Toto Wolf - Formula 1 should be leading the pack in sustainable fuels and biofuels instead of electric

[DChemTech]

ICE is dead, it just doesn't know it yet. In 20 years the ICE will be a dinosaur used only by people with classic cars. The rest will be in battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell powered cars.

Do you honestly believe this time frame? Or was there a little hyperbole in your post?

In terms of usage maybe not, in terms of development - yes. Probably sooner, even.

[Just_a_fan]

ICE is dead, it just doesn't know it yet. In 20 years the ICE will be a dinosaur used only by people with classic cars. The rest will be in battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell powered cars.

Anyone who thinks F1 will go down the route of loud ICE motors again is going to be very disappointed.

Do you know something we don't regarding batteries?

You're asking the wrong question. The issue isn't a technical one, it's a political one. ICE will increasingly be marginalised and then banned by politicians in response to climate change pressure. The initial salvos in this have already been fired.

I guess in places like the US and Australia, where climate change is still very much a "not proved" in the minds of many with heavy financial ties to fossil fuels, ICE will hang on longer. But in Europe and other places, the move to non-ICE systems will accelerate. I don't see F1 bucking that trend.

If you can make synthetic alcohol based fuels than have similar power density to gasoline they'll burn cleaner and reduce pollution.

And the feed stock for this fuel comes from where? Are we going to run cars on fuel made from land that should be growing food?

[Just_a_fan]

ICE is dead, it just doesn't know it yet. In 20 years the ICE will be a dinosaur used only by people with classic cars. The rest will be in battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell powered cars.

Anyone who thinks F1 will go down the route of loud ICE motors again is going to be very disappointed.

Couldn't disagree more; if F1 ever wakes up and realizes it is a wasteful form of sports entertainment, screaming cars will be back. The spectacle would be increased that much more if the only place you'll see/hear ICE as it the F1 race.

F1 is wasteful. It's run by people with an eye on the wider politics and that is why they won't go back to the engines of the 90s.

The screaming engines are a thing of the past. Young people are much less interested in such things. And the way that F1 stays viable is by staying relevant to the coming generation not to the dying generation.

I love the sound of the old cars as much as the anyone, but I'm realistic enough to know that those days are gone and aren't coming back.

[Just_a_fan]

ICE is dead, it just doesn't know it yet. In 20 years the ICE will be a dinosaur used only by people with classic cars. The rest will be in battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell powered cars.

Do you honestly believe this time frame? Or was there a little hyperbole in your post?

It might not be exactly 20 years, but that's the sort of time frame we're looking at, yes. People are moving to hybrids and EV now. In 20 years, no one will be buying a pure ICE, many won't even be buying hybrid. Many will be buying pure EV as they realise that they don't need the range after all. In some jurisdictions, new ICE will be banned within 20 years. The UK is currently proposing banning new pure-ICE from 2030. Hydrogen is coming back in to focus as people realise that "clean" transport will be the only allowed system in the near future. Hydrogen is best used in a fuel cell, not burned in an ICE.

Look at the current pandemic - many people have moved to working from home and many will remain doing so afterwards as companies realise how much cheaper it is to have employees own their own offices rather than own/rent big buildings to put them all in. Those people won't be commuting, car use patterns are and will continue to change.

To think the norm of 2019 will be the norm in 2039 is naive IMHO.

[Just_a_fan]

For batteries to be a better alternative to developing the ICE, they would have to weigh half as much, have twice as much power and charge in half the time, for half the cost of 2015 commercial level batteries. Since then in 5 years we've done maybe 10% of those 3 goals, given diminishing returns, limits of current battery chemistry, we can probably do 30% in 15-20 years. There would have to be a chemistry or manufacturing breakthrough to accelerate that time frame, otherwise the ICE still has another 50 years, easy.

Battery-electric cars are already competing with ICE in every category eg

Porsche Taycan
Mercedes EQC
Tesla Model 3
Tesla Roadster (Mk2)

While they can certainly improve in they ways you mention - they don't HAVE TO.

