2019 performance speculation

[Big Tea]

So Toto and Maurizio could be sitting in their office reading Marko say "Red Bull have managed to recoup all of the downforce lost as a result of the new front wing" and they are thinking, wow, Red Bull only just got to that point ?! We were there 3 months ago
Just because Ferrari/Merc haven't said anything, doesn't mean they haven't done it.

(Toto shouts)
Hay, see this? someone 'leak' on twitter we now have 1250 HP, that will make em rush

[NathanOlder]

So Toto and Maurizio could be sitting in their office reading Marko say "Red Bull have managed to recoup all of the downforce lost as a result of the new front wing" and they are thinking, wow, Red Bull only just got to that point ?! We were there 3 months ago
Just because Ferrari/Merc haven't said anything, doesn't mean they haven't done it.

(Toto shouts)
Hay, see this? someone 'leak' on twitter we now have 1250 HP, that will make em rush

It wouldn't work though, Marko would just come out and say Honda are now 500HP ahead of Renault and that Renault were around 900HP at the end of 2018.

[Vasconia]

I don´t think that Honda will have such a big boost in power and reliability to make RB a champion car but who knows.

I think new aero regulations will benefit more Mercedes than Ferrari so I expect Mercedes to be stronger. I hope I am wrong though. McLaren will improve significantly with all they have learned this year and two Young and fast drivers ready to push in the same direction.

So....
1. Mercedes
2. Ferrari
---
3. Red Bull
----
----
4. Renault
5. Mclaren/Haas
6. Force India/Williams
7. Toro Rosso.

[Big Tea]

I expect a closer grouping next year. Red bull pulling closer to Merc and Ferrari, not quite there,but a definite threat , while the 'second group' will close up. Mclaren and Williams have to improve, or go under.

So I expect

1. Mercedes slight edge over Ferrari with Red Bull taking a few wins and consistent podiums, so if they gather enough points, and the big two take from eachother, RBR may be there abouts in the table should something unexpected happen.

Cannot see a Red Bull driver challenging for the drivers championship though.

Renault and Force India leading this group but not dominant
I expect Mclaren to be here or here abouts,

Williams, Haas, Toro Rosso will be the lower mid field, not stragglers and picking up points regular.

Right, thats put the jinx on everyone, who else can I screw up

[AMG.Tzan]

Why is everyone forgetting Alfa Romeo - Sauber for some reason?? I expect them to be closer to the midfield with Renault Hass and Force India (4th-6th)! At the top pretty much the same as 2018...maybe a bit closer! At the bottom again Williams and Toro Rosso...and about McLaren...hmm who knows...somewhere in between midfield and bottom

[TAG]

Toro Rosso will be bringing up the rear next year.

[Phil]

I wouldnt be surprised to see Force India go backwards. Not convinced on Stroll yet and the team has to show how well they can manage with a higher budget. Meanwhile, i expect both Haas and Sauber to be strong.

I dont think McLaren will make a huge jump. Neither will Williams (IMO).

[Big Tea]

Why is everyone forgetting Alfa Romeo - Sauber for some reason?? I expect them to be closer to the midfield with Renault Hass and Force India (4th-6th)! At the top pretty much the same as 2018...maybe a bit closer! At the bottom again Williams and Toro Rosso...and about McLaren...hmm who knows...somewhere in between midfield and bottom

Ah yes, I did forget about them. I filled in the rest first as I could not make up my mind about Sauber/Alfa.

I still cannot, so will stick them with the main lower group. I don't know what Kimi can do compared to the driver that replaces him at Ferrari, but I have to put them somewhere.

[LM10]

I think new aero regulations will benefit more Mercedes than Ferrari so I expect Mercedes to be stronger. I hope I am wrong though. McLaren will improve significantly with all they have learned this year and two Young and fast drivers ready to push in the same direction.

Why do you think that? Just curious, if you have any technical thoughts on why.

[nevill3]

My personal speculation would be that McLaren will jump back to the top of the field to replace RedBull in third spot. They obviously have been developing next years car almost as long as Williams have.

