Will Covid 19 impact 2022 season?

[adrianjordan]

All good news, but what the government does not seem to be stressing, and it is very important, is that for the first two weeks there is almost NO protection. After 20 days it is quite good but full protection is 4 or even 5 weeks after the jab. The figures from Israel, which was the first country to go full scale show a large spike in the first 2 weeks after the roll out then a rapid drop off from there. I don't know if people were not informed, or if they just ignored it and went visiting anyway.

It is on the paperwork you get with the vax, but I never hear it stressed during the briefings, so it would seem to be down to the staff at the clinic. Where I was 'done' I was told, but as there was a lot going on it was easy to miss. I really think we are not paying enough attention to this.

Well since we're still in a full Lockdown they shouldn't really need to worry anyway.

Not that people seem to actually be bothering with lockdown these days...

That's what will be more of a concern, people stop distancing, wearing face masks etc too soon and we see another spike.

That and the Brazilian varient or other possible mutations.

I am always grumbling when we take our exercise walk that we seem to be the only ones bothering with masks.
I know the 'rule' only indoors but we keep our masks around the neck and if we have to pass close to others just rise it up. No one else seems to bother and I find it slightly annoying. The mask is not for my protection, others masks are for my protection and it seems a one way thing. Not cool to be seen waring a mask etc.

We live in a costal town and know many by sight, most of those we pass are defiantly not 'locals', which is the bit that winds me up.

Agreed. I had to get the train into Leeds City centre today for an opticians appointment and the number of, it has to be said mainly younger, people who think the mask is there to support their chin is ridiculous. The lack of enforcement doesn't help.

In my professional experience with patients, those who are genuinely exempt will actually try to wear one, or as an alternative wear a face visor.

Anyway, we're getting dangerously close to politics here lol.

[nzjrs]

All good news, but what the government does not seem to be stressing, and it is very important, is that for the first two weeks there is almost NO protection. After 20 days it is quite good but full protection is 4 or even 5 weeks after the jab. The figures from Israel, which was the first country to go full scale show a large spike in the first 2 weeks after the roll out then a rapid drop off from there. I don't know if people were not informed, or if they just ignored it and went visiting anyway.

I feel what you are saying - it is also quantitatively correct. The un-solvable flip side is that if the messaging is too aligned with - or can be misinterpreted as "even once you are vaccinated you still can't meet people and lockdowns will continue anyway" then there is a very very real danger that people will come away saying "screw it, I'm not getting the vaccine as it anyway wont change anything to me". That is certainly a sentiment I have heard often.

It's a delicate balance and I don't know how to wiggle out of it.

[Big Tea]

All good news, but what the government does not seem to be stressing, and it is very important, is that for the first two weeks there is almost NO protection. After 20 days it is quite good but full protection is 4 or even 5 weeks after the jab. The figures from Israel, which was the first country to go full scale show a large spike in the first 2 weeks after the roll out then a rapid drop off from there. I don't know if people were not informed, or if they just ignored it and went visiting anyway.

I feel what you are saying - it is also quantitatively correct. The un-solvable flip side is that if the messaging is too aligned with - or can be misinterpreted as "even once you are vaccinated you still can't meet people and lockdowns will continue anyway" then there is a very very real danger that people will come away saying "screw it, I'm not getting the vaccine as it anyway wont change anything to me". That is certainly a sentiment I have heard often.

It's a delicate balance and I don't know how to wiggle out of it.

Im UK the vax rollout has been incredible, but it would be really terrific if it could be all done in a shorter time and we could be told then that by X it will be a month after the last vax and this new set of rules will come out. Even if its only things like beer gardens/coffee shops outside or still masks in shops etc, but once there is a target it must be easier.

