After a reasonably quiet first half of the race, two incidents due to tyre wear mixed things up considerably, resulting in Sergio Perez taking the win at Azerbaijan, joined on the podium by Sebastian Vettel and Pierre Gasly.
I do wonder if McLaren might just be head-to-tail with Red Bull around Baku, or perhaps even faster. This race has never really been one that favours Red Bull, and McLaren do look like they are quite slippery. On top of that, this is a circuit that Ricciardo seem to do quite well at. Bar 2017, when he crashed out, he has yet to be out-qualified by his teammate here. And he does have a victory in 2017 after the Vettel/Hamilton incident(s) which saw both out of a podium finish.
So I might just reckon a Mercedes 1-2 with a McLaren 3rd. Very possibly Ricciardo. Alpine and Ferrari might fight for the scraps mid-bottom top 10 with Aston Martin & Gasly fighting for places just outside of top 10.
This is a race which also Perez likes. Rear-limited circuit, right up his street. And with his 'five-races-to-get-up-to-speed' done, he should be reasonably competitive. However, it does come at a circuit where Red Bull might fall slightly into the midfield more so than they are used to. So where Verstappen might fight for a podium, Perez might find himself fighting a McLaren and both of the Alpines and Ferrari, who I don't think will be that far off the others infront.
Mercedes will be eager to get a win here, and I'm expecting a somewhat comfortable 1-2, bar any mistakes.
I expect both RedBull AND Ferrari to be competitive. There is a good chance LeClerc gets another chance for P1, aswell ass Sainz whom actually would have 'stolen' P1 from LeClerc had he not careered his car into the wall and caused a red flag. It's not unlikely that Mclaren, whom have been competitive all year through, will also be in a favourable position.
"Explain the ending to F1 in football terms"
"Hamilton was beating Verstappen 7-0, then the ref decided F%$& rules, next goal wins
while also sending off 4 Hamilton players to make it more interesting"
I think weβll see some combination of Mercedes/RB in the first two rows and McLaren/Ferrari after in qualifying. Iβm a little concerned about how that Ferrari PU is going deal with that straight though.
All 4 drivers from Merc/RB are great around this track so I hope to see a good battle.
While Ricciardo has won here before, he also won at Monaco and we see what happened there. Maybe the time in the simulator has helped him sort out some issues but another street track isnβt a confidence builder IMO. Interested to see how he recovers.
Iβm interested to see how the Aston/AT/Alpine group does as well. This track seems like it would be decent fit for them especially Gasly and AT. Could see another top 5-7 finish for him depending on how things go.
Mercedes will be eager to get a win here, and I'm expecting a somewhat comfortable 1-2, bar any mistakes.
Nice write-up. I agree with your assessment re: who will be competitive in Baku.
Merc are bringing their first major upgrade of the year per Rob Smedley.
Would crack me up if it was a flexi wing.
Toto did say they have margin to soften their RW end plates and still adhere to the forthcoming tests (I'm guessing there was a bit of puffery there, but that's immediately what I thought of when I read your comment).
Whilst the tension between Lewis and Max has been completely manufactured by the press, the same cannot be said for the crossing of swords between Toto Wolff, Christian Horner and Dr Helmut Marko. Horner and Marko are trying to get as much mileage as possible with pinching Mercedes engineers, and Toto continues to beat the flexi-wing drum. The on-track battle is on a gentle simmer, the off-track drama is on a full boil.
We'll see in Baku who gets the last laugh and who's bluffing with the flexi-wings. Will Red Bull run theirs? Will Mercedes protest? Or will Mercedes have their own version?
The on-track battle is on a gentle simmer, the off-track drama is on a full boil.
We'll see in Baku who gets the last laugh and who's bluffing with the flexi-wings. Will Red Bull run theirs? Will Mercedes protest? Or will Mercedes have their own version?
Itβs going to be one of the more fascinating weekends I can remember. Potentially even spicier than the Racing Point saga from last year.
So, predictions? I think MB won't protest because the Ross Brawn statement existence was not accidental - the zeitgeist is that it won't be upheld and they won't want to take it to ICA either.
So, predictions? I think MB won't protest because the Ross Brawn statement existence was not accidental - the zeitgeist is that it won't be upheld and they won't want to take it to ICA either.
Hard to say, but I feel like it's worth pointing out that Ross Brawn is with FOM, not the FIA.
As far as I'm aware, it's a big no-no if the promotion arm meddles in the rule-making. I believe that when Aston was threatening litigation earlier this season, one of the reasons was because they were investigating impropriety regarding whether FOM influenced the '21 regulation changes.
So, predictions? I think MB won't protest because the Ross Brawn statement existence was not accidental - the zeitgeist is that it won't be upheld and they won't want to take it to ICA either.
Hard to say, but I feel like it's worth pointing out that Ross Brawn is with FOM, not the FIA.
As far as I'm aware, it's a big no-no if the promotion arm meddles in the rule-making. I believe that when Aston was threatening litigation earlier this season, one of the reasons was because they were investigating impropriety regarding whether FOM influenced the '21 regulation changes.
Notice how the Aston Martin litigation threat has quietly disappeared. I wonder what deal was made to-- 18 LANCE STROLL!
I cannot see the same happening in the flexi-wing fight between Mercedes and Red Bull, especially if Red Bull win in Baku this weekend. There's a championship on the line and they'll fight it out to gain an advantage wherever possible.
So, predictions? I think MB won't protest because the Ross Brawn statement existence was not accidental - the zeitgeist is that it won't be upheld and they won't want to take it to ICA either.
The protest has always been about destabilizing RedBull mentally and anything else is a Bonus.