at home so filling stations will not do 100% of "filling" as is the case for liquid fuel.
- Charging stations will appear everywhere there are car parks - shopping centres, workplaces, kerbside etc - again reducing the reliance on "filling stations"
- In a large number of instances, "filling stations" will not be used to "fill up". It will be a case of - my battery is nearly flat - drop in and buy a coffee - charge the car for 3 minutes - enough to get me home where the charging is cheaper and slower (good for battery life).
Those who live on 'main roads' as they are called in UK, blocks, tenements or anywhere you can not park off the road and where people do not walk. Topping up is fine if you have some where todo your 'main' charge.
Compared to OZ, you live in EV paradise. Lack of Gov't incentives, wide open spaces and consequent slow uptake means charging facilities lag the rest of the world. OTOH the majority of Australians can park on private property making home charging possible. Widespread rooftop solar makes the power cheaper for many.Big Tea wrote: ↑17 Nov 2020, 13:43Having said all that, I was surprised to find how many charging points there are in UK.Big Tea wrote: ↑17 Nov 2020, 00:45Show me! If I cant see them I will not buy onemzso wrote: ↑17 Nov 2020, 00:27
I don't think you're getting his point. Wherever people park there can be chargers. Laying some cables and installing a some charging posts is not rocket science.
Plus EVs won't just appear for everyone at a snap of a finger. As the number of cars start to increase chargers will appear on a building/neighborhood/community/precinct whatever scale, if home charging is not possible.
(edit. sorry come over far more bolshi than i intended )
https://www.zap-map.com/statistics/#points
However, within 10 miles of me there are 11 including those on the motorway, and those at the dealer.
So very selective.
It will come, but it is one of the chicken and egg things. People will not have cars they can not charge easily and they will not build charging infrastructure until people are using it.gruntguru wrote: ↑18 Nov 2020, 05:20You totally missed the point I was making . . . very soon EV charging will be very convenient, even for those where "charging at home" is not possible.Big Tea wrote: ↑17 Nov 2020, 00:14Same problem. 'At home' is probably not possible for about 80% of people.gruntguru wrote: ↑17 Nov 2020, 00:06
- Fast charging will be down to 5 minutes before combustion cars disappear from the roads.
- A large proportion of charging will still be done overnight at home so filling stations will not do 100% of "filling" as is the case for liquid fuel.
- Charging stations will appear everywhere there are car parks - shopping centres, workplaces, kerbside etc - again reducing the reliance on "filling stations"
- In a large number of instances, "filling stations" will not be used to "fill up". It will be a case of - my battery is nearly flat - drop in and buy a coffee - charge the car for 3 minutes - enough to get me home where the charging is cheaper and slower (good for battery life).
Those who live on 'main roads' as they are called in UK, blocks, tenements or anywhere you can not park off the road and where people do not walk. Topping up is fine if you have some where todo your 'main' charge.
Even 2030 is optimistic. In my opinion there's one mayor issue especially in cities, the electrical grid. You can build thousands of charging points rather quickly, but unfortunately the electricity doesn't come to them by magic. It needs infrastructure to support the demand. Not just the production facilities i.e. powerplants but also transformer stations, power lines and so on. Imagine a parking garage for 200 cars and just 50 EVs charge there with 100kW each...that means 5MW of power. That would normally be enough power for about 800 households. Most existing electrical hardware will not support such peaks in demand in a very limited area.Big Tea wrote: ↑18 Nov 2020, 16:43I had an original idea of it being 'up to speed' well before 2030, now I am doubting it.
Its only 10 years, but it will involve disrupting so much of the existing infrastructure making it more expensive in not only direct cost but things like planning and obtaining sites.
As I said, I hope the optimists are right and I am wrong.
As this guy says, look back 100 years to before 'electrification' and imagine what they would have said if we told them about today. He also points out the advance in 10 years back thengruntguru wrote: ↑18 Nov 2020, 23:15Being "up to speed" really only means 50% penetration. 10 years is plenty of time to get to a 50% EV fleet - the infrastructure will roll out incrementally.
Power grids will experience major disruption anyway with new (renewable) generation and storage sites popping up everywhere and a lot of distributed "micro-generation" (eg rooftop solar) and micro-storage (eg home batteries and EV's as grid storage).
Apologies, I think I was the instigator. I do try, but can't seem to follow a simple rule
Obviously pointless superchargers won't be the norm. Rather overnight top-up charging.Dr. Acula wrote: ↑18 Nov 2020, 22:15Even 2030 is optimistic. In my opinion there's one mayor issue especially in cities, the electrical grid. You can build thousands of charging points rather quickly, but unfortunately the electricity doesn't come to them by magic. It needs infrastructure to support the demand. Not just the production facilities i.e. powerplants but also transformer stations, power lines and so on. Imagine a parking garage for 200 cars and just 50 EVs charge there with 100kW each...that means 5MW of power. That would normally be enough power for about 800 households. Most existing electrical hardware will not support such peaks in demand in a very limited area.Big Tea wrote: ↑18 Nov 2020, 16:43I had an original idea of it being 'up to speed' well before 2030, now I am doubting it.
Its only 10 years, but it will involve disrupting so much of the existing infrastructure making it more expensive in not only direct cost but things like planning and obtaining sites.
As I said, I hope the optimists are right and I am wrong.
I would like to see VW in F1, but my immediate reaction to seeing this was... Oh! not again.AMG.Tzan wrote: ↑25 Nov 2020, 16:23"Big manufacturer to enter F1 in 2023"
This is a Greek car site claiming that none other than VW is ready to enter F1 in 2023! It says that they don't know with which of their brands but it claims that because of Stefano Domenicali taking over at the head of Liberty Media, VW now is ready to enter F1!
Although i don't believe it's true, since i haven't found anyone else on the internet mentioning this thing and they don't even say where they've found this information, has anyone in hear seen or heard anything like this??
Of course I'd be happy to see VW in F1 in 2023 but I don't think any manufacturer (specially VW ) is so silly to throw so much money since the engine regulations are going to change come 2026!
https://www.caranddriver.gr/eidiseis/ar ... m=facebook