COVID-19 could affect more races this year.

[strad]

Anyone who thinks "another flu" isn't scary doesn't realize

What people don't seem to get is that your seasonal flu has killed over 20,000 people in the U.S. this year alone.
IF you have compromised health then any flu can be deadly.

[nevill3]

I heard a report on the radio today that the UK can expect the infection rates to increase dramatically over the coming weeks but the peak should be reached in 10 to 14 weeks. It was suggested that it was not if the bulk of the population would become infected but when.

[Phil]

That is a mortality rate of ~ 7%

They probably only test severe cases, so the number is inflated. But no doubt, the situation is not good. Especially the number of ICU patients.

Just looking at the number of “closed” cases is scary enough, given the converging rate of deaths vs recovered and the outcome of the rest still unclear.

People should go back 14 days to what Italy was at the point rest of Europe is now. Fatality rate is yet to go up in all our countries once those that are infected have gone through the stages of the illness and as more cases surface, the less resources will be around to help.

2 weeks ago, most of us were going by daily life and our usual business.

[nzjrs]

Anyone who thinks "another flu" isn't scary doesn't realize

What people don't seem to get is that your seasonal flu has killed over 20,000 people in the U.S. this year alone.
IF you have compromised health then any flu can be deadly.

You confuse people disagreeing with you as "not getting it".

[AMG.Tzan]

Nice...every single motorsport event around the world has been cancelled!

IndyCar is still going ahead this weekend!

No...they also cancelled everything through April!

[Big Tea]

That is a mortality rate of ~ 7%

They probably only test severe cases, so the number is inflated. But no doubt, the situation is not good. Especially the number of ICU patients.

Just looking at the number of “closed” cases is scary enough, given the converging rate of deaths vs recovered and the outcome of the rest still unclear.

People should go back 14 days to what Italy was at the point rest of Europe is now. Fatality rate is yet to go up in all our countries once those that are infected have gone through the stages of the illness and as more cases surface, the less resources will be around to help.

2 weeks ago, most of us were going by daily life and our usual business.

For the early part of the outbreak the services will not be overloaded and specialist beds will be available for a higher % of needy cases, but as numbers go up, the line between needing specialise beds and those not getting them will lower so more and more will not be treated as the facilities are plain not available.
Probably many of those that die in later days would have survived if the services were as available as in early cases.

[henry]

They probably only test severe cases, so the number is inflated. But no doubt, the situation is not good. Especially the number of ICU patients.

Just looking at the number of “closed” cases is scary enough, given the converging rate of deaths vs recovered and the outcome of the rest still unclear.

People should go back 14 days to what Italy was at the point rest of Europe is now. Fatality rate is yet to go up in all our countries once those that are infected have gone through the stages of the illness and as more cases surface, the less resources will be around to help.

2 weeks ago, most of us were going by daily life and our usual business.

For the early part of the outbreak the services will not be overloaded and specialist beds will be available for a higher % of needy cases, but as numbers go up, the line between needing specialise beds and those not getting them will lower so more and more will not be treated as the facilities are plain not available.
Probably many of those that die in later days would have survived if the services were as available as in early cases.

Your analysis tells us what we need to do.

Those of us at higher risk need to work hard at not being exposed to potential carriers.

Those at lower risk need to work hard at not infecting those at higher risk.

[Big Tea]

Just looking at the number of “closed” cases is scary enough, given the converging rate of deaths vs recovered and the outcome of the rest still unclear.

People should go back 14 days to what Italy was at the point rest of Europe is now. Fatality rate is yet to go up in all our countries once those that are infected have gone through the stages of the illness and as more cases surface, the less resources will be around to help.

2 weeks ago, most of us were going by daily life and our usual business.

For the early part of the outbreak the services will not be overloaded and specialist beds will be available for a higher % of needy cases, but as numbers go up, the line between needing specialise beds and those not getting them will lower so more and more will not be treated as the facilities are plain not available.
Probably many of those that die in later days would have survived if the services were as available as in early cases.

Your analysis tells us what we need to do.

Those of us at higher risk need to work hard at not being exposed to potential carriers.

Those at lower risk need to work hard at not infecting those at higher risk.

Again, far easier to do early in the outbreak. As time goes on people get more used to the 'risk' and get sloppy or inattentive. Its human nature that urgency wears off with time.

[marmer]

For the early part of the outbreak the services will not be overloaded and specialist beds will be available for a higher % of needy cases, but as numbers go up, the line between needing specialise beds and those not getting them will lower so more and more will not be treated as the facilities are plain not available.
Probably many of those that die in later days would have survived if the services were as available as in early cases.

Your analysis tells us what we need to do.

Those of us at higher risk need to work hard at not being exposed to potential carriers.

Those at lower risk need to work hard at not infecting those at higher risk.

Again, far easier to do early in the outbreak. As time goes on people get more used to the 'risk' and get sloppy or inattentive. Its human nature that urgency wears off with time.

