Could the RBR dominance slip up next year?

[tim|away]

I don't believe for a second that aero will become less significant in 2014. If we consider that the rules from 2012 and 2013 are almost identical, and that McLaren had the fastest car at the end of the season in 2012, I would argue that RedBull has worked on a lot of details rather than dramatic changes since 2012. As little as those details appear when looked at in isolation, put together they are responsible for RedBull dominating the field. Therefore, the sum of small details can indeed make a huge difference and I believe this will be the case in 2014 as well.

I also believe that engine manufacturers have a much bigger impact on aero than it might appear. It is true that a more powerful engine will compensate for higher drag wherefore you could run more downforce, but it's also true that an engine that runs hotter will allow desigers to design smaller sidepods and to pack everything more tightly - therefore reducing drag. It is always a trade-off and it will be interesting to see how things work out next season.

A key metric next season is almost certainly going to be reliability. In order to finish first, you need to finish first. I have a feeling that the fastest car might not necessarily lead the championship mid-season, but the car that is most consistent and found the right balance between speed and reliability. Whether or not Newey will be conservative enough with his approach shall be interesting to see.

[henra]

Aero is going to be a side issue next season. It's going to be a pure engine formula at least for 2014. As stated ad nauseum by Antony Davidson, an ERS failure next season and your race is over, let alone an issue with the engine itself.

Everyone who is anyone in the paddock believe for whatever reason that the Mercedes package is the one to have in which case RB will be hunting for scraps whilst the Mercs & FIs put their 3rd lap on them.

Wow, those are some bold Statements!
Is that whistling in the dark or do you really expect this to happen to that extent?

I'm completely with @Richard_leeds in that there may be Brief temporary turmoil of the pecking order but I'm sure that will settle quickly and the original strengths will start to shine through before mid -season.
And re: it's going to be a pure engine formula: No f***ing way!
An F1 car is an F1 car due to aerodynamics. That's what sets it apart from most racing series. And with less energy and HP aerodynamic efficiency will become even more important. Mabe not raw Downforce, but L/D ratio for sure.

[strad]

I've kept quiet, but I have to say that I think Red Bull will own next year even more solidly than they own this year.
I predict they will be at least a step ahead of the others in development.
Can't wait to see cause I can't wait for this FIAsco to be over.

[xpensive]

Could the RBR dominance slip up next year?

No, never, not in this lifetime, Vettel is bound to win the next 40 or 50 races.

[Spacepace]

The car will probably very much be like the RB9 but the car will be lacking rear downforce without the exhaust to seal that huge amount of rake they like to use. I see them struggling very much like they did in the beginning of 2012 but Newey will soon come up with something to balance the rear.

[autogyro]

Well Ross Brawn has just given up so I doubt RB will have a problem next year so long as Adrian keeps going.
I dont see anyone else at that level and Ferrari wont cut it with their commitee approach.
I believe Rory Byrn did input Ferrari for a little while this year but I cant see him getting properly involved again.
I think Patrick Head has also had enough.
F1 has been dominated by and large by clever computor nerds for decades now.
The few common sense engineers who have always led development in F1 are becoming very rare these days.
This is a result of the spec formula regulations that have destroyed innovation and the high tech industries as a whole that now demand high levels of computor skill defined within narrow and specialised applicational boxes.
I would no longer recommend F1 as a career choice, it is almost as boring now as aerospace.

[SectorOne]

I believe Rory Byrn did input Ferrari for a little while this year but I cant see him getting properly involved again.
I think Patrick Head has also had enough.

In February 2013, at the launch of F138 - in interview to the German Auto Motor und Sport Rory Byrne said that he is “working full steam” on Ferrari’s 2014 F1 car, in a role which will see Byrne return to the role as chief designer.

Patrick Head? I don´t think he´s in F1 since 2010. Working on some other areas of Williams if i´m not mistaken.

[munudeges]

No. I can't see Vettel ever being in a position where he would feel he would have any kind of chance at another team.

[Jonnycraig]

Aero is going to be a side issue next season. It's going to be a pure engine formula at least for 2014. As stated ad nauseum by Antony Davidson, an ERS failure next season and your race is over, let alone an issue with the engine itself.