They only need to get cheaper.

Only one of those cars is even close to attainable by an average person, and if they live in a building and don't have a garage, they better invest in a hecking long extension cable.

The key point is that it's not just going to be EV. It's going to be fuel cell too. With a fuel cell, you don't need a long extension lead out to your car: you refuel it just like you do with dino-juice.

[nzjrs]

ICE is dead, it just doesn't know it yet. In 20 years the ICE will be a dinosaur used only by people with classic cars. The rest will be in battery electric or hydrogen fuel cell powered cars.

Do you honestly believe this time frame? Or was there a little hyperbole in your post?

It might not be exactly 20 years, but that's the sort of time frame we're looking at, yes. People are moving to hybrids and EV now. In 20 years, no one will be buying a pure ICE, many won't even be buying hybrid. Many will be buying pure EV as they realise that they don't need the range after all. In some jurisdictions, new ICE will be banned within 20 years. The UK is currently proposing banning new pure-ICE from 2030. Hydrogen is coming back in to focus as people realise that "clean" transport will be the only allowed system in the near future. Hydrogen is best used in a fuel cell, not burned in an ICE.

Look at the current pandemic - many people have moved to working from home and many will remain doing so afterwards as companies realise how much cheaper it is to have employees own their own offices rather than own/rent big buildings to put them all in. Those people won't be commuting, car use patterns are and will continue to change.

To think the norm of 2019 will be the norm in 2039 is naive IMHO.

I think your timeframe is wildly unrealistic, but then again that depends on who one counts as 'people'. I'm often in eastern europe (and I expect this is also true in non-wealthy countries throughout) and the thought of widescale movement to EV in 20 years is optimistic.

I'd agree with you perhaps if your estimate was the G6, or the G8, or maybe G8+5 +/- USA, but its not like that in all of europe, let-alone the world.

On one hand, I agree with your assessment of the pandemic - those that can work from home will be given continued incentives to do so because companies see a cost saving now. The other story of the pandemic is the devastation of the (hand)working class for whom remote work isn't a thing.

FWIW I think the supply energy balance to get to your EV prediction is 20 years is a much more interesting conversation, but there are enough threads on that. I just can't let you give short shrift to the poorer parts of the world.

[DChemTech]

Do you honestly believe this time frame? Or was there a little hyperbole in your post?

It might not be exactly 20 years, but that's the sort of time frame we're looking at, yes. People are moving to hybrids and EV now. In 20 years, no one will be buying a pure ICE, many won't even be buying hybrid. Many will be buying pure EV as they realise that they don't need the range after all. In some jurisdictions, new ICE will be banned within 20 years. The UK is currently proposing banning new pure-ICE from 2030. Hydrogen is coming back in to focus as people realise that "clean" transport will be the only allowed system in the near future. Hydrogen is best used in a fuel cell, not burned in an ICE.

Look at the current pandemic - many people have moved to working from home and many will remain doing so afterwards as companies realise how much cheaper it is to have employees own their own offices rather than own/rent big buildings to put them all in. Those people won't be commuting, car use patterns are and will continue to change.

To think the norm of 2019 will be the norm in 2039 is naive IMHO.

I think your timeframe is wildly unrealistic, but then again that depends on who one counts as 'people'. I'm often in eastern europe (and I expect this is also true in non-wealthy countries throughout) and the thought of widescale movement to EV in 20 years is optimistic.

I'd agree with you perhaps if your estimate was the G6, or the G8, or maybe G8+5 +/- USA, but its not like that in all of europe, let-alone the world.

On one hand, I agree with your assessment of the pandemic - those that can work from home will be given continued incentives to do so because companies see a cost saving now. The other story of the pandemic is the devastation of the (hand)working class for whom remote work isn't a thing.

FWIW I think the supply energy balance to get to your EV prediction is 20 years is a much more interesting conversation, but there are enough threads on that. I just can't let you give short shrift to the poorer parts of the world.

