2021 Pecking order prediction

[MKlaus]

after following 3 days of testing, here is my prediction based on long runs. bahrain is not a good reference track for chassis capabilities.

- aston didn't do a race sim, but looking at their stint numbers and if my hunch is right, they seemed to have focused only and only on first stint of a race for both their drivers, all through the day.
- mercedes seems like they did the same. just focusing on first stint of the race. the car looks calm and supremely fast on long runs. quite itchy on quali runs.
- i took perez's yesterday's race sim for reference. today was a better day for testing overall. so the following prediction about redbull could be questionable and they might be second along with aston.

1. mercedes
2. aston martin
3. redbull/mclaren
4. alpine/ferrari/alfa
5. alpha tauri
6. williams
7. haas

[Schuttelberg]

Good to see that a lot of people are not buying Mercedes' BS.

[TheFluffy]

after following 3 days of testing, here is my prediction based on long runs. bahrain is not a good reference track for chassis capabilities.

- aston didn't do a race sim, but looking at their stint numbers and if my hunch is right, they seemed to have focused only and only on first stint of a race for both their drivers, all through the day.
- mercedes seems like they did the same. just focusing on first stint of the race. the car looks calm and supremely fast on long runs. quite itchy on quali runs.
- i took perez's yesterday's race sim for reference. today was a better day for testing overall. so the following prediction about redbull could be questionable and they might be second along with aston.

1. mercedes
2. aston martin
3. redbull/mclaren
4. alpine/ferrari/alfa
5. alpha tauri
6. williams
7. haas

What did you base your judgement on to get Aston second? I didn’t really see astonishing average stint times from their limited running. And also alpha tauri had better pace than the ferraris

[mkay]

Tier 1. Red Bull

Tier 2. McLaren / Alpha Tauri / Mercedes / Alpine / Ferrari

Tier 2B. Alfa Romeo / Aston Martin

Tier 3. Williams / Haas

[MKlaus]

after following 3 days of testing, here is my prediction based on long runs. bahrain is not a good reference track for chassis capabilities.

- aston didn't do a race sim, but looking at their stint numbers and if my hunch is right, they seemed to have focused only and only on first stint of a race for both their drivers, all through the day.
- mercedes seems like they did the same. just focusing on first stint of the race. the car looks calm and supremely fast on long runs. quite itchy on quali runs.
- i took perez's yesterday's race sim for reference. today was a better day for testing overall. so the following prediction about redbull could be questionable and they might be second along with aston.

1. mercedes
2. aston martin
3. redbull/mclaren
4. alpine/ferrari/alfa
5. alpha tauri
6. williams
7. haas

What did you base your judgement on to get Aston second? I didn’t really see astonishing average stint times from their limited running. And also alpha tauri had better pace than the ferraris

like i mentioned, i looked at the race sims and long runs.
stroll had 5 stints (3 stints of 12 laps with C3, C4, C4 and C2 and one short stint of 6 laps on C3).
vettel had 4 stints (3 stints of 12 laps each all with C2 and one short stint of 7 laps on C3).

[Schuttelberg]

Another long season ahead for Seb and his fans. Really disappointed. Stroll already has twice the laps as Vettel and the car looks awful!

[MKlaus]

Another long season ahead for Seb and his fans. Really disappointed. Stroll already has twice the laps as Vettel and the car looks awful!

i saw seb's onboards and it didn't look like he was fighting or doing any kind of corrections on his runs in any of the corners. they were simply trying to drive to a delta and achieve consistency while trying to reduce the tyre deg. they would be an unknown territory of not having done quali runs though.

[LM10]

after following 3 days of testing, here is my prediction based on long runs. bahrain is not a good reference track for chassis capabilities.

- aston didn't do a race sim, but looking at their stint numbers and if my hunch is right, they seemed to have focused only and only on first stint of a race for both their drivers, all through the day.
- mercedes seems like they did the same. just focusing on first stint of the race. the car looks calm and supremely fast on long runs. quite itchy on quali runs.
- i took perez's yesterday's race sim for reference. today was a better day for testing overall. so the following prediction about redbull could be questionable and they might be second along with aston.

1. mercedes
2. aston martin
3. redbull/mclaren
4. alpine/ferrari/alfa
5. alpha tauri
6. williams
7. haas

What did you base your judgement on to get Aston second? I didn’t really see astonishing average stint times from their limited running. And also alpha tauri had better pace than the ferraris

like i mentioned, i looked at the race sims and long runs.
stroll had 5 stints (3 stints of 12 laps with C3, C4, C4 and C2 and one short stint of 6 laps on C3).
vettel had 4 stints (3 stints of 12 laps each all with C2 and one short stint of 7 laps on C3).

