Will Covid 19 impact 2022 season?

[adrianjordan]

'200000 daily cases imminent in the UK' - says one newspaper

The new health secretary Sajid Javid agreed, saying that cases could reach 100,000 cases a day this summer after the remaining coronavirus restrictions are eased in two weeks.

Almost everything is allowed in the UK again. The numbers are rising fast. Why is there no action to reduce the infections?

Because number of infections doesn't matter on its own. What matters is if people require medical intervention. Vaccination has been shown to massively reduce the severity of the infection meaning many fewer people need to go to hospital. As the UK has some of the best vaccination numbers in the world, there is now massive pressure to open up and fully restart the economy.

See the numbers in my posts above, wider community transmission will have a massive impact on the NHS and more worryingly, increases the risk of a new, vaccine resistant, variant emerging in the UK.

[Big Tea]

The new health secretary Sajid Javid agreed, saying that cases could reach 100,000 cases a day this summer after the remaining coronavirus restrictions are eased in two weeks.

Almost everything is allowed in the UK again. The numbers are rising fast. Why is there no action to reduce the infections?

Because number of infections doesn't matter on its own. What matters is if people require medical intervention. Vaccination has been shown to massively reduce the severity of the infection meaning many fewer people need to go to hospital. As the UK has some of the best vaccination numbers in the world, there is now massive pressure to open up and fully restart the economy.

See the numbers in my posts above, wider community transmission will have a massive impact on the NHS and more worryingly, increases the risk of a new, vaccine resistant, variant emerging in the UK.

Yip, a 'one in a million chance' is just that. So 10 million people getting it is 10 'one in a million chances' of hitting a vaccine resistant strain'

[Just_a_fan]

The new health secretary Sajid Javid agreed, saying that cases could reach 100,000 cases a day this summer after the remaining coronavirus restrictions are eased in two weeks.

Almost everything is allowed in the UK again. The numbers are rising fast. Why is there no action to reduce the infections?

Because number of infections doesn't matter on its own. What matters is if people require medical intervention. Vaccination has been shown to massively reduce the severity of the infection meaning many fewer people need to go to hospital. As the UK has some of the best vaccination numbers in the world, there is now massive pressure to open up and fully restart the economy.

See the numbers in my posts above, wider community transmission will have a massive impact on the NHS and more worryingly, increases the risk of a new, vaccine resistant, variant emerging in the UK.

I'm not belittling the issues faced by the NHS, only stating why I think the Govt feels they can move in the direction they are doing. I think they're seeing numbers that can be dealt with - maybe senior people in the NHS are telling them this, I don't know. Or maybe there is now sufficient political acceptance of deaths going forward. A kind of "you wanted to be unrestrained, here's the consequences of that" type of approach. With the current bunch in Govt, who knows what they're thinking? I bet they don't half of the time.

As for new variants, I'm no expert - I'm barely even a layman when it comes to these things! - but isn't there the general principle that the new variants are becoming more transmissible but less deadly as they each emerge? SO eventually we'll end up with something that does the rounds in days but very few are badly affected. Or is that wishful thinking on the part of some commentators?

[henry]

Because number of infections doesn't matter on its own. What matters is if people require medical intervention. Vaccination has been shown to massively reduce the severity of the infection meaning many fewer people need to go to hospital. As the UK has some of the best vaccination numbers in the world, there is now massive pressure to open up and fully restart the economy.

See the numbers in my posts above, wider community transmission will have a massive impact on the NHS and more worryingly, increases the risk of a new, vaccine resistant, variant emerging in the UK.

I'm not belittling the issues faced by the NHS, only stating why I think the Govt feels they can move in the direction they are doing. I think they're seeing numbers that can be dealt with - maybe senior people in the NHS are telling them this, I don't know. Or maybe there is now sufficient political acceptance of deaths going forward. A kind of "you wanted to be unrestrained, here's the consequences of that" type of approach. With the current bunch in Govt, who knows what they're thinking? I bet they don't half of the time.

