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Formula One’s governing body, the FIA has confirmed that the sport agreed to delay the technical regulation overhaul for 2021 until 2022 due to the ongoing coronavirus crises.
Remember this is case fatality rate. It only counts confirmed cases, nobody knows how many infections there are. Germany has over 17k infections and some 50 casualties. Germany also tested more people than the rest of the EU combined.
Germany is 2 weeks behind. 2 weeks ago, the number of fatalities were also much lower in Italy. As has been mentioned before, people don't just die within 2 days once testing positive. Reaching conclusions about higher or lower dead rate in Germany are therefore premature. It is correct though that in Italy, many are dying as a direct result of insufficient resources (overloaded health system) though and probably a higher percentage of elderly being affected.
I know that, but that doesn't affect what I said. The registered case fatality rate is strongly affected by the number of tested - which is a limiting factor. I know 4 persons in my surroundings now that possibly have the virus (of which one very, very likely), none of those are counted because they have not been tested. Now, this is anecdotal and has no quantitative value of course, but it illustrates the issue.Phil wrote: ↑20 Mar 2020, 19:48Germany is 2 weeks behind. 2 weeks ago, the number of fatalities were also much lower in Italy. As has been mentioned before, people don't just die within 2 days once testing positive. Reaching conclusions about higher or lower dead rate in Germany are therefore premature. It is correct though that in Italy, many are dying as a direct result of insufficient resources (overloaded health system) though and probably a higher percentage of elderly being affected.
W>H>O seem to be taking South Korea data as they did extreme high testing number with very good test kits.DChemTech wrote: ↑20 Mar 2020, 19:59I know that, but that doesn't affect what I said. The registered case fatality rate is strongly affected by the number of tested - which is a limiting factor. I know 4 persons in my surroundings now that possibly have the virus (of which one very, very likely), none of those are counted because they have not been tested. Now, this is anecdotal and has no quantitative value of course, but it illustrates the issue.Phil wrote: ↑20 Mar 2020, 19:48Germany is 2 weeks behind. 2 weeks ago, the number of fatalities were also much lower in Italy. As has been mentioned before, people don't just die within 2 days once testing positive. Reaching conclusions about higher or lower dead rate in Germany are therefore premature. It is correct though that in Italy, many are dying as a direct result of insufficient resources (overloaded health system) though and probably a higher percentage of elderly being affected.
Germany, having tested more than anyone else, likely has a better view than anyone on how many cases there actually are. Sure, if the number of infections would freeze today, part of those already infected would still die. Yet, it seems unlikely that they would reach a 10% mortality rate like Italy is reporting, by the simple metric that Germany has a more complete case registration. And note, I do absolutely think the situation in Italy is horrible. That does not mean we should not put the numbers into proper context.
Germany cant test everyone too and i know people who likely have it there, but cant get a test. I’m just saying that comparing two different countries on different time lines will net you wrong conclusions. The fatality number is going to continue to grow (exponential) as the number of cases does as well as after the illness has progressed for a couple of days.
10% of those who make it to get tested. That's the difference. It could mean that there are waaaay more infected that haven't tested as yet. We also know a large majority are old folks too. These people might get first priority on the test kits as well.
Unless this is the first cure that is gonna get developed within a year, I don't see that happening. Developing cures generally takes longer periods of time because it involves a lot of testing.
that is a very awesome link. Sars-CoV-2 does mutate a LOT doesn't it. They make a new flu vaccine every year tho don't they, because that virus mutates, so hopefully it's something that can still be vaccinated againstBig Tea wrote: ↑20 Mar 2020, 19:44There is an article here. But it is not the one I was reading. TBH I have read so many lately I am swamped.
https://towardsdatascience.com/machine- ... f93cfaf544
From the link
Each one of the rows represents one mutation of the bat virus. First, just take a minute to admire how incredible nature is — within a few weeks, the coronavirus has already created 262 mutations (and counting) of itself to increase survival rates.
There are 4 ways to 'make' a vaccine, and (I think) only one of them is upset by the mutation unless it is a very big stepizzy wrote: ↑21 Mar 2020, 00:05that is a very awesome link. Sars-CoV-2 does mutate a LOT doesn't it. They make a new flu vaccine every year tho don't they, because that virus mutates, so hopefully it's something that can still be vaccinated againstBig Tea wrote: ↑20 Mar 2020, 19:44There is an article here. But it is not the one I was reading. TBH I have read so many lately I am swamped.
https://towardsdatascience.com/machine- ... f93cfaf544
From the link
Each one of the rows represents one mutation of the bat virus. First, just take a minute to admire how incredible nature is — within a few weeks, the coronavirus has already created 262 mutations (and counting) of itself to increase survival rates.