2021 Rules hit Mercedes hard. Not a coincidence.

[V12-POWER]

Does anyone else feel this 2021 regulation change is suspiciously damaging to the low rake cars?

I do not believe it is a coincidence that FIA finally achieved at this time, what they want, which is to handicap Mercedes.

FIA have a technical department at their disposal, and they had many years to figure how to slow Mercedes, and couldn't. They banned team radio. They limited oil burning. They changed to wider cars. They changed the front wings. Banned FRIC. Banned the DAS. Banned quali-modes. Banned blown spokes. All sorts of monkey business which did not work. Yet this last change, at this time... hit like a master stroke! With their poor record of slowing the cars, I don't believe that the 2021 rules were deduced entirely by the FIA. Conspiracy was definitely at play.

Either someone inside the FIA was very good at finding the needle in the aerodynamic haystack; kicking Mercedes in the left nut - cutting back the edge of the floor through some sort of devil-worshiping work in the windtunnel. Or they got some sort of 3D scan of the W10/W11 floor.

How else could they know?! How else could they know that cutting back the floor would hurt Mercedes so much?! Racing point had Mercedes W10 clould data. Remember that? RP had to hand it over for scrutiny...

That oppounity would have flashed like a bomb for the FIA. FIA would have analysed the hell out of that Mercedes 3D cloud data.

They not only figured out how to slow them. There was another golden opportunity. Mercedes could not react to any changes to hurt them in the wind- tunnel because the change would be too drastic to make. It was the perfect scheme. Hit Mercedes where it hurts and when they can't recover. To rub salt in the wonds the budget cap was argued down even lower than the original $175 million. Too many factors to be a coincidence.

The FIA brought Ferrari to the ground in 2020 for “cheating” even though they couldn’t not figure out what they were doing even if they life depended on it. you were the one cheering the most when this happened

The FIA has most definitely helped Mercedes back then before the hybrid engines were introduced (words of a man called Bernie Ecclestone, which do seem to make sense)

The FIA AND THE FOM have been creating a type of narrative in which Mercedes is the good, intelligent, fair-player, harmonious, unbeatable team for years now. A clear case of this is the DAS which anyone can see it was kind of bs with the

“yeah hehe you can use it this year but the next one it’s gonna be banned”

yet you come here and say the FIA wants mercedes to be slower? youre out of your mind, and in any case, Mercedes has been getting aid from the FIA even before 2014

[CSavoy]

The funny thing about all of this "Mercedes was hit on purpose!!" is that other teams fans claimed the same when there were rules changes that affected then.
The facts are that basically all rule changes of the last 5 years were of more universal impact and weren't meant to privilege any team.
2017 overhaul? Everyone had to change and the new rules didn't hit Mercedes core aero strengths (you could even argue the new rules were a good thing for Mercedes, despite Ferrari getting close to them).
Limited oil burning? Ferrari was the most affected by it, and basically had an engine banned because of it.
Front wing change? All top teams were hurt by it. Midfield teams were benefited by the simplicity. One could make the argument that high rake cars took the largest hit, but I am not certain about it.
Pirelli changing their tires? Most of the times the changes worked for Mercedes or were neutral.
FRIC ban? Red Bull and Renault were also affected by it.
Quali mode ban? Yes, it hurt Mercedes, but didn't take away their dominance.
DAS was banned for 2021 even before it debuted, ironically.
This year's ruled changes weren't ment to be a big deal and everyone thought the grid would be stagnant. By surprise Red Bull nailed their concept and Mercedes messed up a little bit. Bad luck for the silver arrows, it happens.
If you want to blame anyone, blame Adrian Newey.

PS: Hamilton saying that the changes were "aimed at slowing down Mercedes" is a classic mindgame.

To say they messed up the concept definitely isn’t fair. That concept has won them seven straight in this era. These regs for 2021, whether purposeful or otherwise have come in unexpectedly, hit low rake cars harder (which I expect they will have realised months ago) and the chances to do anything significant about it in the off-season is extremely limited due to the unprecedented limitations put on development and testing. Just a bit of a perfect storm.