As for new variants, I'm no expert - I'm barely even a layman when it comes to these things! - but isn't there the general principle that the new variants are becoming more transmissible but less deadly as they each emerge? SO eventually we'll end up with something that does the rounds in days but very few are badly affected. Or is that wishful thinking on the part of some commentators?

The government is playing some of its cards close to its chest. The health secretary says maybe 100,000 cases a day at some point but they are specifically not saying what level of hospitalisations or deaths they think are acceptable, or long Covid predictions. They’re silent on long Covid even though it’s affecting younger people, particularly women. The very people for whom the next few weeks will be most dangerous.

The variants that have come along and gained prevalence have been more infectious and at least as virulent. It is probably about twice as infectious as the original and has roughly half the population available to infect (unvaccinated and those for whom the vaccine is ineffective). So we’ll see the sort of rise in infections we saw at the beginning of the pandemic. As vaccinations progress this vulnerable cohort will decrease, the government is gambling on the effect of this. I’d like them to be clearer on what their win criteria are.

[nzjrs]

See the numbers in my posts above, wider community transmission will have a massive impact on the NHS and more worryingly, increases the risk of a new, vaccine resistant, variant emerging in the UK.

I'm not belittling the issues faced by the NHS, only stating why I think the Govt feels they can move in the direction they are doing. I think they're seeing numbers that can be dealt with - maybe senior people in the NHS are telling them this, I don't know. Or maybe there is now sufficient political acceptance of deaths going forward. A kind of "you wanted to be unrestrained, here's the consequences of that" type of approach. With the current bunch in Govt, who knows what they're thinking? I bet they don't half of the time.

As for new variants, I'm no expert - I'm barely even a layman when it comes to these things! - but isn't there the general principle that the new variants are becoming more transmissible but less deadly as they each emerge? SO eventually we'll end up with something that does the rounds in days but very few are badly affected. Or is that wishful thinking on the part of some commentators?

The government is playing some of its cards close to its chest. The health secretary says maybe 100,000 cases a day at some point but they are specifically not saying what level of hospitalisations or deaths they think are acceptable, or long Covid predictions. They’re silent on long Covid even though it’s affecting younger people, particularly women. The very people for whom the next few weeks will be most dangerous.

The variants that have come along and gained prevalence have been more infectious and at least as virulent. It is probably about twice as infectious as the original and has roughly half the population available to infect (unvaccinated and those for whom the vaccine is ineffective). So we’ll see the sort of rise in infections we saw at the beginning of the pandemic. As vaccinations progress this vulnerable cohort will decrease, the government is gambling on the effect of this. I’d like them to be clearer on what their win criteria are.

More or less agree with this.

One thing I didn't appreciate before moving to the UK is how important the summer holiday (in Europe) is for UK. The ruling elite won't want to miss them for another year, and the general population will not consent to lockdowns over summer, especially considering most adults will have been vaccinated by the time. In short, I think the UK government is out of options.

[Just_a_fan]

The government is playing some of its cards close to its chest.

I think they have only one card and it's full view on the table in front of them - it's the vaccination programme. They're gambling on the vaccination programme being sufficient to protect enough people for long enough that they can roll out boosters with new variants incorporated in the vaccine recipe.

I think they're planning to deal with Covid as they do seasonal 'flu - offer annual "updated" jabs to those most likely to be badly affected and trust that the rest of the population will be ok.

If their gamble works, we're looking good. If not, it's going to be a long 2021-22 winter.

[henry]

The government is playing some of its cards close to its chest.

I think they have only one card and it's full view on the table in front of them - it's the vaccination programme. They're gambling on the vaccination programme being sufficient to protect enough people for long enough that they can roll out boosters with new variants incorporated in the vaccine recipe.

I think they're planning to deal with Covid as they do seasonal 'flu - offer annual "updated" jabs to those most likely to be badly affected and trust that the rest of the population will be ok.

