Moose wrote:lets talk about the race.
My bet would be that if Hamilton makes it into the first corner in the lead, he'll win. If Vettel makes it into the first corner in the lead, Hamilton will have no ability to pass the faster-in-a-straight-line Ferrari.
I am looking forward to the start of this race, especially how things will pan out there past the first couple of corners.
it's important for Vettel to be in front of Rosberg to benefit most from the race, so that's where their main focus will be at the start. indeed - Ferrari has a higher straight line speed. Vettel could engage all his 'ERS' at the first corners to protect himself well in regards to Rosberg.
Rosberg seems more frustrated compared to last year and lost some of his craft, imho that was visible during the qualy debriefing. His 'move' on Lewis imho wasn't that big of a deal though, could have went aside for lewis more, but it's not like he made life hard on him.
Rosberg said his goal is to overtake Vettel, and he's on the 'better part of the track' ['grippier']. Still, he's behind Seb and Rosberg's starts aren't always that 100%, rather 99.98% [to please the fanboys lol].
Vettel has a good race start history and has a free run to first corner - if i understand correctly, we're looking out for a wet race start. Which only enhances my feelings Ferrari's tactics with Vettel will be as following:
maintain 2nd at the first corner, use as many ERS as possible to keep in front of Nico, keep as close to Hamilton as possible to maintain within a one-second window so he can benefit from DRS when and IF it gets available during the race. The higher topspeed advantage surely will play out well for Ferrari's possibilities there.
position his car to make it very difficult for Nico to overtake during corners and then focus on using speed to keep in front of Nico's Merc, and hope for chaos and hungry drivers behind to make life difficult for a -frustrated- nico.
During pitstops, have Kimi out as long as possible so he can 'hold back' Nico or Lewis if either one of them pits and end behind him [shouldn't be too much of a task from P11] so Vettel can try to use tactics to overtake Lewis and keep in front of Nico, with the benefit fresher tires. Then Kimi can come in.
Kimi either needs one of his bold eau-rouge moves to swerve around the tight pack in front of him on first corner, but i'd think he'd rather keep out of the chaos and avoid damage, especially for their prospects with Vettel. Kimi's best chance is 4th but it would take luck and effort, whilst it's comparitavely easier to use tactics to get Vettel 1st or 2nd and have Kimi 5th or 6th. Either way, 5th or 6th is a reality and reasonable for Kimi, and so is 2nd for Vettel with the hope for 1st with some daring and hard work. At worst case scenario, Vettel ends up 3rd and Kimi 6th.
Still, crazy wet = crazy race = unpredictable.
Meanwhile, there could be a first-corner collision between Ricciardo and Rosberg.
I'll go ahead and say it
Wet race
1. Sebastian Vettel
2. Lewis Hamilton
3. Max Verstappen
let's have such a crazy race.