Will Covid 19 impact 2022 season?

[nzjrs]

I think the big problem is the asymptomatic cases. People who have it and feel the effects don't go out and about because they know they've got it and feel bad - just like you do with other illnesses. Those that have it and don't have any symptoms go out and about and potentially spread it.

Sometimes it is about personal responsibility and sometimes it is about clear rules and regulations in place to protect people from their own worst instincts.

I'd suggest the countries that have done better have different policies in place for the latter because as far as I can tell most humans around the world are very similar with respect to the former.

I remember early last year in England when many other counties had compulsory masks and England had vague guidelines not strongly recommending them. Then England did a U-turn in the course of 2 days and suddenly everyone managed to wear masks which they obviously already had purchased and were just not wearing for whatever reason (lack of personal responsibility? Shame?). They seemed to require bojo to give them gave them a little persuasion or permission or guidance? To me that's an interesting example of human behaviour.

[Big Tea]

I think the big problem is the asymptomatic cases. People who have it and feel the effects don't go out and about because they know they've got it and feel bad - just like you do with other illnesses. Those that have it and don't have any symptoms go out and about and potentially spread it.

Although there is a suggestion that asymptomatic people may not be infectious. Unfortunately no one knows either way because no one is doing the necessary correct tests to find out.

Earlier estimates that 80% of infections are asymptomatic were too high and have since been revised down to between 17% and 20% of people with infections.12 Studies estimating this proportion are limited by heterogeneity in case definitions, incomplete symptom assessment, and inadequate retrospective and prospective follow-up of symptoms, however. Around 49% of people initially defined as asymptomatic go on to develop symptoms.

It’s also unclear to what extent people with no symptoms transmit SARS-CoV-2. The only test for live virus is viral culture. PCR and lateral flow tests do not distinguish live virus. No test of infection or infectiousness is currently available for routine use. As things stand, a person who tests positive with any kind of test may or may not have an active infection with live virus, and may or may not be infectious.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4851

And that you can spread for between 4-7 days before getting symptoms your self.

[hollus]

...asymptomatic people may not be infectious...
...limited by heterogeneity in case definitions, incomplete symptom assessment, and inadequate retrospective and prospective follow-up...
...tests do not distinguish live virus...
...a person who tests positive with any kind of test may or may not have an active infection with live virus, and may or may not be infectious...

That is simply biology science. People expect things to be black and white, yes or no, no ambiguity.
But in biology, everything, almost by definition, depends on how you define it, on hoy measure it, partly on how you interpret the results, and everything, everything, is probabilistic in nature.
But the population at large has a very hard time understanding this and an even harder time accepting it.
Biology is messy. Not only in how we interact with it, but by itself. Everything works in probabilities in biology.

[adrianjordan]

At the end of October Imperial College London produced a report which includes fatality rate by age. It confirms that Infection Fatality Rate increases with age roughly doubling every 8 years. So population demographics play a big part in a nations overall IFR and many of the poorer nations have a younger population than the richer. A table on page 11 gives predicted ranges for overall IFR by countries wealth which quantifies this.

Like @Tommy Cookers I’m naturally interested in my personal risk level. The table on page 11 gives predicted ranges for IFR by age range. Based on information elsewhere on risk factors my guess would be that a slim female with no history of medical issues could use the lower bound whilst an obese male with diabetes heart and lung issues the upper. In my case given the IFR and the prevalence of the disease in my area I locked myself down long before the government thought it a good idea.

I’d be comfortable to lead a normal existence if the IFR were somewhere near that of Flu. That rate is 0.04% and the High Income Country Covid rate is a little over 1%. So a combination of vaccination and improved healthcare treatments needs to drop IFR by a factor of 20+. We’re still some way off that. I guess that is why the U.K. Chief Medical Officer, Chris Whitty, is warning that we might still be facing lockdown style restrictions next winter.

Of course another way of reducing risk would be to get close to zero prevalence such as in Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan etc. I don’t see the political will to do that here, or in most of the countries that hold F1 races.

