Which team is most likely to catch redbull before 2026 discussion

[mendis]

All the challengers have got just one more shot at catching Red Bull and that's 2024. With budget restrictions and limited wind tunnel/CFD times, teams are forced to focus on 2026 car for the whole of 2025. So whatever they make in 2024, is the thing that runs in 2025. Nobody can afford to lose time in 2025, developing 2025 car. So if Red Bull comes out with RB20, retaining same advantage that they now have over the competition, then F1 is stuck with RB leading championship in 2024 and 25.

[CHT]

All the challengers have got just one more shot at catching Red Bull and that's 2024. With budget restrictions and limited wind tunnel/CFD times, teams are forced to focus on 2026 car for the whole of 2025. So whatever they make in 2024, is the thing that runs in 2025. Nobody can afford to lose time in 2025, developing 2025 car. So if Red Bull comes out with RB20, retaining same advantage that they now have over the competition, then F1 is stuck with RB leading championship in 2024 and 25.

Merc reign in WDC only came to an end during the final year of technical regulation in 2021, when RBR took the gamble to continue pushing their 2021 car development till the end while compromising their 2022 program. At the moment, RBR is miles ahead in the current technical regulation, and RB20 will be their 3rd evolution since championship-winning RB18, so it is unlikely RBR is going to trip over with their RB20 next year.

2024 is going to be a tough year for RBR's rival, the mid-field to be extremely close and we can expect drivers taking points off each other while trying to catch Max and RBR.

The team's direction for 2025 will depend on how close the teams are to the RB20 in 2024. If the gap is still as wide as today, I reckon most teams will write off 2025 to focus on 2026.

For sure RBR knows they have the upper hand and they are not going to play nice or play fair to lose this advantage for 2026.

[mendis]

All the challengers have got just one more shot at catching Red Bull and that's 2024. With budget restrictions and limited wind tunnel/CFD times, teams are forced to focus on 2026 car for the whole of 2025. So whatever they make in 2024, is the thing that runs in 2025. Nobody can afford to lose time in 2025, developing 2025 car. So if Red Bull comes out with RB20, retaining same advantage that they now have over the competition, then F1 is stuck with RB leading championship in 2024 and 25.

Merc reign in WDC only came to an end during the final year of technical regulation in 2021, when RBR took the gamble to continue pushing their 2021 car development till the end while compromising their 2022 program. At the moment, RBR is miles ahead in the current technical regulation, and RB20 will be their 3rd evolution since championship-winning RB18, so it is unlikely RBR is going to trip over with their RB20 next year.

2024 is going to be a tough year for RBR's rival, the mid-field to be extremely close and we can expect drivers taking points off each other while trying to catch Max and RBR.

The team's direction for 2025 will depend on how close the teams are to the RB20 in 2024. If the gap is still as wide as today, I reckon most teams will write off 2025 to focus on 2026.

For sure RBR knows they have the upper hand and they are not going to play nice or play fair to lose this advantage for 2026.

I think Mercedes domination ended as they fluffed the 2021 changes and lost out more than others. The almighty W11 was the greatest car any team in F1 ever built and it's successor W12 was nowhere near that mark.

The fact that RB19 has such a leg up on the competition, which the team admits hasn't put a whole lot of effort in their attempt to focus on RB20 due the wind tunnel penalty, if they achieve their objectives for RB20, then 24 and 25 are forgone conclusion. There are no regulatory changes for 24 or 25.

[stephen]

At the moment, McLaren and Mercedes look like the teams that can give them some competition in the next couple of seasons.

[CHT]

All the challengers have got just one more shot at catching Red Bull and that's 2024. With budget restrictions and limited wind tunnel/CFD times, teams are forced to focus on 2026 car for the whole of 2025. So whatever they make in 2024, is the thing that runs in 2025. Nobody can afford to lose time in 2025, developing 2025 car. So if Red Bull comes out with RB20, retaining same advantage that they now have over the competition, then F1 is stuck with RB leading championship in 2024 and 25.

Merc reign in WDC only came to an end during the final year of technical regulation in 2021, when RBR took the gamble to continue pushing their 2021 car development till the end while compromising their 2022 program. At the moment, RBR is miles ahead in the current technical regulation, and RB20 will be their 3rd evolution since championship-winning RB18, so it is unlikely RBR is going to trip over with their RB20 next year.

2024 is going to be a tough year for RBR's rival, the mid-field to be extremely close and we can expect drivers taking points off each other while trying to catch Max and RBR.

The team's direction for 2025 will depend on how close the teams are to the RB20 in 2024. If the gap is still as wide as today, I reckon most teams will write off 2025 to focus on 2026.

