2022 pecking order speculation

[Jambier]

That's why I don't know how Mercedes or Ferrari will do this year

Mercedes and RB will have to push for 2021 championship and prepare 2022. And reduce half their employee?

It could be good to have a live dashboard on "how much each team has spend for now" evolving each month

[Herr_Koos]

Still, if teams decide to obscure some of their development in some way and they get caught (which sooner or later will happen, if they cheat), it should be penalized with something that makes Ron Dennis' 100 million look like a kindergarten punishment.

Simply excluding them from the results for the year would have a big impact on most teams - points are money and having all of their points removed for the season would be a big blow, even for the big three. Not $100m big, admittedly.

McLaren were fined and excluded from the standings in 2007. Only the drivers got to keep their points.

[nzjrs]

Still, if teams decide to obscure some of their development in some way and they get caught (which sooner or later will happen, if they cheat), it should be penalized with something that makes Ron Dennis' 100 million look like a kindergarten punishment.

Simply excluding them from the results for the year would have a big impact on most teams - points are money and having all of their points removed for the season would be a big blow, even for the big three. Not $100m big, admittedly.

Didn't they already say something like the statute of limitations for budget cap infractions is at least 5 years? I think that is a pretty good deterrence considering staff movement and whistleblower laws.

[Just_a_fan]

Still, if teams decide to obscure some of their development in some way and they get caught (which sooner or later will happen, if they cheat), it should be penalized with something that makes Ron Dennis' 100 million look like a kindergarten punishment.

Simply excluding them from the results for the year would have a big impact on most teams - points are money and having all of their points removed for the season would be a big blow, even for the big three. Not $100m big, admittedly.

McLaren were fined and excluded from the standings in 2007. Only the drivers got to keep their points.

Indeed so. The scale of the punishment was actually down to the sheer hatred that Max Mosley had for Ron Dennis. Max was quoted as saying the fine was $5m for breaking the rules and "$95m for Ron being a twat".

The original penalty was proposed to be a two year ban. That, of course, would have effectively killed McLaren as an F1 team.

[Herr_Koos]

Simply excluding them from the results for the year would have a big impact on most teams - points are money and having all of their points removed for the season would be a big blow, even for the big three. Not $100m big, admittedly.

McLaren were fined and excluded from the standings in 2007. Only the drivers got to keep their points.

Indeed so. The scale of the punishment was actually down to the sheer hatred that Max Mosley had for Ron Dennis. Max was quoted as saying the fine was $5m for breaking the rules and "$95m for Ron being a twat".

The original penalty was proposed to be a two year ban. That, of course, would have effectively killed McLaren as an F1 team.

Let's hope the current leadership is somewhat more impartial in dispensing justice.

[zeph]

I surprise myself feeling sorry for Alfa Romeo with no votes... heck, even Williams got a vote, and Haas got two...

[Bill]

what the point of making speculations about 2022 now 2021 is not yet settled. the last race was low to medium downforce but the majority of tracks are medium to high downforce so they is still uncertainties.Merc fans think its going to be business as usual even though Max was driving a wounded car. i think these year Rbr are going to give them a bloody nose

[Just_a_fan]

Merc fans think its going to be business as usual even though Max was driving a wounded car. i think these year Rbr are going to give them a bloody nose

Maybe it's because Mercedes gave RBR a bloody nose even though Lewis was driving a wounded car in the first race.

We'll see either way over the next few races. It could be a season where the high ground swings back and forth between Mercedes and RBR. Which should make for an interesting season.

[MKlaus]

what the point of making speculations about 2022 now 2021 is not yet settled. the last race was low to medium downforce but the majority of tracks are medium to high downforce so they is still uncertainties.Merc fans think its going to be business as usual even though Max was driving a wounded car. i think these year Rbr are going to give them a bloody nose

if you don't see a point in making speculations about 2022, you have a choice to ignore this thread! those who are interested and see a point in doing so, would engage. 2021 pecking order speculation thread is there to talk about max's wounded car and what he and red bull can do. leave this thread for 2022 predictions please.

[f1316]

Re cost cap: do we actually know that all the teams are capable of spending $140m? It’s still not ‘even’ if a handful of teams are spending 80-100m.

I get the scepticism with Ferrari - for example they didn’t anticipate either the 2009 or 2014 regulation changes well - but the most recent major change, 2017, saw their biggest jump in competitiveness in years. Add to that less focus on 2021 than the other ‘big two’, almost certainly more wind tunnel/CFD time (I’m kinda surprised they’re so keen to be 3rd this year - might be more strategic to be lower), and I’d suggest they have a good shot.

The X factor with them (and everyone else) is the PU. The chassis regs are more restrictive so the PU will be a big differentiator and the PUs are locked after the start of the 2022. Will Ferrari go big and risk messing it up? High risk, high reward. Likewise for the Renault. I don’t believe the RB engine will receive any upgrades after this year and you’d imagine Mercedes will iterate on the solid base they have, but it may well all come down to engines.

Presuming all the engines - and therefore the cars - are very close, let’s say top 10 are covered by half a second, then the driver also becomes a bigger part of the package. We regularly see one driver two, three, four tenths ahead of their teammate and that could be enough for several places on the grid. We don’t know all the lineups yet but, again, I would guess that Ferrari’s will be among the strongest. A Max/Russell Mercedes combo (Zack Brown’s speculation) might also be pretty competitive!

[zeph]

I get the scepticism with Ferrari - for example they didn’t anticipate either the 2009 or 2014 regulation changes well - but the most recent major change, 2017, saw their biggest jump in competitiveness in years.

Wasn’t that because of the oil burning though? And as soon as that trick was removed their competitiveness waned?

[f1316]

I mean, there’s no evidence that they were oil burning at all.

But in any case, absolutely not: Ferrari didn’t have nearly as much power as Mercedes in 2017 and were the fastest car at places like Monaco and Hungary - this was because of the strength of their chassis. The other teams up and down the pit lane have since copied plenty of elements that Ferrari pioneered in 2017, most notably the pushed back sidepod openings/mid wing.

It fits the British press’s narrative wonderfully that Ferrari - especially the current very Italian configuration - is incapable of winning or innovating without cheating but it’s absolutely not true. The 2017 and 2018 *cars* were extremely strong, regardless of the PU.

[LM10]

I get the scepticism with Ferrari - for example they didn’t anticipate either the 2009 or 2014 regulation changes well - but the most recent major change, 2017, saw their biggest jump in competitiveness in years.

Wasn’t that because of the oil burning though? And as soon as that trick was removed their competitiveness waned?

No, it absolutely wasn’t. In fact, a major reason for Ferrari to lose plenty of races was significant lack of power compared to Mercedes. Other than that, the SF70H was a masterpiece.

[raymondu999]

Agreed. The 2017 ferrari was a great (stronger than Merc?) car in the twisty tracks. Singapore, Hungary, Monaco. Come Monza, Spa, power tracks, the Merc was clearly superior. Whether due to engine or aero or chassis kr whatever— now that’s a whole different round of speculation

[f1316]

Despite the classic f1technical downvote (above), here’s a recent article from therace that discusses exactly this point:

https://the-race.com/formula-1/mark-hug ... -mercedes/