2012 Korean GP - Yeong-Am

[raymondu999]

It's gonna be funny watching these ''educational guesses'' blow down the wind in the race tomorrow.
Do people really believe that Ferrari is now fastest car suddenly?! Something they haven't been all the way through the season.

No, I son't believe it's fast in quali trim. But as with the last 2.75 years it's had excellent race pace (except in 2011 whenever medium/hard tyres)

Lord knows I am a Vettel fan, and I wish my data was wrong!

Your calculations are similar to those made by James Beck. He developed IntelligentF1 data simulation model and its usually pretty accurate.

Interesting that we have similar results, though I don't generally bother doing an entire-grid model, nor do I seemingly spend as much time/effort into my calculations! I'll have to read up more on his methodology and calculations, assuming he has the literature on it available somewhere. Thanks for that Forza. Very very interesting. I looks pretty sound to me in terms of methodology.

Btw I'd like to add a disclaimer to my post - IIRC the Ferraris took to the track the last - track evolution has been massive all weekend as the track just ramps up a whole lot, and that could have played a factor in making Ferrari look quick.

[Vanja #66]

It's gonna be funny watching these ''educational guesses'' blow down the wind in the race tomorrow.
Do people really believe that Ferrari is now fastest car suddenly?! Something they haven't been all the way through the season.

What's really funny is that those educated guesses were pretty accurate this season... Last time Alonso was this close (time wise) to pole, he had a chance to win, were it not for Pic slowing him when Maldonado went to box in Barcelona.

[Forza]

Yes I agree. The track conditions will further improve during the race as the track will rubber and it's even more challenging at FPs to get the balance right for the race as teams have to predict the evaluation level. Most teams are confident about their race pace so we shall see how the race develops. The surface is not as aggressive as on some other tracks and Pirelli stated that 1 stop could be an option for some cars.

[dxpetrov]

It's gonna be funny watching these ''educational guesses'' blow down the wind in the race tomorrow.
Do people really believe that Ferrari is now fastest car suddenly?! Something they haven't been all the way through the season.

What's really funny is that those educated guesses were pretty accurate this season... Last time Alonso was this close (time wise) to pole, he had a chance to win, were it not for Pic slowing him when Maldonado went to box in Barcelona.

Ferrari never had better race pace than RB whole season, except in Monza which is a special track.
Reading the lap times from FP in race sim is very vague and there are many factors to count in and out.
For example, I was clearly seeing SV never used more than 16k rpm in those laps in FP2 yesterday.
Food for thought.

[JimClarkFan]

Your calculations are similar to those made by James Beck. He developed IntelligentF1 data simulation model and its usually pretty accurate.

Will see how accurate it will be this time

Korean Grand Prix: Friday Practice Analysis

And so to Korea. It may be close between Alonso and Vettel in the championship, and the Red Bulls may have locked out the front row, but the Friday practice suggests that in race trim it is the Ferrari that is the fastest car. I’ve seen some reports which suggest that Jenson Button did the fastest race stint in FP2. I don’t agree – I have the red cars all the way. Which bodes well for an entertaining race.

As usual, although I have struggled to get this done on some recent race weekends, I’ve fitted the long run data using the intelligentF1 model to get out the underlying pace of each car as shown in Friday practice. This has usually been a very good indicator of the Sunday performance, although not always! For those who are used to reading the charts, I’ve put the laps (missing out slow laps) on the chart below. The steeper the upward gradient, the faster the car. And the red lines (Ferrari) are at the top.



It’s worth noting that there is no useful data for Hamilton, the Saubers, Maldonado the Marussias, the HRTs and Kovalainen. The rest of them stack up like this:
Alonso +0.0s
Button/Massa +0.3s
Di Resta +0.5s
Vettel/Raikkonen +0.7s
Grosjean/Hulkenburg +0.8s
Webber +1.0s
Senna +1.1s
Rosberg +1.5s
Ricciardo +1.6s
Schumacher +1.8s
Vergne +2.2s
Petrov +2.4s

So it looks good for Ferrari and (to some extent) McLaren, and it does seem that the Red Bulls are unlikely to run away with it. In fact, I don’t think that they are favourites unless they are holding something in hand. The pace of the Lotus and Force India cars are good – Di Resta will be very disappointed at being only 14th on the grid as points beckon again. Once again the Mercedes seem to be quite disappointing on Friday – they tend to do a little better in the races, but their tyre wear was poor in comparison with the others. I guess they’ll still be in the battle for the minor points places.

The tyre wear is light here – the stints are clearly increasing in pace unless you are Petrov or driving a Mercedes – and it is rarely as clear as this. Two stops were the norm last year, and I think we’ll see something similar, probably with the supersoft as the favoured race tyre. Pirelli have said that one-stoppers are possible. Quite something when we remember that the doomsayers were predicting five stops last year. How things change.

There is evidence to suggest that the Ferrari and the Williams are again good on their tyres – I can see the blue cars going for a single stop. I guess that we may expect something similar from Perez. What would be fun is if Ferrari went for it with Massa – it might just win him the race.

CCCCCCCCCOOOOOOOOMMMMMEEEEEEEE OOOONNNN AAALLLLOOOONNNNSSSSOOOOO!!!!



*another quality post from JimClarkFan*

[raymondu999]

Ferrari never had better race pace than RB whole season, except in Monza which is a special track.