For sure RBR knows they have the upper hand and they are not going to play nice or play fair to lose this advantage for 2026.

I think Mercedes domination ended as they fluffed the 2021 changes and lost out more than others. The almighty W11 was the greatest car any team in F1 ever built and it's successor W12 was nowhere near that mark.

The fact that RB19 has such a leg up on the competition, which the team admits hasn't put a whole lot of effort in their attempt to focus on RB20 due the wind tunnel penalty, if they achieve their objectives for RB20, then 24 and 25 are forgone conclusion. There are no regulatory changes for 24 or 25.

This is what I call the art of deception. From what Eddie Jordon wrote recently he thinks RBR is way ahead with their RB20.

[Sieper]

If a customer team can make such a big jump, without an obvious concept change, I still think the constructor team is the one who can make the biggest jump going in to 24.

[mendis]

If a customer team can make such a big jump, without an obvious concept change, I still think the constructor team is the one who can make the biggest jump going in to 24.

I am curious why would you say so. Here is what I think. Usually, in times when PU development is still allowed, a constructor can dictate a lot of structural needs for the PU that can help the aero and the chassis. Which is not something revealed to customer teams until very last moment, other than just the overall dimensions and general cooling needs. But in times when the PU is frozen and customers know exactly what the cooling needs are, it's not such a big advantage for constructor.

I agree 2026 is going to be a tough year for customer teams as the constructor's racing team is dictating a lot of the assimilation aspects to the new chassis, which customer doesn't get to. Constructor would also know approximately what's the power output of the new PU and can set or revise their overall car performance objectives based on that info.

[Sieper]

You are certainly right that for 2026 a constructor has much more advantage, but even over these last frozen years the PU (amenities) do change. It is also not just the PU that Mercedes builds, they also make the transmission housing and internals, to their needs.

But I also think the can make big changes (driver further back) suspension set-up that others already have, so there simply is more to gain. It will also come with challenges ofcourse.

[organic]

I agree that in large part at the end of the 2024 development cycle that's largely what you'll be stuck with for 2025. And that means the order with the 2024 launch cars will likely stay predominantly the same for '24 and '25.

That said, Tombazis has talked about aerodynamic changes for 2025 to improve following. He said there are critical areas that can be improved but 2024 was too soon to implement them. Such changes could produce a 2021-like situation with teams focusing on 2026

[Bill_Kar]

Can somebody help me with an ELI5 of the development paths of each team? If you can either link me an article you propose, or a thread here in f1technical explaining some stuff or a TLDR I wouldn't mind.
I ask this because a lot of people think that McLaren is not just a RBR copy and it followed an Alpine/AM path in its design. Ferrari largely doing their own thing as well.

[CHT]

You are certainly right that for 2026 a constructor has much more advantage, but even over these last frozen years the PU (amenities) do change. It is also not just the PU that Mercedes builds, they also make the transmission housing and internals, to their needs.

But I also think the can make big changes (driver further back) suspension set-up that others already have, so there simply is more to gain. It will also come with challenges ofcourse.

Theoretically speaking, Merc should be able to copy their rival on the car design, but there is still a big question if the drivers can adapt to different driving styles and bring the max out of the car.

I am a firm believer in not trying to teach an old dog, new tricks. If we give LH the RB19 today, there is no guarantee he will be quick if the car doesnt suit his style

[diffuser]

You are certainly right that for 2026 a constructor has much more advantage, but even over these last frozen years the PU (amenities) do change. It is also not just the PU that Mercedes builds, they also make the transmission housing and internals, to their needs.

But I also think the can make big changes (driver further back) suspension set-up that others already have, so there simply is more to gain. It will also come with challenges ofcourse.

Teams are NOT required to buy transmissions, McLaren do not. Honda do not even make a transmission. The block sizes are regulated. Also, if a team buy's it's transmission, they're not obliged to buy the current year. SAT have often used RBR's previous year's transmissions. There isn't any performance gain using the next year's TM, it's often just a packaging change.

[SSScoffee]

I heard somewhere that the new regs might be postponed by one year. In that case, I can see RB being caught.

[CHT]

I heard somewhere that the new regs might be postponed by one year. In that case, I can see RB being caught.

I actually think this will benefit RBR more than their rival as one extra year will give RBR more time to develop their PU and restrict teams like Merc from upgrading their PU.

[AR3-GP]

I heard somewhere that the new regs might be postponed by one year. In that case, I can see RB being caught.

"somewhere"?

You'll have to say more than that...which pub?