2021 Pecking order prediction

[godlameroso]

The GP is next weekend, where's the race thread? I have a weather prediction for the GP weekend. Dry and windy, less warm at night. Wind blowing to the SSE. I know, the accuracy is astonishing, but I can't take the credit, my finger held to the wind does most of the work.

[JordanMugen]

1. Red Bull 1:27.06
2. Alpha Tauri 1:27.70
3. Ferrari 1:27.96
4. Mercedes 1:28.04
5. McLaren 1:28.09
6. Alpine 1:28.67
7. Alfa Romeo 1:29.43
8. Williams 1:29.79
9. Haas 1:30.90
https://www.skysports.com/f1/news/12433 ... bahrain-gp

Interesting "analysis" by SkySports.

While I would not complain if this was the grid -- it would be just lovely to see a Red Bull 1-2 and AlphaTauri 3-4 on the grid, I'm not sure I would bet on the likelihood of that outcome either...

this is the same team that has demonstrated their skills over varying regulations, yet has comfortably won 7 double titles. every time a problem has struck, they came back with even stronger performance. just shows the quality of their knowledge, tools and processes. all that wouldn't vanish a minute.

Allison and co have always had a much better power unit than Newey, Wache and co. It doesn't necessarily mean that Newey, Wache and co are the inferior team of chassis engineers than their Mercedes counterparts... This Red Bull engineering team has excellent stability of personnel too and consistently high quality of design and concept.

It seems like you are mixing the efforts of the power unit team and chassis team as if they are the same thing. What has always been bizarre is the refusal to supply the Mercedes power units to Red Bull, such that the efforts of Mercedes HPP would benefit Mercedes GP and Red Bull Racing equally, in the spirit of friendly competition.

Red Bull Racing would gladly pay the commercial rates that Williams or McLaren pay for the customer power units, and Red Bull Racing is a business of strong financial solvency without the credit issues of other F1 teams like Force India or Manor Racing, yet no contract was offered to Red Bull -- but instead to Manor Racing who then went out of business.

It would have been great to see a battle of Mercedes-Mercedes and Red Bull-Mercedes from 2016 to present day.

I feel like this is due in part to Red Bull's tendency to start off very slowly at the beginning of the season. If they started much faster (e.g., 2018, 2019, 2020), they may not have clawed back as much performance over the season.

Red Bull did not start 2018 slow, they had the best chassis throughout the season, it was just severely comprimised by a very mediocre engine that was around 40 horsepower down on Mercedes and significantly more unreliable to boot.

If true, the lack of the aforementioned Mercedes HPP customer power unit in the 2018 Red Bull is unfortunate.

It's almost as if Mercedes-Benz do not wish innovations of Mercedes HPP to benefit Mercedes GP and Red Bull Racing equally!?

[MKlaus]

this is the same team that has demonstrated their skills over varying regulations, yet has comfortably won 7 double titles. every time a problem has struck, they came back with even stronger performance. just shows the quality of their knowledge, tools and processes. all that wouldn't vanish a minute.

Allison and co have always had a much better power unit than Newey, Wache and co. It doesn't necessarily mean that Newey, Wache and co are the inferior team of chassis engineers than their Mercedes counterparts... This Red Bull engineering team has excellent stability of personnel too and consistently high quality of design and concept.

It seems like you are mixing the efforts of the power unit team and chassis team as if they are the same thing. What has always been bizarre is the refusal to supply the Mercedes power units to Red Bull, such that the efforts of Mercedes HPP would benefit Mercedes GP and Red Bull Racing equally, in the spirit of friendly competition.

Red Bull Racing would gladly pay the commercial rates that Williams or McLaren pay for the customer power units, and Red Bull Racing is a business of strong financial solvency without the credit issues of other F1 teams like Force India or Manor Racing, yet no contract was offered to Red Bull -- but instead to Manor Racing who then went out of business.

It would have been great to see a battle of Mercedes-Mercedes and Red Bull-Mercedes from 2016 to present day.

It's gross oversimplification when mercedes success is wrapped under engine guise.
2017 aero changes were brought because of pressure from red bull and mclaren, both of whom claimed they have better chassis and struggling because of pu and needed more opportunities on aero side. red bull turned up with a complete dud in 2017. 2018 wasn't any different either. in 2019 and 2020 they created unpredictable cars that claimed careers of two young drivers and without verstappen's talent, the situation could have been more humiliating. they even pushed for quali mode ban last year, but result wasn't any different. in previous years they had pushed for oil burning bans to slow down mercedes.

that doesn't sound like a team that is on par with mercedes when it comes to building great chassis in the hybrid era. they may get it right at some point, but so far they haven't and by that, they are not on par, not yet.

in a recent interview, john owen explained how they deliberately kept the attention on pu rather than on their chassis to avoid anyone copying their ideas, which is what everyone fell for.

mercedes not supplying red bull has two reasons. one, obviously mercedes didn't want to help competition, which they have every right to do. this is competition and everyone is out there for themselves and not for charity. two, red bull was a bad customer as proven with renault saga. what is more bizarre is, why red bull waited this long to have their own engine division?

