Will Covid 19 impact 2022 season?

[Big Tea]

Like @Big Tea I don’t think a vaccine is a sliver bullet. I don’t think it’s known whether a vaccinated person is infectious or not. Nor are the vaccines 100% effective, if 20 drivers are vaccinated some (a couple maybe) may not gain immunity. My understanding is vaccinations can be effective on a population but can’t be guaranteed for any particular individual.

I would think that if they do use vaccination, seems likely they will, they will need to do it soon to allow for recovery from adverse reactions and development of immunity which takes weeks. I think they will also need to continue with their 2020 protocols AND persuade destination health authorities that they’re measures will not import a risk of infection. Given how many teams are based in the U.K. which is very high risk I don’t think that’s a given.

It is not just the person being infectious. I could be vaccinated and your mate could be, but if have handled a computer mouse someone has 'contaminated', pick up a book, walk into your place, give it to your mate, who goes to your house and hands it to you, Zap. you probably have it.

There are so many things passing back and fore when the circus turns up it would be very hard to draw a line and say 'clear' and 'dirty'

A crate of bottles from hospitality returned or recycled locally for instance.

[Just_a_fan]

I can see the virus causing some issues unless F1 gets all of the teams vaccinated over the winter. If not, we could see a driver missing a race or two. Whether it will cause a race to be DNS? Tricky question. I could see Australia being cancelled again if they have a flair up.

It's going to be a long season at 22-23 races so anyone missing a race will be less disadvantaged than this year.

I think there will be more problems than just getting the drivers vaccinated.
Even if all the drivers and every team member gets vaccinated they can still carry the virus from one place to another.
So even if everyone involved right down to 'menials' there will be risk involved unless they are kept in a bubble as this (last) year.

It would need to include transport and accommodation, plus what ever is brought into the track locally (well, those who brought it going out) plus things like passing through airports etc.

Having all the early rounds in Europe and road transport only could help, but I don't know about Australia unless F1 have their own dedicated planes and land/unload at say a military airport (wait for them, expensive) and keep the bubble system?

Sure, there's always the risk of cross contamination - where someone with it leaves it on an object which is then picked up by others. That risk exists for all germs, of course, which is why you get outbreaks of food poisoning when food preparation hygiene (dirty hands etc.) is poor.

But the person that has been vaccinated is not the risk there, it's the person who hasn't been vaccinated and is asymptomatic. Test everyone involved with the event and ensure the "key players" are vaccinated and keep everyone that tests negative in the bubble. That's about all you can do, really. It worked pretty well last season.

[notsofast]

Australia may want to limit international travel. China has already canceled some sporting events that were scheduled for early 2021. My guess is that the first races will be Bahrain and Spain, and perhaps whichever European circuit wants to fill the TBC slot. The next one at risk after that will be Canada, and then we're good until October.

[hollus]

Bahrain-Bahrain-Barcelona-Barcelona to start the season?
Those are the usual testing venues!

[PlatinumZealot]

The vaccines should allow the herd immunity that so many of you were hoping on last year to kick in faster and in a safer way of course.

I can see AUS happening, but only with internationals that are willing to quarantine and have repeat tests at airport and hotel.

[Big Tea]

Bahrain-Bahrain-Barcelona-Barcelona to start the season?
Those are the usual testing venues!

I think Barcelona would easily be doable, but Bahrain would need flights, so would need some sort of special staging area. If test-race-race was included it could easily be done, but would everyone involved be happy with would amount to a month isolated? Then again, In UK it looks like that is a strong probability anyway.

[Jolle]

With vaccines round the corner, maybe starting in Europe, going from bubble to bubble like last season and then, if it's safe enough to gather in groups again, Australia, CotA and Brazil?

[JordanMugen]

It seems certain there will be hotspots and border closures (or at least 14 day quarantine rules) that will require some of the 23 races to be cancelled or rescheduled. A smooth season seems most implausible.

Races in Europe and Middle East should proceed, but all the other races (bolded) should be considered provisional IMO.

Let's look at the calendar:

21 March – Australia (Melbourne)
28 March – Bahrain (Sakhir)
11 April – China (Shanghai)
25 April – TBC (TBC)
9 May – Spain (Barcelona)*
23 May – Monaco (Monaco)
6 June – Azerbaijan (Baku)
13 June – Canada (Montreal)
27 June – France (Le Castellet)
4 July – Austria (Spielberg)
18 July – United Kingdom (Silverstone)
1 August – Hungary (Budapest)
29 August – Belgium (Spa)
5 September – Netherlands (Zandvoort)
12 September – Italy (Monza)
26 September – Russia (Sochi)
3 October – Singapore (Singapore)
10 October – Japan (Suzuka)
24 October – USA (Austin)
31 October – Mexico (Mexico City)
14 November – Brazil (Sao Paulo)*
28 November – Saudi Arabia (Jeddah)
5 December – Abu Dhabi (Abu Dhabi)

[JordanMugen]

I can see AUS happening, but only with internationals that are willing to quarantine and have repeat tests at airport and hotel.

