2015 Malaysian Grand Prix - Sepang

[Kiril Varbanov]

Both Ferrari drivers are clearly ahead with Vettel certainly winning the Driver of the day - http://www.f1technical.net/poll/index.php?dispid=293

Meanwhile, the race edit is live: http://www.formula1.com/content/fom-web ... ia_15.html

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Let's not forget that with Merc stopping more times - they had more tyre life and could push more. Ferrari would have been pushing less. On that day in history in Malaysia - I think Ferrari had Merc covered. Even without the safety car, Ferrari could still do an OOP (extrapolating backwards from the number of laps they did in their 2nd and 3rd stints) - whereas Merc would not have done an OOP. they were even struggling to get through OPP after the safety car. OPOO or OPOP was probably the best they could have hoped for.

The chassis may not be as fast as the Merc's - that is to say, on tyres with an equal amount of life remaining, the Merc would be quicker over a lap. But the fact is they cannot sustain that performance - and on average ended up slower.

Note: Excluding the safety car laps.

Vettel did 12 laps (Medium), all within 1.46.XXX in the first stint (Average 1:46.450).
second stint 19 laps (Medium) - 1:44.4 - 1:45.7 (Average 1:45.226)
third stint 18 laps (Hard) - 1:43.7 - 1:44.7 (Average 1:44.110)

Hamilton did 3 laps in first stint in 1:46.XXX
second stint -
3 laps in traffic 1:48.285, 1:47.999, 1:48.076 (So, he lost almost 5 seconds to Vettel behind traffic)
14 laps in clear air 1:46.8 - 1:47.4 (Average 1:46.664 - While Vettel was doing the same time on quali Mediums first stint, Lewis was doing it on new hards on second stint)
third stint 12 laps in the range of 1:44.0 - 1:45.6 (Average - 1:44.571 - Vettel on his second stint on mediums and lewis third stint on mediums)
fourth stint (Vettel on his third stint on new hard and Lewis on new hard too)
15 laps 1:43.1 - 1:44.5 (Average - 1:43.774)
2 laps 1:45.0 - 1:46.1
It is my assumption that in the last couple of laps Lewis gave up and his times suddenly dropped from 1:44.4 to 1:46.1.
Looking at this dissection, nothing really tells me that Mercs had any worse tyre usage than Ferrari. Times were dropping in similar pattern. It was Merc who screwed it with strategy. Ferrari used 2 Mediums and one hard and Merc used 1 Medium (considering they wasted 1 set of mediums they started with, with just 3 laps) and 2 hards.

Ferrari did a good job of matching the pace and taking advantage of Merc's strategy error. Merc didn't show confidence in their race sim times. If they would have just sticked to the same strategy of Ferrari, Merc could have definitely won this.

[Chene_Mostert]

Let's not forget that with Merc stopping more times - they had more tyre life and could push more. Ferrari would have been pushing less. On that day in history in Malaysia - I think Ferrari had Merc covered. Even without the safety car, Ferrari could still do an OOP (extrapolating backwards from the number of laps they did in their 2nd and 3rd stints) - whereas Merc would not have done an OOP. they were even struggling to get through OPP after the safety car. OPOO or OPOP was probably the best they could have hoped for.

The chassis may not be as fast as the Merc's - that is to say, on tyres with an equal amount of life remaining, the Merc would be quicker over a lap. But the fact is they cannot sustain that performance - and on average ended up slower.

Note: Excluding the safety car laps.

Vettel did 12 laps (Medium), all within 1.46.XXX in the first stint (Average 1:46.450).
second stint 19 laps (Medium) - 1:44.4 - 1:45.7 (Average 1:45.226)
third stint 18 laps (Hard) - 1:43.7 - 1:44.7 (Average 1:44.110)

Hamilton did 3 laps in first stint in 1:46.XXX
second stint -
3 laps in traffic 1:48.285, 1:47.999, 1:48.076 (So, he lost almost 5 seconds to Vettel behind traffic)
14 laps in clear air 1:46.8 - 1:47.4 (Average 1:46.664 - While Vettel was doing the same time on quali Mediums first stint, Lewis was doing it on new hards on second stint)
third stint 12 laps in the range of 1:44.0 - 1:45.6 (Average - 1:44.571 - Vettel on his second stint on mediums and lewis third stint on mediums)
fourth stint (Vettel on his third stint on new hard and Lewis on new hard too)
15 laps 1:43.1 - 1:44.5 (Average - 1:43.774)
2 laps 1:45.0 - 1:46.1
It is my assumption that in the last couple of laps Lewis gave up and his times suddenly dropped from 1:44.4 to 1:46.1.
Looking at this dissection, nothing really tells me that Mercs had any worse tyre usage than Ferrari. Times were dropping in similar pattern. It was Merc who screwed it with strategy. Ferrari used 2 Mediums and one hard and Merc used 1 Medium (considering they wasted 1 set of mediums they started with, with just 3 laps) and 2 hards.