That timeline may be true - but for F1 manufacturers, the important factor is not so much whether ICEs are still in use or even being produced for some markets - it's about active development of high-end ICEs. And that will fade long before ICE usage does.

[Just_a_fan]

I think your timeframe is wildly unrealistic, but then again that depends on who one counts as 'people'. I'm often in eastern europe (and I expect this is also true in non-wealthy countries throughout) and the thought of widescale movement to EV in 20 years is optimistic.

I'd agree with you perhaps if your estimate was the G6, or the G8, or maybe G8+5 +/- USA, but its not like that in all of europe, let-alone the world.

On one hand, I agree with your assessment of the pandemic - those that can work from home will be given continued incentives to do so because companies see a cost saving now. The other story of the pandemic is the devastation of the (hand)working class for whom remote work isn't a thing.

FWIW I think the supply energy balance to get to your EV prediction is 20 years is a much more interesting conversation, but there are enough threads on that. I just can't let you give short shrift to the poorer parts of the world.

Good points about the less wealthy countries, but the additional point about them is that they're not likely to be buying and running super-modern ICE either because they're difficult to maintain in less developed locations. Old fashioned ICE will continue there, for sure, but they're not the future of car development, are they? Developed countries are going to be moving away from ICE at an increasing rate over the next few years. At that point, developing countries start to want to emulate those developed countries. I can see the move to simple EVs rather than complicated modern emissions-controlled ICE and then on to EVs. Especially in parts of the world where there is a lot of solar energy potential.Why import petrol from foreign lands when you can generate your own electricity locally?

[RedNEO]

Domenicali is also saying the same as Toto that F1 is shifting its focus away from electric onto sustainable synthetic/bio fuels..

Domenicali “In the logic of diversity, the future of F1 is the hybrid. Because investing only in electric is wrong... F1 will become fascinating for the great manufacturers, I can't say more. F1 can be a great platform to reaffirm diversity even for those who have invested so much in the electric. F1 offers the possibility of developing other technologies and other propulsions with attention to sustainability ”.

https://v6dsseewh55yamhdvpyc6idqzq-adwh ... i/4928933/

This is the perfect opportunity for F1 to show you can have a high revving screaming engine that’s run on sustainable fuels with virtually non existent carbon footprint that’s much cleaner to produce than batteries.

[RedNEO]

Domenicali is also saying the same as Toto that F1 is shifting its focus away from electric onto sustainable synthetic/bio fuels..

Domenicali “In the logic of diversity, the future of F1 is the hybrid. Because investing only in electric is wrong... F1 will become fascinating for the great manufacturers, I can't say more. F1 can be a great platform to reaffirm diversity even for those who have invested so much in the electric. F1 offers the possibility of developing other technologies and other propulsions with attention to sustainability ”.

https://v6dsseewh55yamhdvpyc6idqzq-adwh ... i/4928933/

This is the perfect opportunity for F1 to show you can have a high revving screaming engine that’s run on sustainable fuels with a virtually non existent carbon footprint unlike the production of batteries

[Just_a_fan]

Domenicali is also saying the same as Toto that F1 is shifting its focus away from electric onto sustainable synthetic/bio fuels..

Domenicali “In the logic of diversity, the future of F1 is the hybrid. Because investing only in electric is wrong... F1 will become fascinating for the great manufacturers, I can't say more. F1 can be a great platform to reaffirm diversity even for those who have invested so much in the electric. F1 offers the possibility of developing other technologies and other propulsions with attention to sustainability ”.

https://v6dsseewh55yamhdvpyc6idqzq-adwh ... i/4928933/

This is the perfect opportunity for F1 to show you can have a high revving screaming engine that’s run on sustainable fuels with virtually non existent carbon footprint that’s much cleaner to produce than batteries.

F1 can't go fully electric because the FIA sold the rights to that route to Formula E. F1 is now trying to find a route that doesn't include excessive use of fossil fuels.

