2019 Monaco Grand Prix - Monte Carlo, May 23-26

[iotar__]

This is a list of the best S3 times from Barcelona with a linear regression to predict 2019 Monaco qualifying times:

https://i.redd.it/lc9c1t505ez21.png

Credit to /u/jcp2010 on Reddit F1. According 2017 and 2018 data, Barcelona S3 times account for about 71% of the variation in best Monaco qualifying times.

I'm just not convinced that the S3 "chicane" times are that relevant to Monaco. Yes, it's twisty and narrow and probably the best relevant indication we have on who might be strong and who won't be in Monaco, but -

1.)
They are not going to be racing on the same tire compounds. C3 (Barcelona) vs C5 (Monaco). Different compounds will yield very different results on what is a track that basically comes down to pure mechanical grip.

2.)
The amount of grip cars had at a chicane at Barcelona are predicated by what happened in the two very different sectors before at Barcelona. Most cars fought with overheating tires when they came up to the chicane as a result of the track layout at Barcelona. Those cars who had better control over their tires also ended up with better grip at the chicane. My hunch is that both Ferrari and RedBull especially fought with this. Barcelona is all about the high speed corners so most cars will have been set-up to cater for those, not that one anomaly, the chicane at the end.

3.)
The setup of most cars will be very different at Monaco, set up for a track completely reliant on mechanical grip and very bumpy and very different asphalt.

Now, I'm not saying Mercedes won't be the team to beat. They probably will be, because the Mercedes obviously is a very very good car and if it has shown us any thing so far, it's that it has been excellent on all tires so far. Having said that, I think it will be very close and I wouldn't be surprised if perhaps RedBull or Ferrari ace the set-up. If there is one track they could get away with their aero-design choice, it's at a track where aero is pretty irrelevant (Monaco).

Having said that - Monaco has always rewarded the bold and fearless. I wouldn't be surprised to see Max very strong here, also Leclerc (maybe) and I think Hamilton goes usually pretty well too.

My 2 cents.

Didn’t Ferrari admit that their Barcelona setup was using their maximum downforce. That doesn’t bode well around the twisty Monaco circuit.

- Barcelona is in a group of max downforce tracks, first one of the seaon. I don't know what they meant but it could be just that, max DF package but for obviously specific track. Dreaded corner performance is a different story.
- Softest tyres should be added to the predictions equation, no idea who would benefit.
- Are Mercedes still at disadvantage with their length/wheelbase? Doesn't matter, I'm done with betting on Ferrari Mercedes - the quickest.
- As for the drivers, neither from top 3 teams is a Monaco specialist, exception is Leclerc - just like with most things we don't know enough about him.

[digitalrurouni]

I really dislike this track. I don't see the point of it.

I really like it, it's a classic grand prix since 1929 -- to discontinue it would be a real pity!

Better 10 Monaco GP than 1 Sochi GP!

Classic doesn't mean good. Or entertaining. I don't like Sochi either. But I think you meant to say 10 Sochi is better than 1 Monaco. Quality over quantity I understand what you are saying. I dislike Sochi too.

[digitalrurouni]

Which one, Verstappen on Pole or Ricciardo in the top 6?

Verstappen

Fair enough - personally I think he can grab pole as long as he doesnt put his car in the fence.

I also gotta side with f1jcw on this one. It's a Mercedes track now especially after Barcelona's performance. Max will be on podium. It will be another Mercedes 1-2. Ferrari will take 4 and 6 with Gasly splitting them. Now the interesting part is who will be 4 and 6. I think LeClerc will finish ahead of Vettel. That's my prediction. Let's see how wrong I am!

[Jolle]

Last year, Verstappen's crash was some kind of turning point in his career. Since then, he has grown impressively. This might of course come all crashing down again... but I think/hope he will keep it cool until Q3 this year.

Monaco is also a track where you can't be too eager, the track has to come to you during the weekend. I half expect Bottas to slip up building up to qualifying and maybe Leclerc as well. Good Saturday battle between Vettel, Hamilton and Verstappen.

[JPBD1990]

Can’t wait for the Mercedes 1-2 this weekend. I wonder which one will win?! What a thrill

[NathanOlder]

Can’t wait for the Mercedes 1-2 this weekend. I wonder which one will win?! What a thrill

Yup, will be nice for them to win for Niki. Glad your excited for it too.

[Seanspeed]

Didn’t Ferrari admit that their Barcelona setup was using their maximum downforce. That doesn’t bode well around the twisty Monaco circuit.

Downforce just isn't that important for Monaco. Teams run max downforce cuz there's no reason not to. There's nothing even remotely resembling a long straight, so you just whack all the downforce on you can, even if it's not necessarily bringing you a ton of laptime like it would at a normal track.

Basically, you cant say, "Oh Ferrari had max aero at Barcelona, which means they'll be bad at Monaco cuz they're using max downforce there, too". Obviously aero differences can still matter, especially with the often small time differences in qualifying, but it's not a great predictor of anything. Ferrari probably wont be good there either, but it'll be because of other reasons. Agility, traction and driver are bigger factors. And Ferrari are lacking in the first two categories by quite a bit.

[richardn]

Didn’t Ferrari admit that their Barcelona setup was using their maximum downforce. That doesn’t bode well around the twisty Monaco circuit.

Downforce just isn't that important for Monaco. Teams run max downforce cuz there's no reason not to. There's nothing even remotely resembling a long straight, so you just whack all the downforce on you can, even if it's not necessarily bringing you a ton of laptime like it would at a normal track.