It’s nothing more than guesstimate from
your side. Suggesting that Mercedes’ and Aston’s stints were the first stints of a race sim. There is absolutely no proof for that and it’s also not possible to know the fuel amount.

Looking at how bad testing went for both teams and how less time they had, I’ve the feeling that the stints they made were mostly setup work as that’s what you need to do first before going for race sims towards the end of testing.

[MKlaus]

What did you base your judgement on to get Aston second? I didn’t really see astonishing average stint times from their limited running. And also alpha tauri had better pace than the ferraris

like i mentioned, i looked at the race sims and long runs.
stroll had 5 stints (3 stints of 12 laps with C3, C4, C4 and C2 and one short stint of 6 laps on C3).
vettel had 4 stints (3 stints of 12 laps each all with C2 and one short stint of 7 laps on C3).

It’s nothing more than guesstimate from
your side. Suggesting that Mercedes’ and Aston’s stints were the first stints of a race sim. There is absolutely no proof for that and it’s also not possible to know the fuel amount.

Looking at how bad testing went for both teams and how less time they had, I’ve the feeling that the stints they made were mostly setup work as that’s what you need to do first before going for race sims towards the end of testing.

i agree it is just guesstimate. nobody possibly know what each team was doing, what engine mode and what fuel levels. my guess work is purely based on whatever numbers i could make sense of.

one observation that i used to determine aston was doing first stint work was that, in every single race sim for almost every car, you would observe that, in the first stint, the lap times increase (more deg due to high fuel) and in second stint, it stabilizes and in 3rd, it drops (times get faster). i used that as a reference to determine aston was doing first stint work. very unscientific, but that's all i could do.

[Sevach]

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/merc ... l/5729932/

[zibby43]

Tier 1. Red Bull

Tier 2. McLaren / Alpha Tauri / Mercedes / Alpine / Ferrari

Tier 2B. Alfa Romeo / Aston Martin

Tier 3. Williams / Haas

Marcin Budkowski:

“We still expect Mercedes at the front. Clearly they had a few issues and they were probably sandbagging a little bit at the beginning of the test. We still expect Red Bull to be strong.”

“But behind them it’s a field, really, and where we are in this field is difficult to say. I expect it to be competitive. McLaren seem good, seem quick. Aston Martin, when they actually run, seem pretty quick. The rest I don’t know, really.”

[JPower]

Haven't seen any separation in the midfield. My opinion is the same now as it was going into testing outside of Alpha Tauri being a little better than expected.

[godlameroso]

Testing is done and dusted. My tired ol' eyes see...

Mercedes/Red Bull, too close to call. The gap hasn't widened it's closed, there's zero doubt about that.

McLaren is closer to Mercedes probably where Red Bull was last year at the start of the season. Trouble is, so is everyone else that isn't a Haas, Williams, or Alfa.

This means that it's too close to call between A(lpha)A(ston)A(lpine)M(cLaren)F(errari) AAAMF.

Which also means it's a tight race between Haas Williams and Alfa.

Aero development will be important, because last year big gains were made with bolt on items. The question is how long will it be worth developing?

They should just run these cars for another year

[mkay]

Tier 1. Red Bull

Tier 2. McLaren / Alpha Tauri / Mercedes / Alpine / Ferrari

Tier 2B. Alfa Romeo / Aston Martin

Tier 3. Williams / Haas

Marcin Budkowski:

“We still expect Mercedes at the front. Clearly they had a few issues and they were probably sandbagging a little bit at the beginning of the test. We still expect Red Bull to be strong.”

“But behind them it’s a field, really, and where we are in this field is difficult to say. I expect it to be competitive. McLaren seem good, seem quick. Aston Martin, when they actually run, seem pretty quick. The rest I don’t know, really.”

Of course it's normal for midfield teams to be cautious especially with Mercedes, fearing getting ahead of themselves. I think it's the same online, whether here or on Reddit. Nobody wants to write Merc off until we see what they're made of during FP2's quali/race sims (given FP3 is unrepresentative at Bahrain) or qualifying itself.

We'll see in two weeks. Happy to be proven wrong then, but I suspect RB will win at a canter. Whether Merc makes it easily to Q3/podium remains to be seen, IMO.

[ME4ME]

Which also means it's a tight race between Haas Williams and Alfa.

I don't think it is. I think Alfa Romeo is about half a second faster than Williams, who in turn are half a second faster than Haas. Just my estimate of course, but I think there is a clear order among those teams.