Will Covid 19 impact 2022 season?

[Big Tea]

Like @Big Tea I don’t think a vaccine is a sliver bullet. I don’t think it’s known whether a vaccinated person is infectious or not. Nor are the vaccines 100% effective, if 20 drivers are vaccinated some (a couple maybe) may not gain immunity. My understanding is vaccinations can be effective on a population but can’t be guaranteed for any particular individual.
.....

agreed both the 'American' vaccines seem proven (by 'robust' methods ?) to reduce deaths by 90+% (actual body counts)
but the 'UK-Oxford' vaccine (more conservative design and tests) just introduced seems unproven at reducing deaths
eg for the conveniently changed-dosage tests the subject group wasn't age-representative
(ie I wouldn't rely on it to save me - so wouldn't attend any races in 2021 even if normal attendance was allowed)

please if you can tell me/show me how I'm wrong

btw remember there was a GP season in 1939 and in 1940

The oxford relevant information seems to be page 6, but plenty to wade through

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... 14a_v4.pdf

My clipping and not very accurate

Preliminary findings showed that neutralising antibodies were induced at day 14 and 28 after
the first vaccination and titres increased after a second dose. Specific T cell responses were
also induced after a single immunisation and were maintained after the second dose. Final
data showed that IgG spike antibody responses and neutralising antibody 28 days after the
boost dose were similar across the three age cohorts (18–55 years, 56–69 years, and ≥70
years). More than 99% (208/209) of the participants had neutralising antibody responses
two weeks after the booster dose. Peak T-cell responses were seen 14 days after the first
dose and were broadly equivalent in the three age groups (Ramasamy et al, 2020). In analysis
of over 11,000 patients in the phase 3 study, overall vaccine efficacy against symptomatic
disease was 70·4% (95·8% CI 54·8–80·6). (Voysey et al, 2020). There were ten cases
hospitalised for COVID-19, of which two were severe, all in the control group, suggesting
very high protection against severe disease. High protection against hospitalisation was seen
from 21 days after dose 1 until two weeks after the second dose, suggesting that a single
dose will provide high short term protection against severe disease. (Voysey et al, 2020). An
exploratory analysis of participants who had received one standard dose of the vaccine
suggested that efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19 was 73.00% (95% CI: 48.79-85.76%).

[Jolle]

Like @Big Tea I don’t think a vaccine is a sliver bullet. I don’t think it’s known whether a vaccinated person is infectious or not. Nor are the vaccines 100% effective, if 20 drivers are vaccinated some (a couple maybe) may not gain immunity. My understanding is vaccinations can be effective on a population but can’t be guaranteed for any particular individual.
.....

btw remember there was a GP season in 1939 and in 1940

in 1939 there were a couple of Grand Prix (mostly to boost the Nazi engineering with Mercedes and Auto Union nationalistic message) before they invaded Poland and started WW2.

The 1940 Grand Prix almost all took place in South America as I recall. One of the reasons they came over to Europe after the war, all warmed up.

but what has this got to do with a pandemic and a vaccine?

[Sieper]

The vaccines are a totally new way of preventing getting a RNA (virus) based sickness. It actually contains part of the RNA code that produces the Spikes that are used by the real diseases RNA to enter your cells. Your own immune systeem will see the spikes, and will learn how to deal with them, EXACTLY as would happen if you contract COVID-19, but without getting sick as the rest of the RNA strand is not copied into the vaccine. After a second round off teaching your immune system what the spikes look like your immune system will be capable of recognizing and attacking spike RNA with very high efficiency. Almost 100%. I actually do think it really is a silver bullet. Our DNA research is now advanced far enough to be able to do this. It is like the change from analog to digital electronics (if I would have to make a comparison).