Not complaining about the way Vaccinations were done, it has been a fantastic effort technically and personally.
Not only the sharp end, if you will pardon the pun, but the organisation behind it and the development etc.
( I took a tin of Heroes to the staff that vaccinated me as an appreciation and hope they know we all apricate the effort. There were plenty of biscuits in evidence so it seems so )

[Morteza]

[Manoah2u]

And so it begins

[Just_a_fan]

( I took a tin of Heroes to the staff that vaccinated me as an appreciation and hope they know we all apricate the effort. There were plenty of biscuits in evidence so it seems so )

Next health crisis: obesity and diabetes cases amongst vaccination staff...

[RedNEO]

[Tommy Cookers]

.... The un-solvable flip side is that if the messaging is too aligned with - or can be misinterpreted as "even once you are vaccinated you still can't meet people and lockdowns will continue anyway" then there is a very very real danger that people will come away saying "screw it, I'm not getting the vaccine as it anyway wont change anything to me". That is certainly a sentiment I have heard often.
It's a delicate balance and I don't know how to wiggle out of it.

how is that misinterpretation ?

anyway ..... this situation will exist for 6 months or more
because of vaccine supply constraints and the need to vaccinate twice etc

and ...... infection rates have stopped reducing in many areas
(poorer areas having lots of essential workers eg making food not those 'working from home')
eg essential worker people who go to shops to buy food because they can't get it delivered
or eg those whose work is shopping to fill the orders of those who have food delivered

the schools resume on Monday
how won't infection rates be increasing on Tuesday or Wednesday ?

[nzjrs]

.... The un-solvable flip side is that if the messaging is too aligned with - or can be misinterpreted as "even once you are vaccinated you still can't meet people and lockdowns will continue anyway" then there is a very very real danger that people will come away saying "screw it, I'm not getting the vaccine as it anyway wont change anything to me". That is certainly a sentiment I have heard often.
It's a delicate balance and I don't know how to wiggle out of it.

how is that misinterpretation ?

anyway ..... this situation will exist for 6 months or more
because of vaccine supply constraints and the need to vaccinate twice etc

and ...... infection rates have stopped reducing in many areas
(poorer areas having lots of essential workers eg making food not those 'working from home')
eg essential worker people who go to shops to buy food because they can't get it delivered
or eg those whose work is shopping to fill the orders of those who have food delivered

the schools resume on Monday
how won't infection rates be increasing on Tuesday or Wednesday ?

As I've said several times - now that vaccination is very well underway, we need to move to a better measure than 'infection rates'. It doesn't capture the age variable well enough - the increased protection (relative to earlier in the pandemic) of the elderly groups now been vaccinated.

(as for the misinterpretation part, that really depends on how long you think people will be happy with the continuation part of lockdown - that is if the distinction between lock-downs for the next 3, 6 or 12 months is meaningful to people whose thinking is that way inclined.

I mean just qualitatively, if the risk to people over 50 has decreased by X times, why haven't measures been reduced by Y. It's a valid question and people who are already fatalistic or nihilistic about this last year no doubt think about often.

I don't think this way, but it is a more defensible argument than things that might have been said earlier in the pandemic underplaying the risk of Covid)

[Morteza]

[Just_a_fan]

As I've said several times - now that vaccination is very well underway, we need to move to a better measure than 'infection rates'.

Exactly. Infection rates are much less important than hospitalisation rates. If everyone catches it but no one needs medical intervention then the infections don't matter.

Having said that, there is a small subset that might have long term issues with reduced lung capacity, but those won't be known about if they don't require medical intervention. Of course, that intervention might not be required for many years after the infection itself, but that can't be second guessed now.

[henry]

.

Having said that, there is a small subset that might have long term issues with reduced lung capacity, but those won't be known about if they don't require medical intervention. Of course, that intervention might not be required for many years after the infection itself, but that can't be second guessed now.

It’s not only a respiratory disease it’s muIti-organ. In particular fatigue appears to be a longer term issue for some people. We can’t know long term yet. The effects seem to have some similarities to the Chronic Fatigue Syndrome group of maladies. In this respect it is more impactful than Flu. These longer term symptoms seem to be more prevalent in younger people starting in their 20s through middle age. I think we will need to be on our guard against this virus for a long time, maybe forever.

