2021 AMG Mercedes F1 Team

[rickybobbyf1]

What a circus this year. When it’s not the team, it’s him making mistakes. Wrong season to not be on top of things.

[Mr.S]

37 to 23 is a huge gap though! 14 years! Youth must be worth something here. According to f1-metrics' driver age model, the peak is 26 and it sort of plateaus until 32, where it goes down by a few fractions of "points per race" which is the unit that the author uses in his model, up to the age of 37. Thereafter, the points per race nose-dives into oblivion. So pretty much it is saying that, like Michael Schumacher before him, Lewis' driving should turn to crap somewhere in 2022 or over into 2023 when George should start dominating him. That said, it would be beyond what we know of human conditioning if Lewis can somehow maintain peak form in his twilight years and resist George's speed.

I agree. Michael was a beast initially till 2006 (36 odd). At 40-42, he was not the same guy. He could still do the amazing Monza lap but it was few & far. Qualifying is the first thing which gets hit - Look @ MSC vs Rosberg, Kimi vs Gio & so on. Even Ocon is quite close to Vettel. The race pace not so much (everyone cruises vs qualifying) plus you have experience & race-craft to make up for raw speed.

I do see Russel beating Hamilton in qualifying in 2022 or if not 2022, atleast in 2023, when LH will be 39.

Alonso is possibly the only exception & defies logic. He was great in 2015-2018 (when he was 33-37 odd, he was smashing people) & he is still actually a lot better than was MSC or Kimi was (when they were 40). Button was also decent till 2015 odd (35-36 odd). I guess after mid-30s, the pace difference starts to show !

[Mr.S]

37 to 23 is a huge gap though! 14 years! Youth must be worth something here. According to f1-metrics' driver age model, the peak is 26 and it sort of plateaus until 32, where it goes down by a few fractions of "points per race" which is the unit that the author uses in his model, up to the age of 37. Thereafter, the points per race nose-dives into oblivion. So pretty much it is saying that, like Michael Schumacher before him, Lewis' driving should turn to crap somewhere in 2022 or over into 2023 when George should start dominating him. That said, it would be beyond what we know of human conditioning if Lewis can somehow maintain peak form in his twilight years and resist George's speed.

Don't tell Alonso that lol

Lewis was amongst the first of the drivers to redefine the level of fitness for this generation of drivers, much like Schumacher did in the 90s. I can see Lewis maintaining his peak level until he decides to retire.

I feel like Senna was the proto-modern driver. Into working out, eating clean ans whole organic foods, etc. Alan Prost maybe wasn’t as obsessive but kept himself in good shape and I think was athletic growing up (and still active with bikes / running).

Schumacher I think brought in the scientific side of fitness and it’s been like that since.

Lewis is in great shape physically. We’ll see how long that translates to driving, but he certainly isn’t slowing down quickly.

Senna & Prost by modern standards would be considered not fit enough for F1 & so was Mansell but that was a different era.

Schumacher was ahead of his time & way way fitter. His overall conditioning was unmatched @ that time. He would give blood samples in the middle of testing to show his aerobic level & would try to get his blood sample near that level while in the gym. He was a revolutionary fitness wise & changed the game totally.

Nowadays everyone is very fit - Hamilton & the new breed are all super breed. That was a different era- The 80s & the 90s !

[Hoffman900]

Proto means pre.

In an era of party boys, those two took their fitness and diet seriously, Schumacher took it to the next level.

[Mr.S]

Proto means pre.

In an era of party boys, those two took their fitness and diet seriously, Schumacher took it to the next level.

Probably true compared to others.....It is a very different thing now.

Track testing has come down & budget caps & sustainability are big so simulators have become big. Back in the old days, the big dogs will dismiss simulator as a joke & a video game ! The sort of data, telemetry we get now is insane.

[Hoffman900]

Proto means pre.

In an era of party boys, those two took their fitness and diet seriously, Schumacher took it to the next level.

Probably true compared to others.....It is a very different thing now.

Track testing has come down & budget caps & sustainability are big so simulators have become big. Back in the old days, the big dogs will dismiss simulator as a joke & a video game ! The sort of data, telemetry we get now is insane.

Because they were.

Drivers like Kimi, Lewis, Seb, Alonso bridge the gap from testing / simulators actually being worthwhile.

[Fulcrum]

37 to 23 is a huge gap though! 14 years! Youth must be worth something here. According to f1-metrics' driver age model, the peak is 26 and it sort of plateaus until 32, where it goes down by a few fractions of "points per race" which is the unit that the author uses in his model, up to the age of 37. Thereafter, the points per race nose-dives into oblivion. So pretty much it is saying that, like Michael Schumacher before him, Lewis' driving should turn to crap somewhere in 2022 or over into 2023 when George should start dominating him. That said, it would be beyond what we know of human conditioning if Lewis can somehow maintain peak form in his twilight years and resist George's speed.

I have a feeling those models are highly flawed. Fangio won the world championship in 1957 at age 46. Drivers are much more physically fit for a given age than they were 10, 20 or 30 years ago for a given age.

Kind of a circular argument considering you have to compete against your contemporaries.

There is plenty of excellent research available that corroborates the point regarding age. In most examples of peak physical exertion, a 20-something will command a clear advantage, on average, over a late 30-something.

This effect is less pronounced for sports with a significant endurance component, e.g. marathon or ultra-marathon running. F1 requires both peak performance and endurance, so a slightly delayed form of senescence is quite likely, meaning most drivers could remain competitive into their mid-30's. Beyond that, decline becomes inevitable and observable, a finding corroborated by the f1-metric model.

