2021 Pre-season testing. Bahrain 12-14 March

[JordanMugen]

another FOM prediction, this time from weekend debrief:
Circular dots are predicted positions and horizontal lines are margin of error for best case scenario and worst case scenario.

https://i.imgur.com/taJfVU9.jpg

Adding error bars is certainly an improvement in statistical robustness - well done FOM!

Given the 95% confidence intervals, it suggests a less than 5% chance of a Mercedes-Benz pole position.

[ferkan]

From Albano (FP, very detailed and on point analysis)



https://www.formulapassion.it/manifesto ... 56268.html

[Just_a_fan]

From Albano (FP, very detailed and on point analysis)

https://www.formulapassion.it/wp-conten ... ria_FP.jpg

https://www.formulapassion.it/manifesto ... 56268.html

It appears that either Honda and Ferrari have overtaken Mercedes in the PU stakes, or Mercedes were sandbagging. Mercedes lost loads of time on straights.

[ferkan]

Merc has the best one for sure. Customer teams data shows it, although difference seems small enough.

Ferrari gained north of 40HP, according to F1AT, which would put it at a level of Merc last year (which was also aim for Honda). I think Renault will be slowest this year, as Ferrari engined cars all had biggest RW as well and were ahead.

[Jambier]

So Ferrari and Honda gained 40hp
Mercedes 25?

Renault is doing only thing for 2022 so a +10-15hp max, they will struggle this year

[JPBD1990]

From Albano (FP, very detailed and on point analysis)

https://www.formulapassion.it/wp-conten ... ria_FP.jpg

https://www.formulapassion.it/manifesto ... 56268.html

This just looks a lot like Ferrari used a higher engine mode than Mercedes. Which is to no ones surprise.

They seem to have lower apex speeds everywhere, so I don’t expect to see them fighting at the front this season. Maybe best of the rest against McLaren? I for one am up for that - clash of the classic titans, and let Mercedes and redbull do their own thing out front.

[JPBD1990]

From Albano (FP, very detailed and on point analysis)

https://www.formulapassion.it/wp-conten ... ria_FP.jpg

https://www.formulapassion.it/manifesto ... 56268.html

Do you know if this poster has similar graphs for Ferrari vs Alfa, redbull vs AT, merc vs Williams, for example? It’s obviously hard to discern between engine power and aero differences, but would be interesting to see straight line speeds of the same engines in different cars.

[Oehrly]

From Albano (FP, very detailed and on point analysis)

https://www.formulapassion.it/wp-conten ... ria_FP.jpg

https://www.formulapassion.it/manifesto ... 56268.html

Do you know if this poster has similar graphs for Ferrari vs Alfa, redbull vs AT, merc vs Williams, for example? It’s obviously hard to discern between engine power and aero differences, but would be interesting to see straight line speeds of the same engines in different cars.

For Redbull vs AlphaTauri I have made a graph which I posted in the Redbull team thread here:
viewtopic.php?p=958683#p958683

Concerning mercedes in the above graph. They're effectively losing time everywhere, on straights and in corners. Comparing cornering speeds is a bit difficult in these graphs because the lines are so close together there. I'm pretty sure they were holding back to some extend at least.

[JPBD1990]

From Albano (FP, very detailed and on point analysis)

https://www.formulapassion.it/wp-conten ... ria_FP.jpg

https://www.formulapassion.it/manifesto ... 56268.html

Do you know if this poster has similar graphs for Ferrari vs Alfa, redbull vs AT, merc vs Williams, for example? It’s obviously hard to discern between engine power and aero differences, but would be interesting to see straight line speeds of the same engines in different cars.

For Redbull vs AlphaTauri I have made a graph which I posted in the Redbull team thread here:
viewtopic.php?p=958683#p958683

Concerning mercedes in the above graph. They're effectively losing time everywhere, on straights and in corners. Comparing cornering speeds is a bit difficult in these graphs because the lines are so close together there. I'm pretty sure they were holding back to some extend at least.

Incredible! Thank you

[mclaren111]

Not sure if this has been posted yet...

Quite the Variety...