I'd argue otherwise in Spain.

Last time Alonso was this close (time wise) to pole, he had a chance to win, were it not for Pic slowing him when Maldonado went to box in Barcelona.

I don't agree that he could win after Maldonado had pitted before him - but if Alonso had pitted before and gotten the undercut instead, I agree he could have won.

I had Maldonado as very quick that weekend, ditto Senna. But I foolishly wrote it off as running light.

But yes, the cars went on track during different times in FP2 (different levels of track evolution), and they probably had different (even if only slight) levels of fuel load, and they probably had different engine modes. Traffic is also a question mark.

To summarise - these are all educated guesses, but in truth, nobody knows what'll happen

[TheGkbrk]

I hope I won't have an heart attack at tomorrow's start. I just want Alonso to go through the first corner cleanly and after that he knows what to do

[beelsebob]

I hope I won't have an heart attack at tomorrow's start. I just want Alonso to go through the first corner cleanly and after that he knows what to do

My hope... Greasjean moves across and squeezes Massa, who flies hamilton style over Alonso and takes out Vettel. Hamilton passes Webber into turn 1 and cruises to the victory.

[mzivtins]

yep! i want a no point finish for both alonso and vettel! would make things so much tighter in the WDC

[turbof1]

Having the pace is one thing, being able to utilise its full potentional is another. Webber and Vettel aren't going to make eachother's race a hell, so those 2 will have a comfortable first stint at the very least. Alonso and Hamilton will be fighting eachother, with one of them forcing the other to keep distance else the tyres will wear off too quickly.

[NathanOlder]

I hope I won't have an heart attack at tomorrow's start. I just want Alonso to go through the first corner cleanly and after that he knows what to do

My hope... Greasjean moves across and squeezes Massa, who flies hamilton style over Alonso and takes out Vettel. Hamilton passes Webber into turn 1 and cruises to the victory.

Yes Yes Yes [-o<

I doubt it though. I just hope Lewis has the pace to fight the Red Bulls all the way.

[aero expert 807]

My prediction: Gap from leader:
1.Vettel
2.Alonso -2 seconds
3.Hamilton -10 seconds
4.Webber -12 seconds

[foxmulder_ms]

I want a Alonso-Vettel crush

[alogoc]

Your calculations are similar to those made by James Beck. He developed IntelligentF1 data simulation model and its usually pretty accurate.

Will see how accurate it will be this time

Korean Grand Prix: Friday Practice Analysis

And so to Korea. It may be close between Alonso and Vettel in the championship, and the Red Bulls may have locked out the front row, but the Friday practice suggests that in race trim it is the Ferrari that is the fastest car. I’ve seen some reports which suggest that Jenson Button did the fastest race stint in FP2. I don’t agree – I have the red cars all the way. Which bodes well for an entertaining race.

As usual, although I have struggled to get this done on some recent race weekends, I’ve fitted the long run data using the intelligentF1 model to get out the underlying pace of each car as shown in Friday practice. This has usually been a very good indicator of the Sunday performance, although not always! For those who are used to reading the charts, I’ve put the laps (missing out slow laps) on the chart below. The steeper the upward gradient, the faster the car. And the red lines (Ferrari) are at the top.



It’s worth noting that there is no useful data for Hamilton, the Saubers, Maldonado the Marussias, the HRTs and Kovalainen. The rest of them stack up like this:
Alonso +0.0s
Button/Massa +0.3s
Di Resta +0.5s
Vettel/Raikkonen +0.7s
Grosjean/Hulkenburg +0.8s
Webber +1.0s
Senna +1.1s
Rosberg +1.5s
Ricciardo +1.6s
Schumacher +1.8s
Vergne +2.2s
Petrov +2.4s

So it looks good for Ferrari and (to some extent) McLaren, and it does seem that the Red Bulls are unlikely to run away with it. In fact, I don’t think that they are favourites unless they are holding something in hand. The pace of the Lotus and Force India cars are good – Di Resta will be very disappointed at being only 14th on the grid as points beckon again. Once again the Mercedes seem to be quite disappointing on Friday – they tend to do a little better in the races, but their tyre wear was poor in comparison with the others. I guess they’ll still be in the battle for the minor points places.

The tyre wear is light here – the stints are clearly increasing in pace unless you are Petrov or driving a Mercedes – and it is rarely as clear as this. Two stops were the norm last year, and I think we’ll see something similar, probably with the supersoft as the favoured race tyre. Pirelli have said that one-stoppers are possible. Quite something when we remember that the doomsayers were predicting five stops last year. How things change.

There is evidence to suggest that the Ferrari and the Williams are again good on their tyres – I can see the blue cars going for a single stop. I guess that we may expect something similar from Perez. What would be fun is if Ferrari went for it with Massa – it might just win him the race.

CCCCCCCCCOOOOOOOOMMMMMEEEEEEEE OOOONNNN AAALLLLOOOONNNNSSSSOOOOO!!!!



*another quality post from JimClarkFan*

i heard RB was doing sim of first race stint while Ferrari second stint!

[SamH123]

RB were using the supersoft though for that practice stint
It's unlikely they will be on supersofts for their 2nd stint tomorrow so I don't see why they would practice on the SSs

It is very possible though - would be a little random if RB are slower than the Ferraris tomorrow