Will Covid 19 impact 2022 season?

[adrianjordan]

OAZ seems unable to test their vaccine on old people
and no 'expert' says that vaccinations will prevent all deaths in the vulnerable groups eg 90% is the best I've heard

in-population infection rates have fallen only slowly with the lockdown - and have already stopped falling in many areas
how won't they again and soon rocket up ? (it's not oldies that spread the infection)

How do you get ethical approval to test a vaccine on an age group vastly more at risk of dying and who have been advised to shield?? .....

Pfizer did
their tests had something like 5 vaccinated deaths and 106 unvaccinated deaths
this 'immunity score' suggests about a twentyfold greater chance of survival (than without any vaccination)

nobody is telling the OAZ-vaccinated to shield for another 6 or 12 months ......
but eg TV news (at the whim of self-serving editors and writers) has spouted on about 'hugging your grandchildren'

so how many more people will die ? .....
(not unreasonably thinking that 'full immunity' means that they are immune)

Different ethical boards. US vs UK. In the US money talks louder, in the UK it's harder to get ethical approval.

There will never be full immunity, all the vaccines do is reduce the risk of infection, reduce the risk of any infection becoming serious and reduce the possibility of any infection reaching the contagious stage.

How many more will die?? Depends on your timescale. It's not unreasonable to think that we could see at least another 50% on top of the current totals by the end of 2021 depending on any new variants that emerge.

[Big Tea]

How do you get ethical approval to test a vaccine on an age group vastly more at risk of dying and who have been advised to shield?? .....

Pfizer did
their tests had something like 5 vaccinated deaths and 106 unvaccinated deaths
this 'immunity score' suggests about a twentyfold greater chance of survival (than without any vaccination)

nobody is telling the OAZ-vaccinated to shield for another 6 or 12 months ......
but eg TV news (at the whim of self-serving editors and writers) has spouted on about 'hugging your grandchildren'

so how many more people will die ? .....
(not unreasonably thinking that 'full immunity' means that they are immune)

Different ethical boards. US vs UK. In the US money talks louder, in the UK it's harder to get ethical approval.

There will never be full immunity, all the vaccines do is reduce the risk of infection, reduce the risk of any infection becoming serious and reduce the possibility of any infection reaching the contagious stage.

How many more will die?? Depends on your timescale. It's not unreasonable to think that we could see at least another 50% on top of the current totals by the end of 2021 depending on any new variants that emerge.

I'm happy if it means I don't die from it, or have a greatly reduced risk of it, and of course reduced risk of a severe bout of it. If I am also only a quarter as lightly to get it in any form, I consider this a bonus.

Latest news is that some companies believe it can be dispensed in a nasal spray form, so if this is correct even better.
Take the strain of health service and get it from the local pharmacy if there is a mutation not covered by the jab we had. Things are looking so much better than a year ago

[Big Tea]

Reports in today from Vax program in uk Scotland only, but England and Wales to follow soon

1.4 million Vax mostly older, shows hospitalisations down 94% with AZ Vax and 84 with Pfizer after just the first dose.
This is not trials, it is the actual results from Scotland. The un known now is how long protection lasts, but prob a minimum of 6 months (2x 3months) probably far longer

https://www.ed.ac.uk/usher/eave-ii/key- ... a-suggests


(edited incorrect link)

[nzjrs]

Reports in today from Vax program in uk Scotland only, but England and Wales to follow soon

1.4 million Vax mostly older, shows hospitalisations down 94% with AZ Vax and 84 with Pfizer after just the first dose.
This is not trials, it is the actual results from Scotland. The un known now is how long protection lasts, but prob a minimum of 6 months (2x 3months) probably far longer


https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/6/e039097

Is this the correct link?

[Big Tea]

Reports in today from Vax program in uk Scotland only, but England and Wales to follow soon

1.4 million Vax mostly older, shows hospitalisations down 94% with AZ Vax and 84 with Pfizer after just the first dose.
This is not trials, it is the actual results from Scotland. The un known now is how long protection lasts, but prob a minimum of 6 months (2x 3months) probably far longer


https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/10/6/e039097

Is this the correct link?

No! so sorry its

https://www.ed.ac.uk/usher/eave-ii/key- ... a-suggests

sloppy of me.


the relevent part is

By the fourth week after receiving the initial dose, the Pfizer and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines were shown to reduce the risk of hospitalisation from Covid-19 by up to 85 per cent and 94 per cent, respectively.