[henry]

From Albano (FP, very detailed and on point analysis)

https://www.formulapassion.it/wp-conten ... ria_FP.jpg

https://www.formulapassion.it/manifesto ... 56268.html

FWIW I always compare the speeds at the start and finish of the lap for each trace. It tends to reveal something about resource use across the lap particularly ERS and tyres.

For Verstappen the speeds are almost identical suggesting the same ERS deployment at the beginning and end of the lap and tyres in similar condition.

For Hamilton the start speed is lower, 2 or 3 kph at the start than the beginning suggesting he didn’t push through turn 14 at the beginning of the lap and had plenty of ERS left at the end. Despite the slow start to the lap he was as quick as Verstappen at the end of the start finish straight.

For Sainz the start speed is much higher than the end, 5 or 6 kph , it looks as though he ran out of ERS and maybe some tyre with a low apex speed at turn 14.

In past traces I’ve looked at on Q laps the finish speed is usually a little lower than the start. I’d conclude that Verstappen was cruising, Hamilton wasn’t pushing, at least at the start of the lap, and Sainz was nearer to using up his tyres and ERS than the other 2.

[HungarianRacer]

From Albano (FP, very detailed and on point analysis)

https://www.formulapassion.it/wp-conten ... ria_FP.jpg

https://www.formulapassion.it/manifesto ... 56268.html

FWIW I always compare the speeds at the start and finish of the lap for each trace. It tends to reveal something about resource use across the lap particularly ERS and tyres.

For Verstappen the speeds are almost identical suggesting the same ERS deployment at the beginning and end of the lap and tyres in similar condition.

For Hamilton the start speed is lower, 2 or 3 kph at the start than the beginning suggesting he didn’t push through turn 14 at the beginning of the lap and had plenty of ERS left at the end. Despite the slow start to the lap he was as quick as Verstappen at the end of the start finish straight.

For Sainz the start speed is much higher than the end, 5 or 6 kph , it looks as though he ran out of ERS and maybe some tyre with a low apex speed at turn 14.

In past traces I’ve looked at on Q laps the finish speed is usually a little lower than the start. I’d conclude that Verstappen was cruising, Hamilton wasn’t pushing, at least at the start of the lap, and Sainz was nearer to using up his tyres and ERS than the other 2.

Acceleration above 290 km/h will always tell more about aero setup or inherit drag levels of certian cars rather than power output, because at those speeds the resistive forces are such that even a relatively big power difference will make little difference, plus it's safe to assume that everyone would get similar levels of de-rating, regardless of engine mode (no point in wasting energy against that kind of resistance just before a braking zone).

[henry]

From Albano (FP, very detailed and on point analysis)

https://www.formulapassion.it/wp-conten ... ria_FP.jpg

https://www.formulapassion.it/manifesto ... 56268.html

For Hamilton the start speed is lower, 2 or 3 kph at the start than the beginning suggesting he didn’t push through turn 14 at the beginning of the lap and had plenty of ERS left at the end. Despite the slow start to the lap he was as quick as Verstappen at the end of the start finish straight.

Acceleration above 290 km/h will always tell more about aero setup or inherit drag levels of certian cars rather than power output, because at those speeds the resistive forces are such that even a relatively big power difference will make little difference, plus it's safe to assume that everyone would get similar levels of de-rating, regardless of engine mode (no point in wasting energy against that kind of resistance just before a braking zone).

I meant ERS at the end of the lap rather than end of the straight. I agree that it is unlikely that they will be using the MGU-K at the end of the straight.

But yes, we might draw the conclusion that the Mercedes had lower drag, and lower downforce?, than the Red Bull, most noticeable through 5,6,7.

Nonetheless, had Hamilton attacked the beginning of the lap his speed at the end of the start finish straight would have been several kph higher.

[Blackout]

Merc has the best one for sure. Customer teams data shows it, although difference seems small enough.

Ferrari gained north of 40HP, according to F1AT, which would put it at a level of Merc last year (which was also aim for Honda). I think Renault will be slowest this year, as Ferrari engined cars all had biggest RW as well and were ahead.

Renault speed traps were nothing special during winter testing in 2019 and 2020, but they were very good during the season in qualy and race.

[Hoffman900]

Love all the speculative dyno racing going on here.