The Imperial report is here https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imper ... ort-34.pdf

Thanks. A lot of work gone into that. It must be difficult to factor in that so many of the early deaths were from the top end of the range, but it was well into the initial 'wave' before they found some of the simple aids such as the steroids which make such a big difference to survivability. Also, not nice to consider, but how many of the very top of the range actually had the mental and physical drive to recover? I have seen a couple of old people throw the towel in. No possible way to tabulate it though. There is also the additional effect of smoking and Covid. It will be a long time before we make a lot of sense from some of it

Not forgetting that the older someone was and the more co-morbidities they had, the more likely they would just be made comfortable and not receive any real treatment.

Hell I was having to leave people at home to die during the first wave (and we're getting very, very close to that again this time around) because the hospital would not accept them. Not Covid positive patients, but possible Covid patients - so normal pneumonia, flu, even a UTI that caused a fever and delirium.

I haven't read that study because I'm just on a break from finishing my vaccinator e-training, but I would hope they at least comment on that as it would be a massive source of bias.

[Wouter]

Soon all drivers will have to return to the factories in England for meetings and simulator work and other things. How is that going? Does everyone there first have to be quarantined for 10 days? How are the rules there at the moment and are they allowed to enter the country at all?

[Jolle]

Soon all drivers will have to return to the factories in England for meetings and simulator work and other things. How is that going? Does everyone there first have to be quarantined for 10 days? How are the rules there at the moment and are they allowed to enter the country at all?

I guess they just don’t. Drivers don’t have to be in die seat fittings this year, sim drivers have probably tested out the new floors since august and meetings can be online.
It’s one of the things Hamilton spoke about in his end of season review, how he missed being at the factory and contact with the team.

[hollus]

Just a gentle reminder:

Remember the rules on a similar thread last year? Still apply here.
Stay away from politics, from vaxxers or antivaxxers, from medical advice, etc. This is an F1 site, if something is dividing society in two, don't bring the division here. Thank you.

Obviously, F1 has to operate on within the world situation so that is OK.

Please, refrain from telling other people what they must do or must nor do.

...if something is dividing society in two, don't bring the division here. Thank you.

[Just_a_fan]

Soon all drivers will have to return to the factories in England for meetings and simulator work and other things. How is that going? Does everyone there first have to be quarantined for 10 days? How are the rules there at the moment and are they allowed to enter the country at all?

Going to work is allowed if it can't be done at home, so the factories are open and drivers can go to them for things like seat fitting, stimulator work. A meeting can be done remotely and probably would be even if they're all in the building itself I.e. each sat in their own office using Teams / Zoom / whatever.

As for drivers coming to the UK (well, England as that's where the teams are and England has slightly different rules to Scotland etc.), I'm sure arriving with a negative test result and then having tests every day/few days would be sufficient to allow entry.

[Wouter]

Soon all drivers will have to return to the factories in England for meetings and simulator work and other things. How is that going? Does everyone there first have to be quarantined for 10 days? How are the rules there at the moment and are they allowed to enter the country at all?

Going to work is allowed if it can't be done at home, so the factories are open and drivers can go to them for things like seat fitting, stimulator work. A meeting can be done remotely and probably would be even if they're all in the building itself I.e. each sat in their own office using Teams / Zoom / whatever.

As for drivers coming to the UK (well, England as that's where the teams are and England has slightly different rules to Scotland etc.), I'm sure arriving with a negative test result and then having tests every day/few days would be sufficient to allow entry.

No quarantine for the drivers from other countries?

[Just_a_fan]

No quarantine for the drivers from other countries?

Not sure, but I'd think that evidence of being virus free and ongoing testing to ensure continuous virus free status would be looked favourably. After all, the reason the rest of us have to quarantine is because we don't have access to that level of testing.

[Wouter]

[hUirEYExbN]

Official updates on the calendar: https://www.fia.com/news/formula-one-up ... 1-calendar

[MtthsMlw]

So it begins

[Just_a_fan]

Fingers crossed that the blank entry is filled with something like Mugello. Hopefully not a another bland "Circuit in a box" circuit.

[Baulz]

Fingers crossed that the blank entry is filled with something like Mugello. Hopefully not a another bland "Circuit in a box" circuit.

I would expect it to be a track in Europe with easy access for the teams so Mugello would have a good chance.