If their gamble works, we're looking good. If not, it's going to be a long 2021-22 winter.

They definitely intend to do as you say. But it’s not the winter that concerns me it’s the summer.

Since the beginning of the year I have maintained a set of ratios on the high level Covid data.
I record: cases reported,
proportion of that number of hospital admissions 10 days later,
proportion of the case number that are in MV beds 12 days later
proportion of fatalities 21 days later.

The time intervals roughly match the distance between peaks in earlier data.

Right now these ratios are, 3.3%, 2.8%, 0.23%

Roughly speaking at those rates today’s reported cases (28000) will potentially convert to 920 hospital admissions and 780 MV beds in use in 10 and 13 days time and 64 fatalities in 3 weeks time. That daily fatality rate is higher than a bad year of Flu. These rates are trending down slowly. So the actual numbers will be slightly lower.

As a comparison last January, before Covid, Flu admissions ran at around 500 to 1000 per Week. And intensive care beds one tenth of that number.

Vaccinations and infections will push us down towards herd immunity and reduce the at risk population. But I suspect a very large number of people will fall ill before then.

So the gambling question is what level of cases, hospitalisations and deaths will cause the government to go to plan B?

On a final note. Chris Witty, Chief Medical Officer, has just told a Local Government meeting that Long Covid cases are rising and it’s a non-trivial problem.

What the government will do in the autumn seems quite sensible. Time will judge whether what they are doing now is.

[Wouter]

GP Zandvoort in danger? Most likely. It will not take place without full stands.

Measures (95% certainty) that will be announced by the Prime Minister this evening at 19:00h according to RTL news:
- Testing for Access stops for festivals, catering and discotheques, now keep 1.5 meters away everywhere.
- 1000 people at outdoor events, 500 indoors. Exact numbers are still being discussed.
- Catering establishments close at 00:00.

[TNTHead]

GP Zandvoort in danger? Most likely. It will not take place without full stands.

Measures (95% certainty) that will be announced by the Prime Minister this evening at 19:00h according to RTL news:
- Testing for Access stops for festivals, catering and discotheques, now keep 1.5 meters away everywhere.
- 1000 people at outdoor events, 500 indoors. Exact numbers are still being discussed.
- Catering establishments close at 00:00.

If you cut out the Testing for Acces positive test you'll reduce for a large amount probably. It seems that the most recent surge in The Netherlands was due to superspreading events at discotheques. So it's too early to say GP Zandvoort is on the brink of cancellation. Hopefully the governement is well aware of the difference between indoor and outdoor events (which is a still ongoing debate over here, unfortunately).

[DChemTech]

GP Zandvoort in danger? Most likely. It will not take place without full stands.

Measures (95% certainty) that will be announced by the Prime Minister this evening at 19:00h according to RTL news:
- Testing for Access stops for festivals, catering and discotheques, now keep 1.5 meters away everywhere.
- 1000 people at outdoor events, 500 indoors. Exact numbers are still being discussed.
- Catering establishments close at 00:00.

Yes, our government seems to have massively dropped the ball on this one (while it should not really come as a surprise that when one suddenly opens facilities that are mainly visited by a target audience that is not yet/half vaccinated, and allow them to ditch all regulations on the basis of having passed a test that is known for not being extremely reliable, --- hits the fan...)

Let's hope things are back under control by the time of the GP, and that people at the government do realize that outdoor events with some distancing are a quite different case than sweaty, poorly ventilated clubs with people stacked in elbow-licking distance.

(add-on: I am a bit fed up with the news channels leaking the new measures beforehand... especially since they have been off a few times, which caused problems with barbers already starting to make appointments based on the leaked info, and later being told they couldn't open up at the leaked date yet. Can't these people just show a bit of restraint? That you have certain info, doesn't mean you need to immediately throw it in the open... is it that hard to wait, especially if the official announcement is on the same day....)

[Wouter]

GP Zandvoort in danger? Most likely. It will not take place without full stands.