[Just_a_fan]

The GP is next weekend, where's the race thread? I have a weather prediction for the GP weekend. Dry and windy, less warm at night. Wind blowing to the SSE. I know, the accuracy is astonishing, but I can't take the credit, my finger held to the wind does most of the work.

You could set up the race thread yourself...

[DiogoBrand]

"You've developed a really strong engine, so you should supply it to your closest competitor to let them have a chance of beating you"
Why didn't Red Bull do like Mercedes and developed their own engine then? Mercedes is supposed to invest tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars in development to then just give that to the competition?

BTW if the motorsport journalists are to be trusted RBR will destroy Mercedes this year so everyone will be really happy.

[F1Krof]

My Pecking Order Prediction for 2021 (at least for the first 5 opening races):
1) RBR
|+0.4
2) Mercedes
|+0.5
3) McLaren
4) Alpha Tauri
5) Ferrari
6) Alpine
|+0.5
7) Aston Martin
8 ) Alpha Romeo
|+1.0
|+0.5
9) Haas
10) Williams

[proteus]

My Pecking Order Prediction for 2021 (at least for the first 5 opening races):
1) RBR
|+0.4
2) Mercedes
|+0.5
3) McLaren
4) Alpha Tauri
5) Ferrari
6) Alpine
|+0.5
7) Aston Martin
8 ) Alpha Romeo
|+1.0
|+0.5
9) Haas
10) Williams

I dont understand why would you rate Williams lower than Haas, since Haas didnt invest any tokens into their car, while Williams was allready better than them in the second half of the last season? Not to mention that Williams have more experienced driver pairing as well.

[JordanMugen]

"You've developed a really strong engine, so you should supply it to your closest competitor to let them have a chance of beating you"
Why didn't Red Bull do like Mercedes and developed their own engine then? Mercedes is supposed to invest tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars in development to then just give that to the competition?

Mercedes HPP and Mercedes GP are completely different companies. Revenue from Mercedes HPP customer sales are independent of Mercedes GP. Selling power units or engines is an integral part of Formula One racing for power unit builders.

For example, Mechachrome supplied many F1 chassis builders, and Renault too supplied McLaren, where McLaren Racing and Renault F1 Team are chassis competitors.

There's no "giving" going on!? McLaren pay fair commercial rates for the Renault or Mercedes HPP power units, just as Red Bull would do for customer power units.

that doesn't sound like a team that is on par with mercedes when it comes to building great chassis in the hybrid era.

How can you know that if Red Bull had less power unit output at their disposal? The 1995 Benetton-Renault was more difficult to handle than the 1995 Williams-Renault, yet the Benetton was still the championship winning car. Having the same power unit supplier (in that case Renault), made this comparison more straightforward.

obviously mercedes didn't want to help competition, which they have every right to do.

No, they don't have that right. Mercedes HPP have to supply a set number of teams as a power unit supplier when called upon, as the sporting regulations specify. Just as Renault or Red Bull Powertrains will have to do so too.

It would seem unreasonable that Mercedes HPP would do things like signing up an insolvent Manor Racing instead of Red Bull Racing, whereas Red Bull Powertrains will, on the other hand, gladly sign up Brackley Grand Prix team when called upon.

[MKlaus]

obviously mercedes didn't want to help competition, which they have every right to do.

No, they don't have that right. Mercedes HPP have to supply a set number of teams as a power unit supplier when called upon, as the sporting regulations specify. Just as Renault or Red Bull Powertrains will have to do so too.

It would seem unreasonable that Mercedes HPP would do things like signing up an insolvent Manor Racing instead of Red Bull Racing, whereas Red Bull Powertrains will, on the other hand, gladly sign up Brackley Grand Prix team when called upon.

mercedes had the option of supplying to 4 teams and they chose it wisely, which they were entitled to. like i mentioned, red bull didn't conduct themselves well in renault seperation and if a manufacturer takes objection of that and doesn't supply to that team, there is nothing in rules to force the supply. besides, whichever customer mercedes chose to supply, is their prerogative and there is nothing unreasonable about it. if red bull was serious about competing, instead of expecting mercedes to supply engines, they should have started building their own engines. other than the fantasy of f1 fans, there was no good competitive or commercial reason for mercedes to provide engines to red bull.

[_cerber1]

[Tizz]

I think that with Max's comments on motorsport.com in mind, Mercedes is unfortunately still the car to beat...