Ferrari did a good job of matching the pace and taking advantage of Merc's strategy error. Merc didn't show confidence in their race sim times. If they would have just sticked to the same strategy of Ferrari, Merc could have definitely won this.

So you are saying Merc did not have the pace to catch Ferrari, so Lewis just gave up?

[FW17]

y is it that Marcus Ericsson did not get a push back to the race track?

[WaikeCU]

y is it that Marcus Ericsson did not get a push back to the race track?

This:

regarding the question about being pulled out of the gravel by marshals and continue the race:
if i rember correctly last season nico rosberg stopped becouse of gearbox problems and he forbid the marshals to touch the car. they said on orf1 that once the marshals touch your car you're out of the race.
unfortunately i can't remember which race it was

[evered7]

Note: Excluding the safety car laps.

Vettel: second stint 19 laps (Medium) - 1:44.4 - 1:45.7 (Average 1:45.226)

Hamilton: third stint 12 laps in the range of 1:44.0 - 1:45.6 (Average - 1:44.571 - Vettel on his second stint on mediums and lewis third stint on mediums)
Hamilton: fourth stint (Vettel on his third stint on new hard and Lewis on new hard too)
15 laps 1:43.1 - 1:44.5 (Average - 1:43.774)
2 laps 1:45.0 - 1:46.1
Looking at this dissection, nothing really tells me that Mercs had any worse tyre usage than Ferrari. Times were dropping

So Vettel takes 19 laps to get to 1:45.7 and Hamilton goes to 1:45.6 in 12 laps. Doesn't it show that Mercedes were having worse tire deg than Ferrari? If that was the case, Mercedes would have been overtaken on track during the first stint if there had not been an SC.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Note: Excluding the safety car laps.

Vettel: second stint 19 laps (Medium) - 1:44.4 - 1:45.7 (Average 1:45.226)

Hamilton: third stint 12 laps in the range of 1:44.0 - 1:45.6 (Average - 1:44.571 - Vettel on his second stint on mediums and lewis third stint on mediums)
Hamilton: fourth stint (Vettel on his third stint on new hard and Lewis on new hard too)
15 laps 1:43.1 - 1:44.5 (Average - 1:43.774)
2 laps 1:45.0 - 1:46.1
Looking at this dissection, nothing really tells me that Mercs had any worse tyre usage than Ferrari. Times were dropping

So Vettel takes 19 laps to get to 1:45.7 and Hamilton goes to 1:45.6 in 12 laps. Doesn't it show that Mercedes were having worse tire deg than Ferrari? If that was the case, Mercedes would have been overtaken on track during the first stint if there had not been an SC.

Prove that. Because as per Allison himself, with a tenth or two advantage, it would have been impossible to overtake.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Note: Excluding the safety car laps.

Vettel: second stint 19 laps (Medium) - 1:44.4 - 1:45.7 (Average 1:45.226)

Hamilton: third stint 12 laps in the range of 1:44.0 - 1:45.6 (Average - 1:44.571 - Vettel on his second stint on mediums and lewis third stint on mediums)
Hamilton: fourth stint (Vettel on his third stint on new hard and Lewis on new hard too)
15 laps 1:43.1 - 1:44.5 (Average - 1:43.774)
2 laps 1:45.0 - 1:46.1
Looking at this dissection, nothing really tells me that Mercs had any worse tyre usage than Ferrari. Times were dropping

So Vettel takes 19 laps to get to 1:45.7 and Hamilton goes to 1:45.6 in 12 laps. Doesn't it show that Mercedes were having worse tire deg than Ferrari? If that was the case, Mercedes would have been overtaken on track during the first stint if there had not been an SC.

http://www.fia.com/sites/default/files/ ... hart_0.pdf
Go through this and see how many times back markers were in front of Lewis, compared to Vettel. Even if backmarkers are blue flagged, it still costs some time for the guy overtaking.

