2022 pecking order speculation

[raymondu999]

From the top 3 (Merc, Redbull and Ferrari), Ferrari is the one that will get more wind-tunnel time, plus, has literally nothing to gain in 2021.. Could be a "surprise" for 2022

Yeah of course. But that same surprise could right now be said of any team in the current grid, hence the thread! so much fun speculating in complete darkness

[MKlaus]

this is a good chance for experts to stake claims about which concept (hgh rake, low rake, longer wheel base, shorter wheel base etc..) is going to be hurt with these regulations and to support which team have these new 2022 regulations have been brought.
we often hear armchair experts claiming that these regulations were made to hurt so and so team, when racing starts and they confidently say they knew it already.
so it would be great to demonstrate their skills now, before we see where things stand in 2022.

[hUirEYExbN]

this is a good chance for experts to stake claims about which concept (hgh rake, low rake, longer wheel base, shorter wheel base etc..) is going to be hurt with these regulations and to support which team have these new 2022 regulations have been brought.
we often hear armchair experts claiming that these regulations were made to hurt so and so team, when racing starts and they confidently say they knew it already.
so it would be great to demonstrate their skills now, before we see where things stand in 2022.

I like what you say and would love to hear some actually decent ideas. Until then....

The new aero regulations are more restrictive than ever. Red Bull will suffer because of that. I think Ferrari could well pull a surprise, less innovation may do them good. Merc will likely come out on equal top with Ferrari simply because they're a solid team and that talent won't suddenly vanish.

All the engines will be roughly on a level footing as the technology isn't going to be heavily changed and they all understand what they're doing now. Except Renault who will drop the ball again.

There you go, my "expert" opinion that has no value and is vague and not too outlandish enough to maybe work out

[LM10]

this is a good chance for experts to stake claims about which concept (hgh rake, low rake, longer wheel base, shorter wheel base etc..) is going to be hurt with these regulations and to support which team have these new 2022 regulations have been brought.
we often hear armchair experts claiming that these regulations were made to hurt so and so team, when racing starts and they confidently say they knew it already.
so it would be great to demonstrate their skills now, before we see where things stand in 2022.

I like what you say and would love to hear some actually decent ideas. Until then....

The new aero regulations are more restrictive than ever. Red Bull will suffer because of that. I think Ferrari could well pull a surprise, less innovation may do them good. Merc will likely come out on equal top with Ferrari simply because they're a solid team and that talent won't suddenly vanish.

All the engines will be roughly on a level footing as the technology isn't going to be heavily changed and they all understand what they're doing now. Except Renault who will drop the ball again.

There you go, my "expert" opinion that has no value and is vague and not too outlandish enough to maybe work out

Can’t remember RedBull being any more innovative than others in the hybrid era. They rather take an idea and improve it or interpret it in their own (extreme) way.
Ferrari and Mercedes have overall been more innovative. Can’t see how less scope of innovation should help Ferrari or anyone at all.

[Jambier]

You are right I forgot that Ferrari has everything to prove to build a great car with little money.

AT and Aston can do it for sure we know that.

At the end of the day, only three teams will have to reduce their budget isn’t it?

Is it only 3? I honestly don’t know. Renault surely too no?

I remember Abiteboul saying loudly that they will need to... increase their budget to reach budget cap
So not sure where they are, I assume under it

[Jambier]

For 2021, the cap will be set at $145m. That will reduce to $140m in 2022 and $135m from 2023 onwards.

I have not read anywhere that Ferrari, RB and Merc are basically firing half of their employees.
I'm really wondering how they are planning to respect the cap

[proteus]

For 2021, the cap will be set at $145m. That will reduce to $140m in 2022 and $135m from 2023 onwards.

I have not read anywhere that Ferrari, RB and Merc are basically firing half of their employees.
I'm really wondering how they are planning to respect the cap

I am firmly convinced cost cap is a dream. Who will know if a team makes a development behind its racing organisation? They can pour in hundreds of millions into R&D and then simply aply the design into their next car. The biggest losers will be those who will be following the rules - or who simply wont have the cash to cheat this system.

[Baulz]

For 2021, the cap will be set at $145m. That will reduce to $140m in 2022 and $135m from 2023 onwards.

I have not read anywhere that Ferrari, RB and Merc are basically firing half of their employees.
I'm really wondering how they are planning to respect the cap

Ferrari have moved some staff to Haas and I believe Merc have moved some to Aston. I do question what work they are doing for the other teams and if anything finds it's way back to Ferrari/Merc.

[Zynerji]

For 2021, the cap will be set at $145m. That will reduce to $140m in 2022 and $135m from 2023 onwards.

I have not read anywhere that Ferrari, RB and Merc are basically firing half of their employees.
I'm really wondering how they are planning to respect the cap

I am firmly convinced cost cap is a dream. Who will know if a team makes a development behind its racing organisation? They can pour in hundreds of millions into R&D and then simply aply the design into their next car. The biggest losers will be those who will be following the rules - or who simply wont have the cash to cheat this system.

This is why they should have an open-source, must share car design.

[Just_a_fan]

May as well have a spec car. If I have all of your IP and you have mine, we'll end up at the same point fairly quickly one way or another. Not that it is a bad thing, however, as it does get rid of the "our chassis is better than yours, you only win because of X component" type arguments.

[dans79]

May as well have a spec car. If I have all of your IP and you have mine, we'll end up at the same point fairly quickly one way or another.

I personally hate it, and will fight it the best a fan can!

[Just_a_fan]

May as well have a spec car. If I have all of your IP and you have mine, we'll end up at the same point fairly quickly one way or another.

I personally hate it, and will fight it the best a fan can!

Unless you're in a position to sign a many-millions-a-year advertising deal or some such thing with Liberty, I fear your voice will not be heard, dans79. Money drives the decisions and there aren't enough fans of "pure" F1 to scare the money men.

[MKlaus]

For 2021, the cap will be set at $145m. That will reduce to $140m in 2022 and $135m from 2023 onwards.

I have not read anywhere that Ferrari, RB and Merc are basically firing half of their employees.
I'm really wondering how they are planning to respect the cap

they can easily move the excess headcount into one of the parent organizations to cover their costs and have them do what they do. not a big deal.

[DChemTech]

For 2021, the cap will be set at $145m. That will reduce to $140m in 2022 and $135m from 2023 onwards.

I have not read anywhere that Ferrari, RB and Merc are basically firing half of their employees.
I'm really wondering how they are planning to respect the cap

they can easily move the excess headcount into one of the parent organizations to cover their costs and have them do what they do. not a big deal.

Of course they can, but that doesn't mean they will.
Hopefully we can count on a bit sportsmanship from the teams in that sense; in contrast to DAS and maybe or maybe not in contrast to whatever Ferrari did with their engine, outsourcing development in such a way would be a clear violation of the rules.

Still, if teams decide to obscure some of their development in some way and they get caught (which sooner or later will happen, if they cheat), it should be penalized with something that makes Ron Dennis' 100 million look like a kindergarten punishment.

[Just_a_fan]

Still, if teams decide to obscure some of their development in some way and they get caught (which sooner or later will happen, if they cheat), it should be penalized with something that makes Ron Dennis' 100 million look like a kindergarten punishment.

Simply excluding them from the results for the year would have a big impact on most teams - points are money and having all of their points removed for the season would be a big blow, even for the big three. Not $100m big, admittedly.