[holeindalip]

this is the same team that has demonstrated their skills over varying regulations, yet has comfortably won 7 double titles. every time a problem has struck, they came back with even stronger performance. just shows the quality of their knowledge, tools and processes. all that wouldn't vanish a minute.

Allison and co have always had a much better power unit than Newey, Wache and co. It doesn't necessarily mean that Newey, Wache and co are the inferior team of chassis engineers than their Mercedes counterparts... This Red Bull engineering team has excellent stability of personnel too and consistently high quality of design and concept.

It seems like you are mixing the efforts of the power unit team and chassis team as if they are the same thing. What has always been bizarre is the refusal to supply the Mercedes power units to Red Bull, such that the efforts of Mercedes HPP would benefit Mercedes GP and Red Bull Racing equally, in the spirit of friendly competition.

Red Bull Racing would gladly pay the commercial rates that Williams or McLaren pay for the customer power units, and Red Bull Racing is a business of strong financial solvency without the credit issues of other F1 teams like Force India or Manor Racing, yet no contract was offered to Red Bull -- but instead to Manor Racing who then went out of business.

It would have been great to see a battle of Mercedes-Mercedes and Red Bull-Mercedes from 2016 to present day.

It's gross oversimplification when mercedes success is wrapped under engine guise.
2017 aero changes were brought because of pressure from red bull and mclaren, both of whom claimed they have better chassis and struggling because of pu and needed more opportunities on aero side. red bull turned up with a complete dud in 2017. 2018 wasn't any different either. in 2019 and 2020 they created unpredictable cars that claimed careers of two young drivers and without verstappen's talent, the situation could have been more humiliating. they even pushed for quali mode ban last year, but result wasn't any different. in previous years they had pushed for oil burning bans to slow down mercedes.

that doesn't sound like a team that is on par with mercedes when it comes to building great chassis in the hybrid era. they may get it right at some point, but so far they haven't and by that, they are not on par, not yet.

in a recent interview, john owen explained how they deliberately kept the attention on pu rather than on their chassis to avoid anyone copying their ideas, which is what everyone fell for.

mercedes not supplying red bull has two reasons. one, obviously mercedes didn't want to help competition, which they have every right to do. this is competition and everyone is out there for themselves and not for charity. two, red bull was a bad customer as proven with renault saga. what is more bizarre is, why red bull waited this long to have their own engine division?

I’m pretty sure the oil ban was for ferrari not Mercedes, Ferrari were the ones with and extra auxiliary oil tank...

[Kingshark]

this is the same team that has demonstrated their skills over varying regulations, yet has comfortably won 7 double titles. every time a problem has struck, they came back with even stronger performance. just shows the quality of their knowledge, tools and processes. all that wouldn't vanish a minute.

Allison and co have always had a much better power unit than Newey, Wache and co. It doesn't necessarily mean that Newey, Wache and co are the inferior team of chassis engineers than their Mercedes counterparts... This Red Bull engineering team has excellent stability of personnel too and consistently high quality of design and concept.

It seems like you are mixing the efforts of the power unit team and chassis team as if they are the same thing. What has always been bizarre is the refusal to supply the Mercedes power units to Red Bull, such that the efforts of Mercedes HPP would benefit Mercedes GP and Red Bull Racing equally, in the spirit of friendly competition.

Red Bull Racing would gladly pay the commercial rates that Williams or McLaren pay for the customer power units, and Red Bull Racing is a business of strong financial solvency without the credit issues of other F1 teams like Force India or Manor Racing, yet no contract was offered to Red Bull -- but instead to Manor Racing who then went out of business.

It would have been great to see a battle of Mercedes-Mercedes and Red Bull-Mercedes from 2016 to present day.

It's gross oversimplification when mercedes success is wrapped under engine guise.
2017 aero changes were brought because of pressure from red bull and mclaren, both of whom claimed they have better chassis and struggling because of pu and needed more opportunities on aero side. red bull turned up with a complete dud in 2017. 2018 wasn't any different either. in 2019 and 2020 they created unpredictable cars that claimed careers of two young drivers and without verstappen's talent, the situation could have been more humiliating. they even pushed for quali mode ban last year, but result wasn't any different. in previous years they had pushed for oil burning bans to slow down mercedes.

that doesn't sound like a team that is on par with mercedes when it comes to building great chassis in the hybrid era. they may get it right at some point, but so far they haven't and by that, they are not on par, not yet.

in a recent interview, john owen explained how they deliberately kept the attention on pu rather than on their chassis to avoid anyone copying their ideas, which is what everyone fell for.

Red Bull build a dud in 2017 and 2018? Those dud cars won 7 races despite a 40 horsepower deficit.

[Just_a_fan]

I posted the following in the Merc thread but it is more general and is pertinent to this thread.