It could be just that it needs more time to find an aero solution which will fix everything and actually they can come up with something even better, or it could just be that inherently a low rake car cannot be as good as a higher rake car given the parameters of what can be achieved in development and under these regs, and those running high rake have lucked into the superior concept for the season with the bonus of their competitors never having the chance to catch them.

I’d bet that if the Mercedes team had the usual development freedom for this season, then you’d see a high rake concept.

Yes, I was a bit unfair with the "messed up" part, they are still very competitive and I still think it is realistic that Hamilton can grab the title (Merc can also win the constructors championship). I meant only to say they made mistakes and didn't come up with the best possible aero.
I don't think thou that they would drop their low rake concept, they would just spend resources to make it work. This is not the first time that they come up with a "diva car", and every time they stuck with the low rake and got better.
Sometimes the rules just doesn't fit you immediately, you get outdeveloped (let's face it, Red Bull was getting closer already last season) and have to deal with it.

[El Scorchio]

The funny thing about all of this "Mercedes was hit on purpose!!" is that other teams fans claimed the same when there were rules changes that affected then.
The facts are that basically all rule changes of the last 5 years were of more universal impact and weren't meant to privilege any team.
2017 overhaul? Everyone had to change and the new rules didn't hit Mercedes core aero strengths (you could even argue the new rules were a good thing for Mercedes, despite Ferrari getting close to them).
Limited oil burning? Ferrari was the most affected by it, and basically had an engine banned because of it.
Front wing change? All top teams were hurt by it. Midfield teams were benefited by the simplicity. One could make the argument that high rake cars took the largest hit, but I am not certain about it.
Pirelli changing their tires? Most of the times the changes worked for Mercedes or were neutral.
FRIC ban? Red Bull and Renault were also affected by it.
Quali mode ban? Yes, it hurt Mercedes, but didn't take away their dominance.
DAS was banned for 2021 even before it debuted, ironically.
This year's ruled changes weren't ment to be a big deal and everyone thought the grid would be stagnant. By surprise Red Bull nailed their concept and Mercedes messed up a little bit. Bad luck for the silver arrows, it happens.
If you want to blame anyone, blame Adrian Newey.

PS: Hamilton saying that the changes were "aimed at slowing down Mercedes" is a classic mindgame.

To say they messed up the concept definitely isn’t fair. That concept has won them seven straight in this era. These regs for 2021, whether purposeful or otherwise have come in unexpectedly, hit low rake cars harder (which I expect they will have realised months ago) and the chances to do anything significant about it in the off-season is extremely limited due to the unprecedented limitations put on development and testing. Just a bit of a perfect storm.

It could be just that it needs more time to find an aero solution which will fix everything and actually they can come up with something even better, or it could just be that inherently a low rake car cannot be as good as a higher rake car given the parameters of what can be achieved in development and under these regs, and those running high rake have lucked into the superior concept for the season with the bonus of their competitors never having the chance to catch them.

I’d bet that if the Mercedes team had the usual development freedom for this season, then you’d see a high rake concept.

Yes, I was a bit unfair with the "messed up" part, they are still very competitive and I still think it is realistic that Hamilton can grab the title (Merc can also win the constructors championship). I meant only to say they made mistakes and didn't come up with the best possible aero.
I don't think thou that they would drop their low rake concept, they would just spend resources to make it work. This is not the first time that they come up with a "diva car", and every time they stuck with the low rake and got better.
Sometimes the rules just doesn't fit you immediately, you get outdeveloped (let's face it, Red Bull was getting closer already last season) and have to deal with it.

Well, they might have come up with the best possible aero that the rules permit them to from what their 2020 car was. Who knows!

This is why it’s such a tricky thing to quantify. Again I really don’t think it’s as simple this year as ‘team A outdeveloped team B’ because they didn’t start with the same base product to develop from. They may have actually done a better job on evolving 2020 but if their optimum solution just isn’t as fast as high rake then that’s just what it will come down to. If it turned out that low rake suited the new regs better and Mercedes were stronger, you couldn’t say they outdeveloped Red Bull. It could have just been impossible to develop as good a package from high rake as from low rake.

