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McLaren for me. They made a MEGA MEGA jump with their latest update package to thereabouts 2nd fastest car on the grid from stone dead last. That's a concept that's shown to work and i'm sure with some tweaks and finessing they will make more gains.
Ferrari seem to have made a step forwards with their tyre deg but they still seem to be lacking the true race pace compared to McLaren.
Merc are going to come with a different concept next year, and they are going to need some time to understand it, what works and how best to upgrade.
AMR started strong but seemingly got stuck with TD's. 2024 will be the first year Dan Fallows has reins on the car through the winter period so be interesting to see what stamps he brought over from Red Bull.
Either way - RB are going to be making mega upgrades to their car most likely so there will be a improvement from them aswell, so the goal posts arent 'set' so to speak. We already know RB/Max are heavily lifting on straights and corners this season, so it begs the question of how much TRUE pace is left in that car without having to open the taps more with some pressure from behind.
A interesting question would have been, would RB have won the 2023 season with their 2022 car, and could the use the same car going forwards into 2024.
Well McLaren isn't a works team, so to extract the last drop of performance on paper they would be at the backfoot, especially when all teams would have converged to almost even level in a 2025.
I would think Ferrari has a good card: works team, Vasseurs seems to have a positive influence on the team and their engine has improved lately.
Merc. Look at the level RB are operating at now. The driving, the design, the strategy, pit crew. Ending the domination of Merc required them to become the best at everything, no real weaknesses. The chances of McLaren or Ferrari getting to that stage just feel incredibly slim. Even if they get the car right that's not even half the job done to unseat RB. Merc is the only other team that has shown it can dominate and operate at a high level in all these categories in the last decade. The chance of a resurgence is slim, but they are realistically the only team that can put up a challenge over an entire season. It'll take a mighty car and a lot of luck.
Lets be realistic, the only options are Merc, Ferrari, Mclaren and an outside shout for Williams and AM, and as we are being realistic lets discount Williams and AM for the next 2 years.
Mclaren have done a lot of good work and are stepping forward a little at a time but at a regular pace, so there is a possibility they can find a nougat and surprise RBR .
The most probable is always going to be Merc or Ferrari due to the historic infrastructure and no doubt company wide experience. If not for the cost cap, I suspect they would already be up there due to shotgunning it or throwing money and hoping something sticks. Neither team have much experience in getting 'bang per buck' as they have not needed to.
I think if the gap is closed it will be due to RBR being reigned in rather than other teams making this quantum jump to the front.
A rule change or (hopefully not) discovering vigorous use of a grey area will lose their sweet spot and they will then be in the place Ferrari and Merc are now of not being able to change ethos as the cost would prohibit a full redesign and build from scratch.
Having said that, when Red Bull have to change engines it will be a hindrance to them no matter how smoothly it goes, and even though the gap is huge in time, I don't think it is that much in reality.
I suppose we have to ask ourselves who would we put money on if we were gambling, because unless something changes (the new rules) RBR are in a class of one
When arguing with a fool, be sure the other person is not doing the same thing.
Merc. Look at the level RB are operating at now. The driving, the design, the strategy, pit crew. Ending the domination of Merc required them to become the best at everything, no real weaknesses. The chances of McLaren or Ferrari getting to that stage just feel incredibly slim. Even if they get the car right that's not even half the job done to unseat RB. Merc is the only other team that has shown it can dominate and operate at a high level in all these categories in the last decade. The chance of a resurgence is slim, but they are realistically the only team that can put up a challenge over an entire season. It'll take a mighty car and a lot of luck.
Mclaren pit crew gives RB a run for their money. Mclaren drivers are promising as well. They have the most windtunnel hours and Mclaren is well...Mclaren...a championship winning team.
I think mclaren has a very could chance there car shares many characteristics of the RBR and the team understand the concept a feat Mercedes has not been able to do as of yet the reason I choose mclaren is they have more wind tunnel hours (plus a new wind tunnel itself) they have a solid driver pairing there pit stops have been comparable to red bull and the pace itself isn’t a million miles away every upgrade brought to the car has done exactly what it says on the box an the rate of development in itself is surprising
Mercedes ofcourse. If Mclaren can make huge gains so can they. They have dropped the zero pod. They will know what works by now. They’ll have a contender next year when they have redesigned the monoque and suspension.
Mercedes ofcourse. If Mclaren can make huge gains so can they. They have dropped the zero pod. They will know what works by now. They’ll have a contender next year when they have redesigned the monoque and suspension.
I do not see this.
With budget cap and engine freeze they have simply lost their mojo.
If we speak about "most likely" it is "most likely" that everything goes on as now. This means McLaren is making steps, maybe even Ferrari is back in the game. But "most likely" it is McLaren going the path they obviously go.
Honestly? It could be any of the other teams from Mercedes, McLaren or Ferrari. It think it's going to come down to whoever has the most wind tunnel hours and then after that, the best driver pairing.
AMR started strong but seemingly got stuck with TD's. 2024 will be the first year Dan Fallows has reins on the car through the winter period so be interesting to see what stamps he brought over from Red Bull.
Fallows started in April 2022, so was already fully involved in the 2023 car.
Alpha Tauri (or whatever they will be called next year); moving the team (at least the technical part of it) to the UK could, potentially, lift them up the grid appreciably.
Perspective - Understanding that sometimes the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view.
Alpha Tauri (or whatever they will be called next year); moving the team (at least the technical part of it) to the UK could, potentially, lift them up the grid appreciably.
well done
For me the answer is Ferrari. I expect them to pick up some wins next year. Monza plz. And they will be the clear 2nd force
McLaren already seems like it's on the right lines, but they are still half a second off RB and have been upgrading throughout the year. This is their position after many more upgrades than Ferrari, Merc and especially RB and they've had the correct design decisions from the beginning of the year. Just feel that there is more for Ferrari/Merc to gain and I don't trust Merc to not make a mistake somewhere again
well done