GPR-A wrote: ↑09 Jun 2018, 14:39
Since last year that I have been observing, on the face of it, FP2 times are what you see in Race (up to mid race), barring a few exceptions. I don't understand this engine modes, fuel loads and gains overnight as you don't see the cars being vastly different from FP2 to race. This has been the picture for both Ferrari and Mercedes.
Pole position advantage has always put a car in clean air and allows it to run a controlled race pace. At times, even when the car isn't the outright fastest in race mode. Unlike the previous years, where Mercedes used to start from pole and disappear in distance, this year, though Ferrari seems to have been the faster car in qualifying, they haven't managed to run away from the Mercedes. Their race pace corroborates with what you see in qualifying (closest). Despite not being on pole, Mercedes manages to stay very close to Ferrari in races and at so many times, they have proved to be faster in races. It's the qualifying advantage with which Ferrari manages to battle Mercedes. If Mercedes manages pole, then it becomes difficult for Ferrari to keep up.
Pretty much.
My theory is, the Ferrari engine is less efficient, and this might be causing the 'apparent' differentials from FP2 to quali-3 (if there is such a thing - would need the data to assess the claim).
When Ferrari and Mercedes perform race sims (start to mid race, conducted in FP2), they're comparable, Mercedes possibly a bit faster.
But, Mercedes don't need as full a tank as Ferrari do. Ferrari are able to 'gain' more when switching to qualifying trim because they are removing 95kg of weight, while Mercedes only remove 90kg (using example figures).
This would imply the Ferrari is the faster car in an absolute sense, but the Mercedes is faster per unit of fuel consumption.
I doubt the differentials are big either way, so it is impossible to say with any certainty.