This could well end up being compounded by the fact that it doesn't seem to be that serious for most of the population. And it's ability to spread before showing symptoms makes it very difficult to stop spreading to the high risk people. You could easily end up with a situation next winter if this is seasonal were people who got it this time round basically don't care as feel they won't be that badly affected

[PlatinumZealot]

Would Govts of the world be less worried about COVID-19 if the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918-20 hadn't happened?

Would Govts of the world have reacted as they have if coronavirus had quietly slipped out of Wuhan province?

Is the similarity between COVID-19 and SARS the real worry for Govts? SARS had a high mortality rate - up around 10%. MERS, of course, was much higher at about 33%.

I may be showing my cynical side here, but I suspect the governments of the world would be less worried if we didn't have social media spreading so much hysteria and the mass media feeding that hysteria. After all, in most countries they want to keep getting elected and so are reacting as the public demands to some extent.

I'm actually in favour of the British government approach of allowing some spread to help develop herd immunity and focusing efforts on slowing the spread and protecting at risk groups to limit mortality.

The problem with the China and Italy models is that you don't build immunity and can see a secondary spread when everyone comes out of isolation and there is still a small number of carriers there.

Some virsuses have long term effects in the body so it's best not to get it at all.

[Pyrone89]

And the world economy crashing at a rate faster than in the big crisis of 2008, after which Honda, BMW, Renault and Toyota left is also looming. Basically this could mean RB and Merc pulling out and the Ferrari drivers suddenly sitting in the most wanted seat. Verstappen will then be kicking himself for commenting on Ferrari.

[langedweil]

And the world economy crashing at a rate faster than in the big crisis of 2008, after which Honda, BMW, Renault and Toyota left is also looming. Basically this could mean RB and Merc pulling out and the Ferrari drivers suddenly sitting in the most wanted seat. Verstappen will then be kicking himself for commenting on Ferrari.

Yeah, well in that scenario you'd have a 4 car Ferrari/Alfa championship.
I've seen rocks that were vastly more interesting than that ...

[LM10]

That is a mortality rate of ~ 7%

They probably only test severe cases, so the number is inflated. But no doubt, the situation is not good. Especially the number of ICU patients.

Just looking at the number of “closed” cases is scary enough, given the converging rate of deaths vs recovered and the outcome of the rest still unclear.

People should go back 14 days to what Italy was at the point rest of Europe is now. Fatality rate is yet to go up in all our countries once those that are infected have gone through the stages of the illness and as more cases surface, the less resources will be around to help.

2 weeks ago, most of us were going by daily life and our usual business.

Number of deaths divided by number of closed cases will, in the first phase, be an overestimation and show very high fatality rates. Death appears much faster than recovery, especially when a patient is called recovered only after 2 negative tests which seems to be the case as of yet.
On the other hand, number of deaths divided by number of total cases will be an underestimation obviously. So the real number will be something in between.
But I absolutely agree with you on the scary part and I totally think that very strict measurements are needed. The faster the better. Even a 1 day sooner or later social distancing will have a very big effect - in numbers 40% less cases after 14 days!

This article is where I have that number from. It's a very detailed analysis on the spread of cases, effect of measurements (especially asian countries with 2003 SARS experience vs. western countries), estimated death rates etc. Highly recommended.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca

[mmred]

They probably only test severe cases, so the number is inflated. But no doubt, the situation is not good. Especially the number of ICU patients.

Just looking at the number of “closed” cases is scary enough, given the converging rate of deaths vs recovered and the outcome of the rest still unclear.

People should go back 14 days to what Italy was at the point rest of Europe is now. Fatality rate is yet to go up in all our countries once those that are infected have gone through the stages of the illness and as more cases surface, the less resources will be around to help.

2 weeks ago, most of us were going by daily life and our usual business.

Number of deaths divided by number of closed cases will, in the first phase, be an overestimation and show very high fatality rates. Death appears much faster than recovery, especially when a patient is called recovered only after 2 negative tests which seems to be the case as of yet.
On the other hand, number of deaths divided by number of total cases will be an underestimation obviously. So the real number will be something in between.
But I absolutely agree with you on the scary part and I totally think that very strict measurements are needed. The faster the better. Even a 1 day sooner or later social distancing will have a very big effect - in numbers 40% less cases after 14 days!

This article is where I have that number from. It's a very detailed analysis on the spread of cases, effect of measurements (especially asian countries with 2003 SARS experience vs. western countries), estimated death rates etc. Highly recommended.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca

Nobody Is trying to stop the virus, every measure Is merely trying to delay It in order to contain the numbers, for months, to an acceptable level by healthcare standards

Who doesnt do that Is not counting on herd immunization, everyone Is counting on herd immunization if the vaccine doesnt come before those Natural percentage numbers are reached, Who doesnt limit the spread of the disease Is Just doing nothing for a very temporary economical benefit that Will lead either to a sanitary collapse either to increased death percentage due to healthcare failure or both

Kimi Vettel and MayBe later Charles and even Hamilton leaving track before the race was officially cancelled, Ferrari not even entering the track Tells us that some had Better perception than others and leaded the rest to a safer solution.

[sosic2121]

Maybe Chinese GP could be held after all.

It seems virus is contained in China, number of active cases is falling, and number of newly infected is around 20 daily and also falling.