SiLo wrote: ↑09 Sep 2021, 10:21
Surely Mercedes aren't taking a penalty here when they could be odds on for a win? Better to take one in Russia where I see it as easier to overtake for them.
Im not so sure, If Max is taking an engine change, then its the ideal to do the same. Take Sochi and Monza as the 2 best places to do it, Mercedes could see themelves as favourites for both. If Max takes a grid pen in Monza, he will probably qualify 3rd, start 13th, still finish 3rd. Mercedes start 1-2 and finish 1-2. So Lewis gains 10pts.
Then in Sochi, Mercedes take their new PU's. They qualify 1-2 with Max 3rd. Max starts 1st, Lewis and Bottas start 11th and 12th. Max wins with such a head start. Lewis finishes 2nd. Max gains 7pts. So over 2 races Lewis gains 3pts.
If they take the grid penalty walong with RedBull at monza, Lewis would start Monza 11th, to Max's 13th. Lewis still wins with Max 2nd or 3rd as I expect him to be better than Bottas getting through the field. So a 7pts gain for Lewis.
Then Sochi, no penalties, Mercedes favourite , and grab a 1-2, a 10pts gain. So over 2 races its a 17pts gain.
I know this depends on RedBulltaking a pen in Monza, and all cars starting cleanly and not being involved in an incident. But the theory is right and with such an advantage in pace over the 8 other teams, starting 11th in Monza is very win-able for Mercedes. The last race Max and Lewis (if he hadn't had taken the final pitstop for fastest lap) lapped the entire field such was their pace advantage!