For virtually all sports of significance, repetitive stress injuries creep in, training becomes disrupted, and athletes can no longer perform as consistently. That as well as the mental fatigue and creeping responsibilities of family life take their toll. Hamilton has a major advantage over other sportsmen/women in this regard considering he is not a 'family man', and has a very low exposure to repetitive stress injury.

If Hamilton remains focused on the sport, and injury free, he may be able to perform near his current level for the remainder of his Mercedes contract (2022-2023).

I personally think he's already exhibiting some signs of decline, so a tapering in performance seems more likely. Whether this translates to Russell beating him remains to be seen. I slightly below peak Hamilton would still constitute a better driver than 99% of all drivers to have ever participated in the sport (in my opinion).

As for the models being 'highly flawed', they are likely to suffer from over-specification, confounding variables, and bias induced by the choice of modelling approach. That said, I have exposure to this field of study, and I found the f1-metric analysis to be an excellent attempt, even if I wouldn't take its findings as gospel.

[Gillian]

37 to 23 is a huge gap though! 14 years! Youth must be worth something here. According to f1-metrics' driver age model, the peak is 26 and it sort of plateaus until 32, where it goes down by a few fractions of "points per race" which is the unit that the author uses in his model, up to the age of 37. Thereafter, the points per race nose-dives into oblivion. So pretty much it is saying that, like Michael Schumacher before him, Lewis' driving should turn to crap somewhere in 2022 or over into 2023 when George should start dominating him. That said, it would be beyond what we know of human conditioning if Lewis can somehow maintain peak form in his twilight years and resist George's speed.

I have a feeling those models are highly flawed. Fangio won the world championship in 1957 at age 46. Drivers are much more physically fit for a given age than they were 10, 20 or 30 years ago for a given age.

Kind of a circular argument considering you have to compete against your contemporaries.

There is plenty of excellent research available that corroborates the point regarding age. In most examples of peak physical exertion, a 20-something will command a clear advantage, on average, over a late 30-something.

This effect is less pronounced for sports with a significant endurance component, e.g. marathon or ultra-marathon running. F1 requires both peak performance and endurance, so a slightly delayed form of senescence is quite likely, meaning most drivers could remain competitive into their mid-30's. Beyond that, decline becomes inevitable and observable, a finding corroborated by the f1-metric model.

For virtually all sports of significance, repetitive stress injuries creep in, training becomes disrupted, and athletes can no longer perform as consistently. That as well as the mental fatigue and creeping responsibilities of family life take their toll. Hamilton has a major advantage over other sportsmen/women in this regard considering he is not a 'family man', and has a very low exposure to repetitive stress injury.

If Hamilton remains focused on the sport, and injury free, he may be able to perform near his current level for the remainder of his Mercedes contract (2022-2023).

I personally think he's already exhibiting some signs of decline, so a tapering in performance seems more likely. Whether this translates to Russell beating him remains to be seen. I slightly below peak Hamilton would still constitute a better driver than 99% of all drivers to have ever participated in the sport (in my opinion).

As for the models being 'highly flawed', they are likely to suffer from over-specification, confounding variables, and bias induced by the choice of modelling approach. That said, I have exposure to this field of study, and I found the f1-metric analysis to be an excellent attempt, even if I wouldn't take its findings as gospel.

I totally agree with you and I would like to add that I have not seen any evidence for Russel wiping the floor with Hamilton next year. Will be very interesting to see.

[Shrieker]

Umm. Why has Bottas not towed Hamilton in quali, when Perez has ? Merc have shot themselves in the foot.

With that said, with Bottas now confirmed to leave, he might not play the team game, which he hinted at in the Netherlands.

[RZS10]

Lewis was right behind Bottas on track so he had every chance to choose the distance he wanted, if anything then it's on him.

[PlatinumZealot]

Yes. It was a couple hundreths a bit of shame.

[Hammerfist]

Umm. Why has Bottas not towed Hamilton in quali, when Perez has ? Merc have shot themselves in the foot.

With that said, with Bottas now confirmed to leave, he might not play the team game, which he hinted at in the Netherlands.

I reviewed the onboards of both Max and Lewis during q3 qualifying with F1tv. Max was not anywhere close to perez, before they started going; the gap was about 3 sec, but Perez did have a car in front of him too. But it is still rather surprising to me that Max was able to benefit from a tow being that far behind.

Hamilton had maybe slightly more of a gap to Bottas, about 4sec but Bottas did not have anyone in front of him. I didn't realize extra cars in front would affect the tow that much and even from that far behind.

It was a great sleight of hand from Verstappen. He really should never have been P3 on pace alone. Both Mclarens should have outqualified him. Things have started going Max's way this year, especially these last 3 weekends.

[Mr.S]

i mean 3s or 4s infront, you get a tow. And Perez was the 1st guy infront so LH certainly was helped. No use blaming others. Bottas put in a better lap than LH. And then LH really messed up on the start when all others in dirty side gained places or atleast help up their position.

Anyways Lewis has to overtake 1 of the Mclarens in the 1st few laps to make the race competitive otherwise Max will run away (provided 1 of the Mclarens don't overtake him).

[djones]

So far a weekend of such strategic incompetence it's actually a complete public embarrassment.

A track where they are probably 0.4 of a second faster than their nearest rival, yet they have managed to not only lose points in the WDC, they are starting 4th and last on a track you seemingly can't overtake very well.

Whoever decided to not give Lewis a tow in qualifying needs sacking for gross negligence. And the same for the complete clown that decided to start an 18 lap race on mediums and not soft.

[Tommy Cookers]

... Michael was a beast initially till 2006 (36 odd). At 40-42, he was not the same guy....

didn't he have a substantial head/neck injury from his motorcycle racing F1-sabbatical phase ?
some lasting impairment about which he kept quiet - as racers do