[Just_a_fan]

Like @Big Tea I don’t think a vaccine is a sliver bullet. I don’t think it’s known whether a vaccinated person is infectious or not. Nor are the vaccines 100% effective, if 20 drivers are vaccinated some (a couple maybe) may not gain immunity. My understanding is vaccinations can be effective on a population but can’t be guaranteed for any particular individual.
.....

agreed both the 'American' vaccines seem proven (by 'robust' tests) to reduce deaths by 90+% (actual body counts)
but the 'UK-Oxford' vaccine (more conservative design - and tests?) just introduced seems unproven at reducing deaths
eg for the conveniently changed-dosage tests the subject group wasn't age-representative
the so-called 'full protection' of some widely-used vaccines can be as low as 50%
(ie I wouldn't rely on the 'Oxford' to save me - so wouldn't spectate at a race in 2021 even if it was allowed)

please if you can tell me/show me how I'm wrong

btw remember there was a GP season in 1939 and in 1940

The question is whether a given individual has sufficient antibodies after vaccination. If you have then you're protected. That's basically how vaccines work - they prime the body so that as soon as a nasty gets in to the body, it's recognised and killed before it gets a chance to replicate in any meaningful way. Bear in mind that this also prevents the passing of infection to others because there's never enough of the nasty to be shared.

Vaccine efficacy is about how many people from a vaccinated group produce adequate antibodies in response to the vaccine.

[Big Tea]

But- J-a-F and Sieper, importantly it does not stop you spreading it. You can carry it on your body as you would carry wet paint.

Touching wet paint, you get paint on you, you have gloves and an overall on so no effect, but you touch someone else that is not in work cloths and they have paint on them

[Big Tea]

Oz looks like it is off apparently

[Sieper]

But- J-a-F and Sieper, importantly it does not stop you spreading it. You can carry it on your body as you would carry wet paint.

Touching wet paint, you get paint on you, you have gloves and an overall on so no effect, but you touch someone else that is not in work cloths and they have paint on them

That is true. But you can’t spread wet paint by couching it up anymore.

How serious surface carry over infection rate is we do not really know. I personally have been carefull. Not touching anything with my hands and washing them first thing after reentering my house (trying not to touch my face in the meantime). So far I have been virus free.

[Tommy Cookers]

The vaccines are a totally new way of preventing getting a RNA (virus) based sickness....

afaik and fwiw from my UK view .....

the 'American' vaccines (Pfizer/BeoNtech and Moderna) are RNA type
the 'UK' vaccine (AstraZeneca/Oxford University) isn't

[Just_a_fan]

But- J-a-F and Sieper, importantly it does not stop you spreading it. You can carry it on your body as you would carry wet paint.

Touching wet paint, you get paint on you, you have gloves and an overall on so no effect, but you touch someone else that is not in work cloths and they have paint on them

Of course, there is that issue but that's the same with many diseases. Smallpox could be caught by touching infected items as well as the usual inhalation of droplets from an infected person. And guess what? Smallpox has been eradicated by vaccination.

The answer at this stage, as I said, is vaccination and careful cleanliness. Hand washing is a very effective way of preventing transmission because it kills the virus before it can be transferred to the mouth/nose/eyes by face touching. Do something, wash your hands before doing something else. That reduces the chances of taking the virus from the first activity to the second activity. Our hands are our biggest transmission risk and the easiest to sanitise. An example - I have a mask and hand sanitiser in my car. I meet a client whilst wearing my mask, then I sanitise my hands before going on to the next appointment. That reduces the chances of me breathing it in and also of me carrying it on my hands form place to place.

But ultimately, it will require everyone to be vaccinated. If everyone is vaccinated then there is no problem.

[Big Tea]

But- J-a-F and Sieper, importantly it does not stop you spreading it. You can carry it on your body as you would carry wet paint.

Touching wet paint, you get paint on you, you have gloves and an overall on so no effect, but you touch someone else that is not in work cloths and they have paint on them

Of course, there is that issue but that's the same with many diseases. Smallpox could be caught by touching infected items as well as the usual inhalation of droplets from an infected person. And guess what? Smallpox has been eradicated by vaccination.