[Big Tea]

Domenicali is also saying the same as Toto that F1 is shifting its focus away from electric onto sustainable synthetic/bio fuels..

Domenicali “In the logic of diversity, the future of F1 is the hybrid. Because investing only in electric is wrong... F1 will become fascinating for the great manufacturers, I can't say more. F1 can be a great platform to reaffirm diversity even for those who have invested so much in the electric. F1 offers the possibility of developing other technologies and other propulsions with attention to sustainability ”.

https://v6dsseewh55yamhdvpyc6idqzq-adwh ... i/4928933/

This is the perfect opportunity for F1 to show you can have a high revving screaming engine that’s run on sustainable fuels with virtually non existent carbon footprint that’s much cleaner to produce than batteries.

F1 can't go fully electric because the FIA sold the rights to that route to Formula E. F1 is now trying to find a route that doesn't include excessive use of fossil fuels.

FE has a stated value of 870 million, and some claim it is in decline (not commenting on that) but that is not a huge amount IF the opportunity is there to buy it out, along with the rights.

[DChemTech]

Domenicali is also saying the same as Toto that F1 is shifting its focus away from electric onto sustainable synthetic/bio fuels..

Domenicali “In the logic of diversity, the future of F1 is the hybrid. Because investing only in electric is wrong... F1 will become fascinating for the great manufacturers, I can't say more. F1 can be a great platform to reaffirm diversity even for those who have invested so much in the electric. F1 offers the possibility of developing other technologies and other propulsions with attention to sustainability ”.

https://v6dsseewh55yamhdvpyc6idqzq-adwh ... i/4928933/

This is the perfect opportunity for F1 to show you can have a high revving screaming engine that’s run on sustainable fuels with a virtually non existent carbon footprint unlike the production of batteries

It's all just talk to try and defend a botched route. As JAF indicates, the door to full electric is closed essentially, so they have to find an alternative and try to hype that. Doesn't mean it's actually a good alternative. Biofuels and Synfuels are just not that attractive for customer car applications. By far most commuting can be done with electric vehicles viably, and as battery tech develops, that range just extends. ICEs may have a longer life in medium/long-range transport, especially heavy transport, but there the link to F1 development is less direct, and with fuel cells, there are upcoming alternatives.

And sure, batteries take energy to produce, but battery tech improves (reducing energy input in production) ánd the used energy becomes ever more green. Also, biofuel takes quite some energy to produce, so a similar argument is applicable there. And what's more, there's only so much biomass to go around - way insufficient to fulfill the entire transportation market. Biofuels may have their niche-applications in areas where energy density is crucial (aviation), but aside from that, there are better alternatives. When it comes to SynFuel, there seems to be little incentive (aside from being able to use current infrastructure) to go to higher hydrocarbons which require a lot of C-C bonds to be made, and additional process steps generally go at the cost of efficiency of the storage cycle. So why bother? Use green energy to produce hydrogen, and use that directly - you can put it in a fuel cell, and storage is not really an issue in fields of decently predictable demand (e.g. transport). In fields where demand is more variable so medium/long-term storage is desired, or where a higher energy density is required, add one CO2 to create methanol or formic. Liquid, so easy to store, and again fuel-cell ready (with all due benefits in toxic/particulate emissions, too).

If you want to go for a series that's future tech relevant, either get a deal with FE or go for fuel cell tech. If you want noisy ICEs, fine. But then accept that it's going to be an entertainment sport, and don't pretend it's about tech development.

[NL_Fer]

Ineos a chemical company just became a major partner in the Mercedes AMG F1 team.

Now I understand what Toto is talking about. Without an ICE, chem companies are out.

[hollus]

Oh, no. Climate change again. It’s real. No it’s not. But it is! No, it’s not. Man made. Not man made. Not not man made. Questionable. Not so.
And, amazingly, these days, one gets the feeling that the discussion is really about politics.
It’s all poofed away from the thread.
We’ve been to this rodeo before.

More F1 and less politics, gentlemen.