Everyone who is anyone in the paddock believe for whatever reason that the Mercedes package is the one to have in which case RB will be hunting for scraps whilst the Mercs & FIs put their 3rd lap on them.

Wow, those are some bold Statements!
Is that whistling in the dark or do you really expect this to happen to that extent?

Having a phenomenally grippy car, lapping a second a lap faster than anyone else is completely meaningless if a minor ERS fault ends your race, so yes I really do expect a pure engine formula for 2014. As Richard_leeds says, in a reasonably short time, teams will catch up and engines will be equalized but the question was about if anyone could end RB dominance, to which the answer is clearly yes, as having the wrong engine will leave them also rans in 2014.

[Holm86]

The reason so many believes the Mercedes engine will be the best next year is because they have almost twice as many people working on it than Renault.

But that does not guarantee success. Right now we know absolutely nothing about the engines true performance or reliability. So its anybodys guess.

And yes i do also believe that engine failures are inevitable next year. So a good bag of luck could deside the championship.

[dans79]

The reason so many believes the Mercedes engine will be the best next year is because they have almost twice as many people working on it than Renault.

But that does not guarantee success. Right now we know absolutely nothing about the engines true performance or reliability. So its anybodys guess.

It works for RBR, I mean they have the largest budget in F1 by a wide margin if i remember correctly.

[prince]

The reason so many believes the Mercedes engine will be the best next year is because they have almost twice as many people working on it than Renault.

But that does not guarantee success. Right now we know absolutely nothing about the engines true performance or reliability. So its anybodys guess.

And yes i do also believe that engine failures are inevitable next year. So a good bag of luck could deside the championship.

Well, there was a piece of news related to Mercedes asking Pirelli to widen the rear tyres and they provided an evidence in form of the amount of torque that would be generated by New Mercedes engine. Pirelli has seen that and are worried about the effect of such a torque on their new tyres. Because of which, there is a buzz around that, Mercedes has an advantage on engine side.

[Lycoming]

The reason so many believes the Mercedes engine will be the best next year is because they have almost twice as many people working on it than Renault.

But that does not guarantee success. Right now we know absolutely nothing about the engines true performance or reliability. So its anybodys guess.

It works for RBR, I mean they have the largest budget in F1 by a wide margin if i remember correctly.

They certainly collect a bit more cash than the other teams by virtue of being constructors champions, but on the whole I doubt they're too far ahead of Mclaren/Ferrari/Mercedes.

F1 has been dominated by and large by clever computor nerds for decades now.

I wouldn't exactly call a guy who still uses a drawing board and set of french curves a "computor nerd".

The few common sense engineers who have always led development in F1 are becoming very rare these days.

Engineers don't rely on common sense; it's for sanity checks only.

I would no longer recommend F1 as a career choice, it is almost as boring now as aerospace.

Aerospace is a broad field. I imagine it's pretty tough to call all of it boring.

[xpensive]

...
Well, there was a piece of news related to Mercedes asking Pirelli to widen the rear tyres and they provided an evidence in form of the amount of torque that would be generated by New Mercedes engine. Pirelli has seen that and are worried about the effect of such a torque on their new tyres. Because of which, there is a buzz around that, Mercedes has an advantage on engine side.

Which is nonsense, speaks volumes about the journos' technical understanding. The engine's torque means nothing as there is a gearbox before the wheels, what matters is shear-force on the contact-patch, which is Power over Speed and nothing else.

But in either case, I'm certain that the load on the tyres is much higher during braking than accelleration, when braking power can get close to 3000 kW (4000 Hp) according to Brembo; http://formula1.brembo.com/en/?lang=en

[Holm86]

The reason so many believes the Mercedes engine will be the best next year is because they have almost twice as many people working on it than Renault.

But that does not guarantee success. Right now we know absolutely nothing about the engines true performance or reliability. So its anybodys guess.

It works for RBR, I mean they have the largest budget in F1 by a wide margin if i remember correctly.

I'm not sure. But i dont believe that RBR has the biggest budget in F1.

And do you remember Toyota?? They had the biggest budget ever in F1. How good were they?