Measures (95% certainty) that will be announced by the Prime Minister this evening at 19:00h according to RTL news:
- Testing for Access stops for festivals, catering and discotheques, now keep 1.5 meters away everywhere.
- 1000 people at outdoor events, 500 indoors. Exact numbers are still being discussed.
- Catering establishments close at 00:00.

If you cut out the Testing for Acces positive test you'll reduce for a large amount probably.
It seems that the most recent surge in The Netherlands was due to superspreading events at discotheques. So it's too early to say GP Zandvoort is on the brink of cancellation. Hopefully the governement is well aware of the difference between indoor and outdoor events (which is a still ongoing debate over here, unfortunately).

Last Monday to Thursday there was almost no testing for tickets.
Nevertheless, the number of positives has increased from
Monday -1519
Tuesday - 2209
Wednesday - 3646
Thursday - 5431
Friday - 7000.

Last Tuesday it was only 538.

[Wouter]

About the Dutch GP in Zandvoort.

The number of positive corona tests increased sevenfold last week compared to the week before. The outgoing cabinet has therefore decided to introduce new measures to slow down this "rapid spread", outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte and outgoing Minister Hugo de Jonge (Public Health) announced on Friday.

A number of measures have been announced that will apply until 13 August.
For example, clubs and discos will close completely again and the catering industry has to close its doors
from midnight to 6.00 am.
The Testing for Access system is also temporarily paused in the hospitality industry.
This means that from Saturday 1.5 meters away must also be kept in, for example, eateries, restaurants and bars.

Also: Multi-day events may not take place until August 13.

,,We will continue fully with our preparations”, says circuit director Robert van Overdijk. "We assume that the current government measures are so effective that we can still organize the Grand Prix with a full house."

Zandvoort expects more than 100,000 spectators a day on 3, 4 and 5 September.

[TNTHead]

(add-on: I am a bit fed up with the news channels leaking the new measures beforehand... especially since they have been off a few times, which caused problems with barbers already starting to make appointments based on the leaked info, and later being told they couldn't open up at the leaked date yet. Can't these people just show a bit of restraint? That you have certain info, doesn't mean you need to immediately throw it in the open... is it that hard to wait, especially if the official announcement is on the same day....)

As I see it, the early leakes are part of the communication strategy, which helps them monitor the response in society. I don’t like it either, why have a press conference anyway.

Surprised that corona is back full on the agenda. With the closure of outdoor events until 13 August makes it indeed uncertain whether the Dutch GP can proceed.

[adrianjordan]

(add-on: I am a bit fed up with the news channels leaking the new measures beforehand... especially since they have been off a few times, which caused problems with barbers already starting to make appointments based on the leaked info, and later being told they couldn't open up at the leaked date yet. Can't these people just show a bit of restraint? That you have certain info, doesn't mean you need to immediately throw it in the open... is it that hard to wait, especially if the official announcement is on the same day....)

As I see it, the early leakes are part of the communication strategy, which helps them monitor the response in society. I don’t like it either, why have a press conference anyway.

Surprised that corona is back full on the agenda. With the closure of outdoor events until 13 August makes it indeed uncertain whether the Dutch GP can proceed.

It sends mixed messages though and has brought home to me just how stupid some parts of society are.

I've had patients tell me they no longer "have to" wear a mask because the "pandemic is over" and "Covid has gone".

Why do they think this? Because Blowjob Johnson has said that we can stop all precautions and carry on as if Covid wasn't an issue any more from 19th July (I'm in the UK). Or at least that what they heard.

Announce the changes when they come into force and not before. It's like when they said that India was going onto the Red List for travel....but gave a notice period. So of course everyone flew back before that. Low and behold the Indian (aka Delta) Variant arrived in the country.

[Ethan Connor]

Yes I think it will defiantly effect the RACE. But on the other hand the authorities will proceed with minimum interaction (gathering) like Pakistan already done with Pakistan Super League.