However, I think it’s going to make a fascinating season to see what if anything they can claw back!

[CSavoy]

To say they messed up the concept definitely isn’t fair. That concept has won them seven straight in this era. These regs for 2021, whether purposeful or otherwise have come in unexpectedly, hit low rake cars harder (which I expect they will have realised months ago) and the chances to do anything significant about it in the off-season is extremely limited due to the unprecedented limitations put on development and testing. Just a bit of a perfect storm.

It could be just that it needs more time to find an aero solution which will fix everything and actually they can come up with something even better, or it could just be that inherently a low rake car cannot be as good as a higher rake car given the parameters of what can be achieved in development and under these regs, and those running high rake have lucked into the superior concept for the season with the bonus of their competitors never having the chance to catch them.

I’d bet that if the Mercedes team had the usual development freedom for this season, then you’d see a high rake concept.

Yes, I was a bit unfair with the "messed up" part, they are still very competitive and I still think it is realistic that Hamilton can grab the title (Merc can also win the constructors championship). I meant only to say they made mistakes and didn't come up with the best possible aero.
I don't think thou that they would drop their low rake concept, they would just spend resources to make it work. This is not the first time that they come up with a "diva car", and every time they stuck with the low rake and got better.
Sometimes the rules just doesn't fit you immediately, you get outdeveloped (let's face it, Red Bull was getting closer already last season) and have to deal with it.

Well, they might have come up with the best possible aero that the rules permit them to from what their 2020 car was. Who knows!

This is why it’s such a tricky thing to quantify. Again I really don’t think it’s as simple this year as ‘team A outdeveloped team B’ because they didn’t start with the same base product to develop from. They may have actually done a better job on evolving 2020 but if their optimum solution just isn’t as fast as high rake then that’s just what it will come down to. If it turned out that low rake suited the new regs better and Mercedes were stronger, you couldn’t say they outdeveloped Red Bull. It could have just been impossible to develop as good a package from high rake as from low rake.

However, I think it’s going to make a fascinating season to see what if anything they can claw back!

The evidence is they didn't come up already optimal (the car is already better than during testing).
I understand your point of view that it is somewhat "easier" to develop a high rake car for the 2021 rules and, as a consequence, even if Mercedes had done an amazing job, Red Bull could do less and still come up ahead. I agree that these rules suit high rake cars better (the evidence says so), but Red Bull was only able to come up with a better car this year after seasons of enormous development effort. They had already gotten much closer last year, so they pulling ahead in 2021 feels almost like a continuation.

And yeah, fascinating season. Mercedes already showing on the first race they can win. I expect this ends the "conspiracy against Mercedes" theory, let's just be happy to have an exciting championship! [-o<

[Shrieker]

Where's the confidence in your star driver's qualities?

That didn't age well

[jjn9128]

Well well well @PZ such a shame that Merc were so far off the pace today. Only a win and a 3rd, must sting for those nasty FIA h8ers

[JordanMugen]

Does anyone else feel this 2021 regulation change is suspiciously damaging to the low rake cars?

Can't we discuss this in the existing thread? viewtopic.php?f=6&t=29622

If it was obvious the rule changes would be damaging, why didn't Wolff, Allison, Szafnauer or Green raise it when the rules changes were first announced?

Yes, I do, and so does Toto he said in an interview yesterday on SKY.

If so, why didn't Wolff announce his objections when the regulations were first announced?

[PlatinumZealot]

Does anyone else feel this 2021 regulation change is suspiciously damaging to the low rake cars?

Can't we discuss this in the existing thread? viewtopic.php?f=6&t=29622

If it was obvious the rule changes would be damaging, why didn't Wolff, Allison, Szafnauer or Green raise it when the rules changes were first announced?

Yes, I do, and so does Toto he said in an interview yesterday on SKY.

If so, why didn't Wolff announce his objections when the regulations were first announced?

I didn't want to dump a conpsiracy theoryvin the thread, forum rules and all.

I thought about why Wolff didn't react... I say it is overconfidence. Maybe Mercedes thought maybe all the cars would have suffered the same as them.

The result is not that bad, they have still a decent car but Mercedes strength of rear stability is gone. They seemed to be running well in high speed, but weaker in medium to low speed.