Among those aged 80 years and over - one of the highest risk groups - vaccination was associated with an 81 per cent reduction in hospitalisation risk in the fourth week, when the results for both vaccines were combined.
...

First jab
The Pfizer vaccine has been received by some 650,000 people and 490,000 have had the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.

Researchers analysed data for every week during this period – including GP records on vaccination, hospital admissions, death registrations and laboratory test results – and compared the outcomes of those who had received their first jab with those who had not.

[adrianjordan]

Yeah, there seem to be very impressive rates of protection. We have to remember though that the vaccination program has been combined with a lockdown that has seen these age groups shielding again. It will be vital that rates remain low once they start socialising again.

Uptake rates will be the key factor now. I've already had conversations with patients who have told me they won't have it because it has given people they know side effects and they don't want to be ill for a couple of days (This is usually met with a stern but professional rebuke from me).

Looking at today's announcement, we may well be able to have fans in the grandstand at Silverstone this year, which will be amazing!!

[Big Tea]

Yeah, there seem to be very impressive rates of protection. We have to remember though that the vaccination program has been combined with a lockdown that has seen these age groups shielding again. It will be vital that rates remain low once they start socialising again.

Uptake rates will be the key factor now. I've already had conversations with patients who have told me they won't have it because it has given people they know side effects and they don't want to be ill for a couple of days (This is usually met with a stern but professional rebuke from me).

Looking at today's announcement, we may well be able to have fans in the grandstand at Silverstone this year, which will be amazing!!

I would gladly swap a couple of days of sweat and toilet trips for a couple of decades more life. Then again, I'm funny like that, I like it here. My mother in law is saying she does not want it because her neighbour has told her how bad the side effects are, and she has not even had it herself. Why are some idiots making stuff up without even knowing what they are talking about?

I had a tender arm for maybe 2 days, I have had much worse walking into a doorframe.

[Scorpaguy]

1st shot of pfizer... slightly sore arm. 2nd shot had a headache and felt a bit yucky for a day. Nothing major. This set of reactions seem to be the norm for my company.

[adrianjordan]

I had quite severe side effects to the AZ vaccine, temp for 3 days, sore arm for a week.

Still better than having Covid though!!

...
<politics removed>

[Morteza]

[Just_a_fan]

1st shot of pfizer... slightly sore arm. 2nd shot had a headache and felt a bit yucky for a day. Nothing major. This set of reactions seem to be the norm for my company.

These sort of reactions aren't unusual for a whole range of vaccines that we take quite happily in normal times. Go on holiday to somewhere where "interesting" diseases exist and you'll have vaccinations - some places won't even let you in without proof of vaccination. And lots of these vaccines can give a reaction such as you list. Heck, even the seasonal 'flu vaccine can give similar reactions.

[adrianjordan]

https://twitter.com/PhilDuncanF1/status ... 0284753920

I think a full house is probably ambitious as I'm not convinced we'll hit the government targets on time and social distancing might still be there. Unless they test on the way in or something like that.

Let's be honest, any number of fans will be a welcome boost!!

[Big Tea]

1st shot of pfizer... slightly sore arm. 2nd shot had a headache and felt a bit yucky for a day. Nothing major. This set of reactions seem to be the norm for my company.

These sort of reactions aren't unusual for a whole range of vaccines that we take quite happily in normal times. Go on holiday to somewhere where "interesting" diseases exist and you'll have vaccinations - some places won't even let you in without proof of vaccination. And lots of these vaccines can give a reaction such as you list. Heck, even the seasonal 'flu vaccine can give similar reactions.

Getting reactions show it is working, and your bodies immune system is fighting what it thinks is an infection.
The more response the better your immune system is working.

Thats why the second dose is said to be worse. Your system has just been told 'look out for this' then along it comes.

[nzjrs]

An update on UK starting to follow Israel's path (data) - reproducing the effect of Vaccination on hospitalisation rates per age.



Certainly good news for the UK.

[aMessageToCharlie]

Is there any explanation on why they group together people age 0-64 in one single age group?

Why use a 64 year span for one group and a 10 year span for all other groups?

Can somebody explain what the reasoning is?