Basically, you cant say, "Oh Ferrari had max aero at Barcelona, which means they'll be bad at Monaco cuz they're using max downforce there, too". Obviously aero differences can still matter, especially with the often small time differences in qualifying, but it's not a great predictor of anything. Ferrari probably wont be good there either, but it'll be because of other reasons. Agility, traction and driver are bigger factors. And Ferrari are lacking in the first two categories by quite a bit.

Here's what Frank Dernie was saying in 2014 (on another forum) about downforce at Monaco.

Downforce and engine drivability are all important at Monaco IME. It is surprising how much drag can be put up with for a bit more downforce there. The cars which can generate the most downforce have always been the fastest at Monaco. Mind you some drivers never sussed it, and talk about "mechanical grip".

There was a lot of time in optimising throttle mapping (driver M Schumacher) and I remember Prost asking "why does a bit more rear wing help traction so much in the hairpin?" He had sussed it by feel, so few drivers do. Quite a few engineers never twigged it either, that is why some people never win...

Nico has been impressively fast in Monaco every time he has been there. It will be interesting to see how they get on. Whoever gets pole will almost certainly win, as usual.

Yes, the driver probably has a slightly bigger influence at Monaco than at other tracks.
I would have expected McLaren to know about the aero and the fact that mechanical grip doesn't exist per se. Some teams/engineers do not though...
Prost was the first driver I worked with who sussed it for himself.

[Seanspeed]

Here's what Frank Dernie was saying in 2014 (on another forum) about downforce at Monaco.

No doubt aero can make a difference and certainly if there's a big discrepancy between downforce levels of cars it'll be more meaningful, but it's rarely gonna be the decider.

I think he's just generally saying the cars with the most downforce will be at the front, but this is also kind of misleading, cuz the cars with the most downforce are usually always gonna be the best teams and will have the rest of their car sorted well, too.

I also really doubt he figured out a 'trick' that so many other F1 teams and drivers didn't. As if 'more downforce' is somehow some secret of the sport that only a few could figure out.

I think agility is really something of the decider these past few years. Now that the cars are longer, this seems to affect the competitive order depending on how extreme you take it. Ferrari were fastest in 2017, then only 2nd fastest in 2018 when they switched to a long wheelbase car(which lost all its hyperagility from the year before), with Mercedes struggling both years with a particularly long wheelbase(even though we know they have great downforce). I would still put Red Bull as favorites this year for this reason, though it's possible Mercedes have simply upped their game enough elsewhere to overcome this disadvantage.

[Big Mangalhit]

Can’t wait for the Mercedes 1-2 this weekend. I wonder which one will win?! What a thrill

Yup, will be nice for them to win for Niki. Glad your excited for it too.

Niki Lauda, the legendary Mercedes non-executive chairman.

(you're* btw, it's not the possessive here)

[Morteza]

The run-off area at T11 after tunel exit has been coated with high grip material. See the comparison with standard tarmac.





Via @AlbertFabrega

[Restomaniac]

Didn’t Ferrari admit that their Barcelona setup was using their maximum downforce. That doesn’t bode well around the twisty Monaco circuit.

Downforce just isn't that important for Monaco. Teams run max downforce cuz there's no reason not to. There's nothing even remotely resembling a long straight, so you just whack all the downforce on you can, even if it's not necessarily bringing you a ton of laptime like it would at a normal track.

Basically, you cant say, "Oh Ferrari had max aero at Barcelona, which means they'll be bad at Monaco cuz they're using max downforce there, too". Obviously aero differences can still matter, especially with the often small time differences in qualifying, but it's not a great predictor of anything. Ferrari probably wont be good there either, but it'll be because of other reasons. Agility, traction and driver are bigger factors. And Ferrari are lacking in the first two categories by quite a bit.

You’re kind of splitting hairs there.

Ferrari’s whole concept is around straight line speed. That much is obvious. So their maximum DF setup is nowhere near as good as Mercerdes’ maximum DF setup around corners (who have later braking into and earlier traction out of corners). Ferrari’s extra straight line speed will never get a look in at Monaco.

[zibby43]

Can’t wait for the Mercedes 1-2 this weekend. I wonder which one will win?! What a thrill

Yup, will be nice for them to win for Niki. Glad your excited for it too.

Niki Lauda, the legendary Mercedes non-executive chairman.

(you're* btw, it's not the possessive here)

When Mercedes-AMG F1 won their first Constructor's title in 2014, in a team meeting, Niki told the team that the title meant more to him than any of his personal Driver's titles.

So, I wouldn't underrate his value and importance to the team. That would be a mistake.

[Jolle]

looks like Bottas was on Hamilton's Christmas list

[Just_a_fan]

Downforce just isn't that important for Monaco. Teams run max downforce cuz there's no reason not to. There's nothing even remotely resembling a long straight, so you just whack all the downforce on you can, even if it's not necessarily bringing you a ton of laptime like it would at a normal track.

You've got that backwards. You would always run as much downforce as you can. The only reason you run less than maximum is if a straight is long enough that the associated drag is an issue. If no straights existed that presented a drag penalty, you'd run maximum downforce at every track.

Minimum lap time is provided by maximising corner speeds, not top speed on straights (except on track like Monza which are mostly straight with few corners).

Monaco will always benefit from more downforce, because downforce works at all speeds - the more you can add at low speed, the better, at Monaco.