The ONS have started tracking Long Covid but have only published results for people suffering up to 12 weeks so far.

[Just_a_fan]

.

Having said that, there is a small subset that might have long term issues with reduced lung capacity, but those won't be known about if they don't require medical intervention. Of course, that intervention might not be required for many years after the infection itself, but that can't be second guessed now.

It’s not only a respiratory disease it’s muIti-organ. In particular fatigue appears to be a longer term issue for some people. We can’t know long term yet. The effects seem to have some similarities to the Chronic Fatigue Syndrome group of maladies. In this respect it is more impactful than Flu. These longer term symptoms seem to be more prevalent in younger people starting in their 20s through middle age. I think we will need to be on our guard against this virus for a long time, maybe forever.

The ONS have started tracking Long Covid but have only published results for people suffering up to 12 weeks so far.

Indeed, but so far as Governments keeping their populations locked down (and F1 circuits empty of spectators), long covid won't be a factor. As soon as the health systems of a country can manage the hospitalisation numbers on top of the rest of their usual patients, Governments will move to open up and circuits will be allowed to have spectators. That's the point where Covid will stop to impact the season - the central issue of this thread. Long covid is unfortunate but likely to be very far behind the likes of obesity (and its associated illnesses such as diabetes) in terms of its impact on the health system.

[henry]

.

Having said that, there is a small subset that might have long term issues with reduced lung capacity, but those won't be known about if they don't require medical intervention. Of course, that intervention might not be required for many years after the infection itself, but that can't be second guessed now.

It’s not only a respiratory disease it’s muIti-organ. In particular fatigue appears to be a longer term issue for some people. We can’t know long term yet. The effects seem to have some similarities to the Chronic Fatigue Syndrome group of maladies. In this respect it is more impactful than Flu. These longer term symptoms seem to be more prevalent in younger people starting in their 20s through middle age. I think we will need to be on our guard against this virus for a long time, maybe forever.

The ONS have started tracking Long Covid but have only published results for people suffering up to 12 weeks so far.

Indeed, but so far as Governments keeping their populations locked down (and F1 circuits empty of spectators), long covid won't be a factor. As soon as the health systems of a country can manage the hospitalisation numbers on top of the rest of their usual patients, Governments will move to open up and circuits will be allowed to have spectators. That's the point where Covid will stop to impact the season - the central issue of this thread. Long covid is unfortunate but likely to be very far behind the likes of obesity (and its associated illnesses such as diabetes) in terms of its impact on the health system.

I can’t disagree with your analysis.

I was simply responding to the point that ongoing issues would be confined to a small subset with respiratory problems.

[adrianjordan]

.

Having said that, there is a small subset that might have long term issues with reduced lung capacity, but those won't be known about if they don't require medical intervention. Of course, that intervention might not be required for many years after the infection itself, but that can't be second guessed now.

It’s not only a respiratory disease it’s muIti-organ. In particular fatigue appears to be a longer term issue for some people. We can’t know long term yet. The effects seem to have some similarities to the Chronic Fatigue Syndrome group of maladies. In this respect it is more impactful than Flu. These longer term symptoms seem to be more prevalent in younger people starting in their 20s through middle age. I think we will need to be on our guard against this virus for a long time, maybe forever.

The ONS have started tracking Long Covid but have only published results for people suffering up to 12 weeks so far.

Indeed, but so far as Governments keeping their populations locked down (and F1 circuits empty of spectators), long covid won't be a factor. As soon as the health systems of a country can manage the hospitalisation numbers on top of the rest of their usual patients, Governments will move to open up and circuits will be allowed to have spectators. That's the point where Covid will stop to impact the season - the central issue of this thread. Long covid is unfortunate but likely to be very far behind the likes of obesity (and its associated illnesses such as diabetes) in terms of its impact on the health system.

I think that, at some point, Long Covid will get grouped in with all the other conditions under the COPD umbrella term.