2021 AMG Mercedes F1 Team

[Zynerji]

I’ve got a concern that Max will build enough of a gap in the first stint to be safe.

This is the most likely scenario. The only hope for Merc is that Hamilton can find some more speed lap by lap in terms of pure driving, given how few he has driven so far compared to the others.

The great equalizer will be the safety car. It will erase gaps, and Merc have 2 sets of Mediums. So if the race migrates to a 2-stop, I think they become favorites.

No safety car here, just red flags and free tyres!

[zibby43]

I’ve got a concern that Max will build enough of a gap in the first stint to be safe.

I don't think it is likely even if Max is capable of doing it. I think it is going to be a race peppered with VSC'c actual SC and probably a few Red flags.
It would be a waste of resource to run any more than a handful of seconds infront

Yep, a few posts down from that one, I agreed with your point about the SC/VSC.

Merc has the best remaining rubber for such a situation.

[Shrieker]

If the Mercs can retain 2nd and 3rd in the opening lap at least, they can pull all sorts of funnies on Max strategy wise.

The only way Max could be %100 safe is, if he manages to pull a full pit stop on Bottas, which isn't very likely.

I agree, theres no way Max pulls 20 seconds on bottas in the first stint. I feel Merc will be stronger in the race like we have seen for most of the year, so that would put Merc ahead in race pace. Lewis will just sit 3 seconds back and Bottas will slowly fall back to 7-10 seconds. Lewis will either go for an undercut when clear of P4, or if Max pits first they stay out and hope Bottas can slow Max for a few laps. Then go for the over cut (or get lucky with a SC) if that doesn't work they will have fresher tyres to try a pass on track.

Yeah it's a double whammy. They can't just try undercut Hamilton, if that makes them fall behind Bottas. That would be handing out the race to Hamilton on a silver platter. And if they try to go long, they're risking an undercut from Hamilton. Tuff, tuff position to be in.

I think their only hope is Gasly jumping one or both Mercs at the start / on the opening lap.

[zibby43]

If the Mercs can retain 2nd and 3rd in the opening lap at least, they can pull all sorts of funnies on Max strategy wise.

The only way Max could be %100 safe is, if he manages to pull a full pit stop on Bottas, which isn't very likely.

I agree, theres no way Max pulls 20 seconds on bottas in the first stint. I feel Merc will be stronger in the race like we have seen for most of the year, so that would put Merc ahead in race pace. Lewis will just sit 3 seconds back and Bottas will slowly fall back to 7-10 seconds. Lewis will either go for an undercut when clear of P4, or if Max pits first they stay out and hope Bottas can slow Max for a few laps. Then go for the over cut (or get lucky with a SC) if that doesn't work they will have fresher tyres to try a pass on track.

Yeah it's a double whammy. They can't just try undercut Hamilton, if that makes them fall behind Bottas. That would be handing out the race to Hamilton on a silver platter. And if they try to go long, they're risking an undercut from Hamilton. Tuff, tuff position to be in.

I think their only hope is Gasly jumping one or both Mercs at the start / on the opening lap.

And Gasly starts 4th, which hasn’t been a great position on the grid for starts thus far.

Hamilton will have the inside line into T1. Merc need to put that plenum to good use in the opening lap.

[Manoah2u]

Easily a first-corner collision or bump between Max and Lewis.

[dans79]

This is the most likely scenario. The only hope for Merc is that Hamilton can find some more speed lap by lap in terms of pure driving, given how few he has driven so far compared to the others.

The great equalizer will be the safety car. It will erase gaps, and Merc have 2 sets of Mediums. So if the race migrates to a 2-stop, I think they become favorites.

No safety car here, just red flags and free tyres!

Depends, In the race I don't think George's excursion would have caused a safety car!

[ringo]

This track looks like a difficult one to manage the pace from the lead. Max may just need to go as fast as he can and build a 15s gap by lap 10. The car has the pace to stay out of trouble like we saw in France.
Lewis best strategy is to pressure max into an error, forcing him to not finish the race. Mercedes needs the points buffer.
Dutch fans arent going to like it, but i can see max braking too late for turn 3 and understeering into the barrier, or veering off into the gravel trap, or even tangling with a back marker.
There will be fire works!

[zibby43]

This track looks like a difficult one to manage the pace from the lead. Max may just need to go as fast as he can and build a 15s gap by lap 10.

15s in 10 laps would mean Merc could pack up both cars and come back in 2022.

That would be Merc 2014-type dominance.