[evered7]

So Vettel takes 19 laps to get to 1:45.7 and Hamilton goes to 1:45.6 in 12 laps. Doesn't it show that Mercedes were having worse tire deg than Ferrari? If that was the case, Mercedes would have been overtaken on track during the first stint if there had not been an SC.

Prove that. Because as per Allison himself, with a tenth or two advantage, it would have been impossible to overtake.

I am basing it on the fact that Mercedes are losing time quickly on those tires compared to Ferrari; meaning they will be slower quickly and the pace advantage will be bigger if Mercedes don't pit.

Also every car has to go through back-markers (remember Vettel singing Blue flags?). It is not exclusive to Hamilton. If he was only losing time to them & the tires had pace in them, the team wouldn't have made him stop at 12 laps.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

Let's not forget that with Merc stopping more times - they had more tyre life and could push more. Ferrari would have been pushing less. On that day in history in Malaysia - I think Ferrari had Merc covered. Even without the safety car, Ferrari could still do an OOP (extrapolating backwards from the number of laps they did in their 2nd and 3rd stints) - whereas Merc would not have done an OOP. they were even struggling to get through OPP after the safety car. OPOO or OPOP was probably the best they could have hoped for.

The chassis may not be as fast as the Merc's - that is to say, on tyres with an equal amount of life remaining, the Merc would be quicker over a lap. But the fact is they cannot sustain that performance - and on average ended up slower.

Note: Excluding the safety car laps.

Vettel did 12 laps (Medium), all within 1.46.XXX in the first stint (Average 1:46.450).
second stint 19 laps (Medium) - 1:44.4 - 1:45.7 (Average 1:45.226)
third stint 18 laps (Hard) - 1:43.7 - 1:44.7 (Average 1:44.110)

Hamilton did 3 laps in first stint in 1:46.XXX
second stint -
3 laps in traffic 1:48.285, 1:47.999, 1:48.076 (So, he lost almost 5 seconds to Vettel behind traffic)
14 laps in clear air 1:46.8 - 1:47.4 (Average 1:46.664 - While Vettel was doing the same time on quali Mediums first stint, Lewis was doing it on new hards on second stint)
third stint 12 laps in the range of 1:44.0 - 1:45.6 (Average - 1:44.571 - Vettel on his second stint on mediums and lewis third stint on mediums)
fourth stint (Vettel on his third stint on new hard and Lewis on new hard too)
15 laps 1:43.1 - 1:44.5 (Average - 1:43.774)
2 laps 1:45.0 - 1:46.1
It is my assumption that in the last couple of laps Lewis gave up and his times suddenly dropped from 1:44.4 to 1:46.1.
Looking at this dissection, nothing really tells me that Mercs had any worse tyre usage than Ferrari. Times were dropping in similar pattern. It was Merc who screwed it with strategy. Ferrari used 2 Mediums and one hard and Merc used 1 Medium (considering they wasted 1 set of mediums they started with, with just 3 laps) and 2 hards.

Ferrari did a good job of matching the pace and taking advantage of Merc's strategy error. Merc didn't show confidence in their race sim times. If they would have just sticked to the same strategy of Ferrari, Merc could have definitely won this.

So you are saying Merc did not have the pace to catch Ferrari, so Lewis just gave up?

In the last 2 laps at least, yes. By that time, the gap was around 10 seconds.

[GPR-A duplicate2]

So Vettel takes 19 laps to get to 1:45.7 and Hamilton goes to 1:45.6 in 12 laps. Doesn't it show that Mercedes were having worse tire deg than Ferrari? If that was the case, Mercedes would have been overtaken on track during the first stint if there had not been an SC.

Prove that. Because as per Allison himself, with a tenth or two advantage, it would have been impossible to overtake.

I am basing it on the fact that Mercedes are losing time quickly on those tires compared to Ferrari; meaning they will be slower quickly and the pace advantage will be bigger if Mercedes don't pit.

Also every car has to go through back-markers (remember Vettel singing Blue flags?). It is not exclusive to Hamilton. If he was only losing time to them & the tires had pace in them, the team wouldn't have made him stop at 12 laps.

Slower quicky, doesn't mean slower by a second or so and sitting ducks to be overtaken.
Of course every car has to go through back markers, but look at the times they have to go through and analyze how it adds to the woes of tyre life.