Red Bull may slip down the pecking order due to "learning how to maximize" the potential of the new Honda engine. The gearing and mapping will take a little time to extract 100% performance as well as optimizing the packaging of the new engine and its cooling (this is where McLaren failed this year) and Honda will once again be under increased pressure to help deliver results for a front running team after a year of experimenting.

Racing Point, or whatever they end up being called, may well struggle too. Reports of increased spending within the team by hiring new experts to fill holes does not always result in increased performance straight away as the new staff have to learn how to interact with the established members and can often cause unintended eddies in the smooth flowing processes they find themselves in. Just look at what happened to Williams this year after Paddy's influence began to assert itself and they abandoned the "low drag concept they had run for years" .

Renault are the dark horses this year, steady progress just like Mercedes had when they first returned, building the foundations for dominance slowly. Maybe another 12 months before they burst to the front though but they have the drivers capable of delivering strong results should they manage to design a winning car. Their story is mirroring the Mercedes story even down to poaching a driver from a top team and everybody asking the question why?

Mercedes and Ferrari will once again be setting the pace at the front, even if they get things slightly wrong at the start they both can out-develop almost everybody else to ensure they stay at the front.

Torro Rosso will benefit from greater input from the mothership regarding suspension, gearbox and engine so should be quicker once the Honda engine is capable of matching the others in both performance and reliability.

Sauber has fewer money troubles next year and are capable delivering an outstanding chassis so look to improve too.

Haas is learning all the time but I think they have peaked for now and may well struggle to match last years results.

Williams will surprise everyone at first, they have been designing and developing their new chassis for ages. The Stroll and Martini money would have paid for next years car but development throughout the year may be curtailed once the season gets underway due to reduced funding.

Overall, winter testing can not come soon enough I anticipate many predictions just like mine to wide of the mark and next year will surprise us all.

[Restomaniac]

I don't think we have any idea what Honda will have next season.

They've basically been able to use TR as a test bed in GP conditions for most of the season.

They could have been trying all sorts of ideas at various times, and designed an absolute monster with the data they've gathered. Or, what they've been putting in the car is the best they've got.

I know Marko and Horner seem to be saying they've seen the figures and it's all good, but I don't trust either of them to tell me the correct time. Marko especially. I don't read any "story" where a Marko comment/interview is the source.

However, I know I'll be pretty happy regardless of how well anybody does next year:

Mercedes - I like both HAM and BOT.
Ferrari - Come on! It's Ferrari!
Red Bull - Will GAS yield for VER? Can VER keep his nose clean? I want redemption for Honda.
Renault - DAN! And how will he and Hulk compare? I want Hulk on the podium.
Force India - Please stay alive. The grid needs you.
Haas - I'd like to see a US owned team on the podium.
Sauber - Go Kimi! Be allowed to race.
TR - More Honda redemption.
Maclaren and Willams - How the mighty have fallen. A good showing from these long time contributors to F1 can only be a good thing.

I suppose I like an underdog, and just REALLY like racing and the people who make it possible for me to watch.

With regard to what people say. Someone once said that the Honda PU was a piece of Jewellery. Talk is cheap and it’s just that ATM.

[AJI]

With regard to what people say. Someone once said that the Honda PU was a piece of Jewellery. Talk is cheap and it’s just that ATM.

I believe it was RD, and his choice of words was excellent. That PU was pretty and fragile and served very little purpose...

[TAG]

Well of course Red Bull is going to say Honda is good, otherwise they'd look like chumps. Likewise with McLaren. Who knows if we'll get the truth.

[Phil]

Well of course Red Bull is going to say Honda is good, otherwise they'd look like chumps. Likewise with McLaren. Who knows if we'll get the truth.

No they wouldnt. If they did and were raising false expectations, they’d have a lot to explain next year. If they thought Honda is gonna be bad, they would be down playing expectations.

[TAG]

They both can't be right, so I'm looking forward to figuring who's got the egg all over their face.