Will teams and drivers be keen to undertake the non-negotiable Australian 14 day quarantine procedure?

Likewise the potential for continued local hotspots may prevent the possibility of having crowds, which makes running a street race uneconomic. Phillip Island Race Circuit does not hold Grade 1 status, however it would be a lot of fun to grant a dispensation and race F1 there.

[henry]

The vaccines should allow the herd immunity that so many of you were hoping on last year to kick in faster and in a safer way of course.

I can see AUS happening, but only with internationals that are willing to quarantine and have repeat tests at airport and hotel.

With the new, more highly infectious strains in circulation, herd immunity needs 70%+ of people to have been infected, either naturally or by vaccination. And that doesn’t mean there won’t be further infections it just means that new outbreaks will die out rather than growing exponentially.
So I don’t think we’re going to see national level herd immunity any time soon, if at all.

Perhaps F1 can arrange a self contained herd with everyone involved in an event vaccinated 2 or 3 months before it takes place and tested for antibodies before they’re allowed to mingle. They’d still need to be isolated from the community at large since it’s not clear if vaccination prevents onward transmission.

[El Scorchio]

Well I think no fans at several races is a given, sadly.
However, I think F1 will probably have access to- or make a good case to have access to to- stocks of vaccine to at least protect the drivers, teams and certain other connected people in order to keep the season going as close to plan as possible. It's clear that in these dark times the ability to watch live sport is a positive for millions and millions of people worldwide to offer some nice things to look forward to so I hope it can go ahead.

In line with the mods requests- I'm not making any judgement or trying to open a conversations on morally and ethically whether the sport should have 'early' access to vaccines ahead of other people, but I could see logic in that happening. Especially with the people involved potentially travelling all over the globe.

[Wouter]

https://www.as-web.jp/f1/659296?all

Translated with GT.

Inoculation of the new coronavirus has started in the United Kingdom, but in December, the infection has spread again in the southeastern part such as London in the United Kingdom. Looking at the world, the new corona is not yet converging. What do you expect for F1 in 2021?

Yamamoto Managing Director Honda : This is just my personal impression at the moment, but I think that the 2021 season will move in the same way as in 2020, forming a social bubble in the F1 paddock. . I will be supervising the races from England from 2020 [he will stay/live in England and will not go to Japan in between].

　Also, I would like to hear this as a personal opinion, but I hope that the FIA ​​does not require vaccination.
Some doctors I know say, "One cannot develop a vaccine so quickly, so I should think about the risks."

[nzjrs]

There is an online calculator that estimates ones date of vaccination in the UK based on ones age, risk factors and the current vaccination rate. https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk

My estimated date of vaccination in the UK is between January and August, 2022

I'll leave it up to others to decide if other countries will have sufficiently different vaccination rates for the vaccine to make a different in the number of spectators attending the races.

[Tommy Cookers]

Like @Big Tea I don’t think a vaccine is a sliver bullet. I don’t think it’s known whether a vaccinated person is infectious or not. Nor are the vaccines 100% effective, if 20 drivers are vaccinated some (a couple maybe) may not gain immunity. My understanding is vaccinations can be effective on a population but can’t be guaranteed for any particular individual.
.....

agreed both the 'American' vaccines seem proven (by 'robust' tests) to reduce deaths by 90+% (actual body counts)
but the 'UK-Oxford' vaccine (more conservative design - and tests?) just introduced seems unproven at reducing deaths
eg for the conveniently changed-dosage tests the subject group wasn't age-representative
the so-called 'full protection' of some widely-used vaccines can be as low as 50%
(ie I wouldn't rely on the 'Oxford' to save me - so wouldn't spectate at a race in 2021 even if it was allowed)

please if you can tell me/show me how I'm wrong

btw remember there was a GP season in 1939 and in 1940

[DChemTech]

it’s not clear if vaccination prevents onward transmission.

I would expect so, though. After all, if the vaccine means you become less ill (or asymptomatic), that does imply less virus is being produced inside your body (if massive loads of virus particles were to be produced, your body would get upset by that). And virus particles that are being produced will be spread less vigorously if you're not coughing and sneezing. So even if there is some virus production, and some potential to spread it still, I would expect it to be significantly reduced vs. a symptomatic carrier.

edit: OK I just read that one potential drawback of the current technology is that it provides systemic immunity (in the body), but possibly leave certain areas (such as nasal mucosal passages) relatively unguarded. Hence, one may have no bodily symptoms, but the virus could still multiply in those passages, and be emitted upon sneezing/coughing. Of course it then matters if the frequency of coughing/sneezing is affected by the overall less severe infection, but there is a risk of transmission upon sneezing/coughing still.