[evered7]

Slower quicky, doesn't mean slower by a second or so and sitting ducks to be overtaken.
Of course every car has to go through back markers, but look at the times they have to go through and analyze how it adds to the woes of tyre life.

He lost 1.6 seconds in 12 laps on lesser fuel than what would be at the start. That is every reason to believe his degradation would have been worse if he stayed out in the SC period.

On your second point, so Vettel would have gotten the same disadvantage as well like Hamilton while passing back markers I suppose?

The point is not that Mercedes weren't fast in Malaysia. They were, but couldn't sustain it. While Ferrari were a lil slower but were consistently in the same range, thus helping them win the race.

[WaikeCU]

So it's back like 2013 again. Fast over 1 lap, but some inconsistency over longer stints with bad tire degradation?

[evered7]

So it's back like 2013 again. Fast over 1 lap, but some inconsistency over longer stints with bad tire degradation?

I don't think it would be that extreme and a case in every circuit. But for Sepang, they got tire deg issues.

Also as much as Hamilton is skilled in wet weather driving, them being able to generate heat into the tires quickly would have certainly helped his cause in Q3. Vettel set an OK lap on first try and improved on his second lap to get provisional 3rd.

[raymondu999]

Vettel did 12 laps (Medium), all within 1.46.XXX in the first stint (Average 1:46.450).
second stint 19 laps (Medium) - 1:44.4 - 1:45.7 (Average 1:45.226)
third stint 18 laps (Hard) - 1:43.7 - 1:44.7 (Average 1:44.110)

So let's see the average loss
1s/12 laps in the first stint - average 0.083/lap (Medium)
1.3s/19 laps in the second stint - average 0.068/lap (Medium)
1s/18 laps in the final stint - average 0.056/lap (Hard)

Do you find anything wrong with my maths so far?

Hamilton did 3 laps in first stint in 1:46.XXX

Let's discount this stint as it is so short to really have a meaningful average deg. Same with the traffic laps - it would be unfair to Lewis.

14 laps in clear air 1:46.8 - 1:47.4 (Average 1:46.664 - While Vettel was doing the same time on quali Mediums first stint, Lewis was doing it on new hards on second stint)
third stint 12 laps in the range of 1:44.0 - 1:45.6 (Average - 1:44.571 - Vettel on his second stint on mediums and lewis third stint on mediums)
fourth stint (Vettel on his third stint on new hard and Lewis on new hard too)
15 laps 1:43.1 - 1:44.5 (Average - 1:43.774)
2 laps 1:45.0 - 1:46.1

2nd stint - 0.6/14 - average 0.043/lap (Hard)
3rd sint - 1.6/12 laps - average 0.133/lap (Medium)
4th stint - 1.4/15 - average 0.093 (taking only the 15 laps you mention as him pushing) (Hard)

Do you see anything wrong with my math so far?

Now what's a good number for fuel effect? Pre-2014 it was generally accepted to have 0.1/lap as fuel effect.

Now let's do the fuel effect numbers for Vettel.
1st stint - 12 laps is 1.2s then. So 1s dropoff, despite 1.2s fuel effect. 2.2s/12 laps = 0.183/lap (Medium)
2nd stint - 19 laps is 1.9s fuel effect. 1.3s dropoff + 1.9s fuel effect. 3.2s/19 laps = 0.168/lap (Medium)
3rd stint - 18 laps is 1.8s fuel effect. 1s dropoff + 1.8s fuel effect. 2.8s/18 laps = 0.156/lap (Hard)

Anything wrong with my maths so far?

Now for Lewis

2nd stint - 14 laps is 1.4s. 0.6 + 1.4 = 2. 2/14 = 0.143/lap (Hard)
3rd stint - 12 laps is 1.2s. 1.6 + 1.2 = 2.8. 2.8/12 = 0.233/lap (Medium)
4th stint - 15 laps is 1.5s. 1.4 + 1.7 = 3.1. 3.1/15 = 0.207/lap (Hard)

Other than the 2nd stint - where we see lower-than-normal deg compared to the other stints, then those numbers look pretty damning to me. Don't forget his 2nd stint would probably have had a lot faster peak pace if he hadn't been stuck in traffic - i.e. his tyres were already past their best when he was finally in free air, so the deg that happened during the clear air laps wasn't that great.