I have a few Ideas of how Mercedes could modify the floor but they will lose some high speed fownforce.

[Shrieker]

The only thing that makes your hypothesis plausible, is the fact that the FIA having the data from all the teams. So maybe they analysed it and came up with a solution that hinders Merc more than the others. Even then it is a stretch PZ. And even if that's the case, they haven't done a very good job, have they

[aMessageToCharlie]

Where's the confidence in your star driver's qualities?

That didn't age well

How so? Turned out exactly as I said.

Here's the full quote to help with your selective reading issue

Hamilton fans on suicide watch already after one P2 in the first qualy of the season.

Where's the confidence in your star driver's qualities? And more importantly the confidence in the 7 time world championship domination team to improve the car even further.

Merc will be back to winning in no time. Possibly today already as they have the upper hand with strategy and two drivers in the mix.

[Stu]

Does anyone else feel this 2021 regulation change is suspiciously damaging to the low rake cars?

Nobody serious.

I do not believe it is a coincidence that FIA finally achieved at this time, what they want, which is to handicap Mercedes.

You're free to believe what you want but you're wrong.

FIA have a technical department at their disposal, and they had many years to figure how to slow Mercedes, and couldn't. They banned team radio. They limited oil burning. They changed to wider cars. They changed the front wings. Banned FRIC. Banned the DAS. Banned quali-modes. Banned blown spokes. All sorts of monkey business which did not work. Yet this last change, at this time... hit like a master stroke! With their poor record of slowing the cars, I don't believe that the 2021 rules were deduced entirely by the FIA. Conspiracy was definitely at play.

No they don't. Tombazis is head of FIA single seater matters, and they have a small safety department. These 2021 rules were a result of research by FOM (distinct and separate from the FIA) with the cooperation of all the teams hacking up their cars, running CFD and reporting back. FOM have a really small technical department, led by Brawn, Symonds, Somerville & Wilson with 10-15 engineers and CAD surfacers under them. There's a reason the image released of the 2021 draft was a Sauber not the 2017 Manor FOM used for their studies.

Either someone inside the FIA was very good at finding the needle in the aerodynamic haystack; kicking Mercedes in the left nut - cutting back the edge of the floor through some sort of devil-worshiping work in the windtunnel. Or they got some sort of 3D scan of the W10/W11 floor.

Mercedes were involved in the drafting of these changes.


This is all before the first race of the season, which Mercedes might well yet win, they may have lost their 1s/lap advantage but they're still up the pointy end of the grid. You're letting your bias toward Mercedes lead you to some pretty wild and conspiratorial conclusions.

I think that PZ has picked up on the narrative that is being pushed by certain members of the Merc/AMG squad, BUT...
What nobody seems to have picked up on is the other component change in the regs; Merc no longer have DAS. They always claimed that it was an almost inconsequential part of the package, yet when it was removed from the car (only for Abu Dhabi, AFAIK), the Red Bull was suddenly so close that it took a win...

[El Scorchio]

Yes, I was a bit unfair with the "messed up" part, they are still very competitive and I still think it is realistic that Hamilton can grab the title (Merc can also win the constructors championship). I meant only to say they made mistakes and didn't come up with the best possible aero.
I don't think thou that they would drop their low rake concept, they would just spend resources to make it work. This is not the first time that they come up with a "diva car", and every time they stuck with the low rake and got better.
Sometimes the rules just doesn't fit you immediately, you get outdeveloped (let's face it, Red Bull was getting closer already last season) and have to deal with it.

Well, they might have come up with the best possible aero that the rules permit them to from what their 2020 car was. Who knows!

This is why it’s such a tricky thing to quantify. Again I really don’t think it’s as simple this year as ‘team A outdeveloped team B’ because they didn’t start with the same base product to develop from. They may have actually done a better job on evolving 2020 but if their optimum solution just isn’t as fast as high rake then that’s just what it will come down to. If it turned out that low rake suited the new regs better and Mercedes were stronger, you couldn’t say they outdeveloped Red Bull. It could have just been impossible to develop as good a package from high rake as from low rake.