[dans79]

I think the only real issue was Merc was losing a boat load of time from turn 2 exit through turn 3 exit, and then as a consequence a little more through the rest of sector 1. If I had to guess it's because of how stiffly they have the car sprung, and it's longer wheelbase. I think a good deal of that will get negated in the race, because of the higher fuel load, harder tires used for most of the race, and less ES deployment!

[Hoffman900]

I think an equalizer here will the whole course will essentially be “dirty air” after a few laps running.

I hope this race is as entertaining as I think it is capable of being.

[Zynerji]

I agree, theres no way Max pulls 20 seconds on bottas in the first stint. I feel Merc will be stronger in the race like we have seen for most of the year, so that would put Merc ahead in race pace. Lewis will just sit 3 seconds back and Bottas will slowly fall back to 7-10 seconds. Lewis will either go for an undercut when clear of P4, or if Max pits first they stay out and hope Bottas can slow Max for a few laps. Then go for the over cut (or get lucky with a SC) if that doesn't work they will have fresher tyres to try a pass on track.

Yeah it's a double whammy. They can't just try undercut Hamilton, if that makes them fall behind Bottas. That would be handing out the race to Hamilton on a silver platter. And if they try to go long, they're risking an undercut from Hamilton. Tuff, tuff position to be in.

I think their only hope is Gasly jumping one or both Mercs at the start / on the opening lap.

And Gasly starts 4th, which hasn’t been a great position on the grid for starts thus far.

Hamilton will have the inside line into T1. Merc need to put that plenum to good use in the opening lap.

I think new tyres on lap 20-25 will be able to overtake against old tyres. The tighter inside lines are ripe to be picked in that scenario.

I think we will see lots of passing during the pitstop phase (if we ever get a green flag stop, that is).

[Zynerji]

I think an equalizer here will the whole course will essentially be “dirty air” after a few laps running.

I hope this race is as entertaining as I think it is capable of being.

Agreed. Only "too quick/many" red flags can ruin it. VSC best for this show IMHO.

[zibby43]

Yeah it's a double whammy. They can't just try undercut Hamilton, if that makes them fall behind Bottas. That would be handing out the race to Hamilton on a silver platter. And if they try to go long, they're risking an undercut from Hamilton. Tuff, tuff position to be in.

I think their only hope is Gasly jumping one or both Mercs at the start / on the opening lap.

And Gasly starts 4th, which hasn’t been a great position on the grid for starts thus far.

Hamilton will have the inside line into T1. Merc need to put that plenum to good use in the opening lap.

I think new tyres on lap 20-25 will be able to overtake against old tyres. The tighter inside lines are ripe to be picked in that scenario.

I think we will see lots of passing during the pitstop phase (if we ever get a green flag stop, that is).

Definitely going to be fascinating to see the strategies play out.

It would be kind of hilarious if there ends up being 0 retirements and 0 VSC/SC deployments.

[ringo]

I think the only real issue was Merc was losing a boat load of time from turn 2 exit through turn 3 exit, and then as a consequence a little more through the rest of sector 1. If I had to guess it's because of how stiffly they have the car sprung, and it's longer wheelbase. I think a good deal of that will get negated in the race, because of the higher fuel load, harder tires used for most of the race, and less ES deployment!

It's maybe more to do with the raw downforce on the redbull car. Watching the RB16B trough the corners is mesmerizing. The change of direction without any kind of upset or twitch its an amazing machine.

Hamilton's Q3 lap was actually very clean, while Max made a few errors. I don't think mercedes can do much to correct the car to be any smoother to improve the lap time. I do think however, that the car is a good race car in terms of tyre degradation, and consistency across the harder compounds.

I do wonder about Bottas status with the team, but he is very focused on performing and cooperating with the team. He has done well this weekend to be at the front end and if he gets away well tomorrow he can prevent Max from winning with strategy. If the team continue to use two cars against one successfully, it's a really tough choice to drop Bottas.
I do think that Bottas may volunteer to leave and try another path to become world champion.

[max_speed]

This track looks like a difficult one to manage the pace from the lead. Max may just need to go as fast as he can and build a 15s gap by lap 10. The car has the pace to stay out of trouble like we saw in France.
Lewis best strategy is to pressure max into an error, forcing him to not finish the race. Mercedes needs the points buffer.
Dutch fans arent going to like it, but i can see max braking too late for turn 3 and understeering into the barrier, or veering off into the gravel trap, or even tangling with a back marker.
There will be fire works!

If this happens, i do not think ham or mercedes will be able to attend Monza. There is no way they can leave track . It is not silverstone where you can do this and get away.