The answer at this stage, as I said, is vaccination and careful cleanliness. Hand washing is a very effective way of preventing transmission because it kills the virus before it can be transferred to the mouth/nose/eyes by face touching. Do something, wash your hands before doing something else. That reduces the chances of taking the virus from the first activity to the second activity. Our hands are our biggest transmission risk and the easiest to sanitise. An example - I have a mask and hand sanitiser in my car. I meet a client whilst wearing my mask, then I sanitise my hands before going on to the next appointment. That reduces the chances of me breathing it in and also of me carrying it on my hands form place to place.

But ultimately, it will require everyone to be vaccinated. If everyone is vaccinated then there is no problem.

I agree with this (as smalpox) but it will probably be 3 years before that point. Even then some studies show upto 40% anti vaxers

[Just_a_fan]

The vaccines are a totally new way of preventing getting a RNA (virus) based sickness....

afaik and fwiw from my UK view .....

the 'American' vaccines (Pfizer/BeoNtech and Moderna) are RNA type
the 'UK' vaccine (AstraZeneca/Oxford University) isn't

Indeed. The Oxford virus is a modified Chimpanzee adenovirus - one that cause Chimp common cold.

It's genetically altered so that it isn't a risk to humans. But the main thing about it is that it has been modified so that it produces the "spikes" that COVID uses to latch on to human cells. These "spikes" then cause the human immune system to react and produce the necessary antibody response.

[Just_a_fan]

But- J-a-F and Sieper, importantly it does not stop you spreading it. You can carry it on your body as you would carry wet paint.

Touching wet paint, you get paint on you, you have gloves and an overall on so no effect, but you touch someone else that is not in work cloths and they have paint on them

Of course, there is that issue but that's the same with many diseases. Smallpox could be caught by touching infected items as well as the usual inhalation of droplets from an infected person. And guess what? Smallpox has been eradicated by vaccination.

The answer at this stage, as I said, is vaccination and careful cleanliness. Hand washing is a very effective way of preventing transmission because it kills the virus before it can be transferred to the mouth/nose/eyes by face touching. Do something, wash your hands before doing something else. That reduces the chances of taking the virus from the first activity to the second activity. Our hands are our biggest transmission risk and the easiest to sanitise. An example - I have a mask and hand sanitiser in my car. I meet a client whilst wearing my mask, then I sanitise my hands before going on to the next appointment. That reduces the chances of me breathing it in and also of me carrying it on my hands form place to place.

But ultimately, it will require everyone to be vaccinated. If everyone is vaccinated then there is no problem.

I agree with this (as smalpox) but it will probably be 3 years before that point. Even then some studies show upto 40% anti vaxers

Only in some countries. And they can be dealt with by requiring proof of vaccination before attending events. If you choose not to be vaccinated then we choose not to let you attend our event. The same as any other event with terms and conditions attached to attendance.

Ultimately, those who choose not to get vaccinated are putting themselves at risk - their choice. Everyone else that is vaccinated will be fine. The few who want to be vaccinated but can't for various reasons are the ones that will end up suffering without having any choice. I never had the smallpox vaccine because I suffered from eczema as a child (and I still get the occasional bit even now decades later). Eczema carried a very high risk of nasty complications from the smallpox vaccine so suffers weren't allowed to have it. Indeed, you're not supposed to go near anyone who has had the smallpox vaccine for 30 days after they've had the vaccine such is the risk. Luckily, everyone else did have the vaccine and smallpox is gone so I can sleep soundly at night (I'll try not to think about a smallpox bio-weapon. Can't do anything about that).

[Manoah2u]

Several news outlets claim that the 'new' South-African Corona mutation is immune against the (current) vaccin, so all this is far, far from over.

[Jolle]

With the new stricter lockdown in England, I guess testing will be postponed as well. Bonding carbon doesn’t work well over zoom...

[Just_a_fan]

With the new stricter lockdown in England, I guess testing will be postponed as well. Bonding carbon doesn’t work well over zoom...

One can go to work where it is not possible to do the work from home. So the teams can still go in to the factories. Management level guys might be working from home and meeting via Zoom etc., which will probably make for a nicer time for the guys in the factory!