However, I think it’s going to make a fascinating season to see what if anything they can claw back!

The evidence is they didn't come up already optimal (the car is already better than during testing).
I understand your point of view that it is somewhat "easier" to develop a high rake car for the 2021 rules and, as a consequence, even if Mercedes had done an amazing job, Red Bull could do less and still come up ahead. I agree that these rules suit high rake cars better (the evidence says so), but Red Bull was only able to come up with a better car this year after seasons of enormous development effort. They had already gotten much closer last year, so they pulling ahead in 2021 feels almost like a continuation.

And yeah, fascinating season. Mercedes already showing on the first race they can win. I expect this ends the "conspiracy against Mercedes" theory, let's just be happy to have an exciting championship! [-o<

Yup absolutely- we shouldn't do down Red Bull and all the other teams' work on the new regs. If they hadn't done a great job then- even with whatever issues they are currently finding- Mercedes would still be out in front. It's not their fault that (at least for now, if not for the whole season) they have found a solution which allows them to be faster.

Going to be so interesting what the teams bring to Imola.

[LM10]

Does anyone else feel this 2021 regulation change is suspiciously damaging to the low rake cars?

Nobody serious.

I do not believe it is a coincidence that FIA finally achieved at this time, what they want, which is to handicap Mercedes.

You're free to believe what you want but you're wrong.

FIA have a technical department at their disposal, and they had many years to figure how to slow Mercedes, and couldn't. They banned team radio. They limited oil burning. They changed to wider cars. They changed the front wings. Banned FRIC. Banned the DAS. Banned quali-modes. Banned blown spokes. All sorts of monkey business which did not work. Yet this last change, at this time... hit like a master stroke! With their poor record of slowing the cars, I don't believe that the 2021 rules were deduced entirely by the FIA. Conspiracy was definitely at play.

No they don't. Tombazis is head of FIA single seater matters, and they have a small safety department. These 2021 rules were a result of research by FOM (distinct and separate from the FIA) with the cooperation of all the teams hacking up their cars, running CFD and reporting back. FOM have a really small technical department, led by Brawn, Symonds, Somerville & Wilson with 10-15 engineers and CAD surfacers under them. There's a reason the image released of the 2021 draft was a Sauber not the 2017 Manor FOM used for their studies.

Either someone inside the FIA was very good at finding the needle in the aerodynamic haystack; kicking Mercedes in the left nut - cutting back the edge of the floor through some sort of devil-worshiping work in the windtunnel. Or they got some sort of 3D scan of the W10/W11 floor.

Mercedes were involved in the drafting of these changes.


This is all before the first race of the season, which Mercedes might well yet win, they may have lost their 1s/lap advantage but they're still up the pointy end of the grid. You're letting your bias toward Mercedes lead you to some pretty wild and conspiratorial conclusions.

I think that PZ has picked up on the narrative that is being pushed by certain members of the Merc/AMG squad, BUT...
What nobody seems to have picked up on is the other component change in the regs; Merc no longer have DAS. They always claimed that it was an almost inconsequential part of the package, yet when it was removed from the car (only for Abu Dhabi, AFAIK), the Red Bull was suddenly so close that it took a win...

Mercedes removed DAS in a couple of races already before Abu Dhabi.

[DiogoBrand]

OMG guys the FIA just can't stop trying to hinder Mercedes, I mean, after letting them win only 14 titles back to back, now they've hindered Mercedes so much that they can only win 1-3 instead of 1-2 every race.
Such a conspiracy!

[PlatinumZealot]

What was even more frustrating for Szafnauer was the fact the aero changes were not voted through in the official way.

If they had been subject to the unanimous route or even the new majority vote which Formula 1 now uses to agree regulation changes, they would have fallen through either way because three teams said no.

“There was never a vote, there was an indicative vote,” Szafnauer explained.

“So that was just at the technical under-committee that all the technical directors had to have an indicative vote, and three teams voted against it.

“You’ve got to remember only two teams have low-rake concept. So even one of the high-rake teams voted against it. So nowhere near unanimity and it wouldn’t have even passed on the eight out of 10 rule because we voted against.”