There are some interesting trade off games to be played in the midfield. If you're sufficiently funded to be at the cost cap without the need for the prize money to "top up" your accounts, finishing lower down the title table gives you more time in the wind tunnel and CFD. Which potentially gives an advantage in the early part of the new regulation regime.

Could we see a team actively look to not finish so high in order to secure more development tools for the following season? A difference in one place on the table - say coming 6th instead of 5th - might not be too costly in terms of prize money but it might give a useful bonus in wind tunnel and CFD time.

https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/arti ... dYx8a.html

Is this a viable strategy?

[Manoah2u]

'Variables' aside (that means unexpected gremlins, tires popping, sandstorms, covid contraptions, etc) the pecking order will be:

Tier 1 : Mercedes vs RedBull (with Merc on top)
Tier 2 : Aston vs Mclaren vs Alpine vs Ferrari vs AlphaTauri vs AlfaRomeo
Tier 3 : Haas vs Williams

Tier 1 holds Merc still favourable but RBR close, mainly thanks to Perez, which would see Hamilton on top but RBR could actually challenge the WCC thanks to Perez.
Tier 3 Haas has hardly done anything to the car, so does Williams, Haas was still ahead of Williams end-2020, so that's how it is for 2021, however, Haas has Mazepin, Williams has Russell.

Tier 2 is the big game for 2021. Fully expect Aston Martin and Mclaren to be the strongest from the start, then Alpine will find themselves tangling with Ferrari and AlphaTauri.
by midseason I think Alpine will get up to steam a bit more and Aston will start having a bit of a drop, And Alpine gets to fight with Mclaren and Aston with Ferrari.
meanwhile Alfa and Alpha will have their fights and their moments.
By the end of the season Aston will have climed back, Mclaren will have stopped any development, Ferrari continued development and Alpine will come better to steam.
Expecting many collisions as a result as everybody will fight for that little bite out of the cake, which in the end will shake things up again.

My end result expectances:

WCC

1 Mercedes
2 RedBull
3 Aston Martin
4 Mclaren
5 Ferrari
6 Alpine
7 Alpha Tauri
8 Alfa Romeo
9 Haas
10 Williams

WDC

1 Hamilton
2 Verstappen
3 Perez
4 Vettel
5 Bottas
6 Ricciardo
7 Alonso
8 Sainz
9 Stroll
10 Ocon
11 LeClerc
12 Norris
13 Gasly
14 Tsunoda
15 Raikkonen
16 Giovanazzi
17 Russell
18 Schumacher
19 Latifi
20 Mazepin

Mclaren will be in front of Alpine anyway. They beat Renault with their own engine, despite being a customer.
Mclaren has had a better organisation either way and more stable at that too, and the Mercedes engine will benefit them even more.
Renault turned into Alpine, which gives additional headache however you put it. They have lost Ricciardo which was an important factor,
and got Alonso back for it which gives it a definate boost, but it's still a fresh comeback and adaptation process, not to forget Abiteboul left, and now Mr Suzuki is becoming a variable.
Whatever happens, whatever the situation, Mclaren has better cards than Alpine at this point.

Aston is the bigger question mark here but since they have put in a huge load of investment, work, and so much more to achieve something, and they have a Mercedes B-car, which they experimented on last season STILL with positive results (after all, RacingPoint had a win with Perez, Mclaren nor Renault achieved such a feat), they'll come out even stronger for 2021.
Vettel is freed from the burden of Ferrari, has 'rejuvenated' energy, and will be hungry to 'show em' who's boss. Will have some adapting struggles but that goes for Alonso just as much and just as much for Ricciardo too. 3 days of pre-season testing are hardly a guaranteed benchmark. They're all professionals with great experience but they're all still adapting to their 'new' environment.

Ferrari will come and mix in the game with improved aero and engine, but have lost their experienced driver, Sainz will also have to adapt and both Leclerc and Sainz will want to start a measuring contest, meanwhile they're not gonna be able to go for a win by any means, so Italy will burn the team to the ground and inevitably Binotto is going to have to go. All will have it's influence.

Alfa Romeo might actually find themselves in a healthier environment than Ferrari itself, but they'll be prohibited to beat the mother of mothers (the reds).

Alpha Tauri is a free agent, and able to cross throughout the field. However, the competition is tightlier packed, and though Gasly certainly has gained, Tsunoda is a young gun but still an absolute rookie. Also, they're there certainly to benefit RedBull Honda, and as such, will most likely be playing cards for RBR, including parts and engine 'tricks'. Meanwhile, will be a strategic buffer for pitstop benefits, so they'll be more of a 'pawn' than being able to 'go all out'. As such, despite shining here and there, that'll cost them.

So if i'd have to further detail TIER 2:

i'd say this is the real tier 2 battle:

Aston vs Mclaren
Alpine vs Ferrari
Alpha vs Alfa

In that order.