Juzh wrote: ↑30 Aug 2021, 11:56
basti313 wrote: ↑30 Aug 2021, 10:08
ispano6 wrote: ↑30 Aug 2021, 04:49
..... Mercedes gambled on a dry race and made the wrong call, but also benefitted from not having to run their dry race set up in a wet race. ....
I am still surprised by this assumption. Nothing in the data supports this:
- All top speeds are well sorted by the engines. Except for the usually low drag AT, you can see Merc engine cars on the top. Everyone bolted on all downforce they had and we see the naturally more grunge of the Merc engine as expected. This was discussed in the week before the race already, that Spa is a track where you see an engine advantage also in the wet.
- Ham had always one of the best S2 in Q. Clearly speaks against a dry setup...
- One of the major differences was the bus stop. Ham neither came out well to start the lap, nor did he get through it on the lap. This was the only place where the Bull was clearly better.
- Rus was clearly better in La Source and Pouhon, ~0.3sec each. If you look at the lap comparisons you can see the Merc and the Bull being better everywhere else on the track but the drivers bottled it in La Source and Pouhon. Ham and Rus bottled a bit the Bus Stop, this is where all the loss in the end came to Verstappen. With the natural speed of the cars extracted more similar, we would have had Ver and Ham very close and Rus being about 0.6sec behind them.
Furthermore there is no real "wet setup" anymore. Tire pressures are on the low limit, ride height is only changed by the tire diameter, wings are clearly visible and according to the top speeds they were fairly similar.
I disagree with this post almost entirely. Williams correctly predicted lots of rain for quali and clearly ran with a big rear wing in the context of this track. As a result they were slow on the straights, even with mercedes PU.
Red bull/williams rear wing:
This corelates perfectly with observed performance trough the lap. Williams is fast in corners and not so much on the straights. Check clip below
Mercedes went with a medium DF wing (the one hamilton used on friday, the higher downforce version) with much higher AOE compared to red bull but not as much as williams. It's true mercedes are getting saved by their engine (again) because even with so much wing they were reasonably faster than red bull on straights.
But it isn't true that everyone bolted on all downforce they could and just run with it, as red bull clearly didn't, not by a long shot.
You are making a wrong assumption here with aero efficiency. The aero efficiency of both Merc and Bull are miles ahead of the Williams. This is why at similar DF levels the Bull or Merc is still faster than the Williams. The Bulls had a different deployment with a much slower entry. For the Merc:
Entry to Eau Rouge is 302 LH, 298 GR.
End of Kemmel straight is LH 310, GR 304.
This is nothing if we look at aero performance difference from Merc to Williams. On tracks like Azer they had similar top speed and the Merc was one second faster in the corners.
Williams used here their medium downforce package. Just like Merc. As parts of the Q were run in Inter conditions no one could put on a high DF setup as they would still loose too much time on the straight on the Inter. Merc even put the gurney on the wing.
Everyone was on a similarly high DF setup and as you can read above and if you look at the video you posted with the ghost car you see that the Bull was faster anywhere than in the mentioned corners. How should this fit to the theory of significantly more DF on the Williams?