Championship permutations

[Moose]

Scarily enough, we're only a little over half way through the year and it's already time to start talking about championship permutations.

At this point, it's pretty much anyone's game if you allow for retirements. If you don't though, we're pretty close to a decided championship.

By my maths:
• Hamilton will win put himself clear of Rosberg (meaning, leaving Rosberg to need hamilton to finish lower than 2nd in some races) if he wins 3 more races (2 more would allow Rosberg to win every remaining race, with Hamilton second, finish level on points, and win based on number of victories).
• Rosberg needs to win at least 6 of the next 8 races assuming Hamilton doesn't have any disasters
• Vettel needs Hamilton to finish 3rd or lower in 2 races, and to win every remaining race (with hamilton 2nd in the other races) to win.

Of course, retirements can still shake up the season at this point, but with the Mercedes looking solid as a rock, it seems unlikely that there will be (m)any more.

[ChrisF1]

Too early for this, come back in 4 races time.

[Phil]

I think it's early too. At this point last year, Rosberg still had a sizeable lead. Now it's the other way around. What I think is certain; if things move on as they have, Lewis will walk it. It's 6 wins against 3, so if this ratio of wins vs. defeats continues, he'll easily take it. The only factor I see that can change this is a DNF. And with no DNF happening until now, only increases the likelihood that the next one might be the only one and one that could change the dynamics of this championship. If Rosberg has it, Lewis will walk it far earlier IMO.
If Lewis has it, it might spice things up considerably. Driving under pressure is a lot more difficult than if you are leading by 40+ points in the championship...

[PlatinumZealot]

Nico is under emense pressure as it is. He is wishing for a Hamilton dnf and at the same time pondering how he is going to manage 4 wins in a row if Hamilton's car holds stable.

[Moose]

We're now, thanks to Nico's DNF, in a position where Nico can win every remaining race and not win the title still (49 points difference can be gained by winning each race with Hamilton second, the difference is 53).

If Hamilton continues to perform as he is, he needs to win 4 more races, and then no matter where Nico or Seb finishes in any race, he's the World Champion.

[Fulcrum]

Hamilton is dominant enough that one could almost simplify the championship function to something like the following:

f(x) = 1, for x = 0, 1, 2
f(x) = 0.75 for x = 3
f(x) = 0.50 for x = 4

where f(x) is the probability Hamilton wins the World Championship, x denotes the number of unexpected, catastrophic failures, or compromised weekends in the remaining races; 1 - f(x) would be Rosberg's chance of the championship. Vettel may run Rosberg close but he has no realistic chance of beating Hamilton.

If Hamilton has fewer than 3 compromised weekends going forward I simply cannot see him being beaten on pace. 3 DNF's and Rosberg has a chance. It would take 4 DNFs in my mind for Rosberg to be a realistic alternative.

Without DNFs Hamilton would need to have 5 or 6 scrappy weekends, because even starting from the back of the grid might only gift Rosberg 7 points per race.

For the sake of entertainment I'm happy to be wrong!

[alexx_88]

You could almost tell from the first couple of races that Hamilton's win last year meant that a lot of pressure was taken off his shoulders, while Rosberg seemed unable to lift his game more than what he has done in 2014. Nico seems more resilient than Mark, but it looks awfully similar to the RB situation.

[Spoutnik]

Hamilton is always incredibly strong on the second part of the season idk if it's link with the motivation or the kind of circuit (maybe because he love some place of this second part like Monza or Austin). But with the new engine, who knows. I think Ferrari can win at least one race till the end. It's more a matter of pressure and reliability now.

[i70q7m7ghw]

Reliability always plays a part during the second half of the season. Last year Hamilton had a lot of his reliability problems earlier in the season, Rosberg then had a few issues towards the end of the season which kind of evened things up for them. This year, the cars have looked bulletproof in terms of reliability until this weekend.

I think unless something quite strange happens, and Hamilton has a string of DNFs and bad races, it's going to be a big struggle for Rosberg to turn this championship around.

[KeiKo403]

So Lewis could have this title wrapped up in Texas. And depending on Rosbergs performances and/or DNF's maybe even Russia just 5 weeks away? Which could mean a Merc WDC from only 3 Power Units? Wowwzers!! Unheard of F1!

[PlatinumZealot]

Hamilton is always incredibly strong on the second part of the season idk if it's link with the motivation or the kind of circuit (maybe because he love some place of this second part like Monza or Austin). But with the new engine, who knows. I think Ferrari can win at least one race till the end. It's more a matter of pressure and reliability now.

Pressure? Do you mean tyre pressures?



Ok good points.

Looking at the coming tracks it is going to be tight between the Merc boys:

Singapore = Very close between Ham and Ros, even Ferrari and RedBull are real threats here.

Japan = Very close between HAM and ROS, Mercedes will dominate

Russia = Very close between HAM and ROS, Long straights and high speed should suit Mercedes.

USA = Hamilton Track, Mercedes will dominate

Mexico = ??

Brazil = Rosberg track, very precise inputs and repeat ability required for good race pace. This will not be a walk in the park for Merc. Easy on the ERS so Ferrari and RedBull will be a factor.

Abu Dahbi = Hamilton track, Mercedes will dominate.

Yeah while Hamilton is strong at these tracks so is Rosberg. It definitely won't be a white wash. And that is right, Vettel will be a fly in the ointment.

[Ciro Pabón]

... Vettel needs ... to win every remaining race

Comedy gold.

Hamilton has the championship in his pocket since day 1.

F1 these days is as boring as watching paint dry. Hamilton has already won 2016 championship...

[Moose]

We're getting very close to concrete outcomes now.

HAM winning at Russia and CotA would be enough to lock Vettel out of the championship unless VET finishes 2nd at both of those races. He'll need at least until Mexico to seal victory against ROS unless something goes badly wrong for ROS.

HAM can now survive finishing in 3rd in every remaining race, and will still win the championship no matter who wins. He can in fact finish 4th in every remaining race, except one (in which he finishes 3rd).

[Fulcrum]

Without DNFs to either Rosberg or Hamilton, Hamilton would need to make a mistake every weekend to not be WC.

The Mercedes should be dominant in at least 3 of the remaining 5 races as well; so dominant, Hamilton could afford to start from the pit lane and still expect to finish 5th. Brazil isn't Hamilton's favourite place, and Mexico is an unknown, but it probably won't matter by then anyway.

As for the chance of a DNF, 1 mechanical issue is possible/probable. But that is for either driver, and if it is Rosberg then it really is game over.

I don't see Hamilton getting involved in multiple collisions either.

Bring on 2016.

[NathanOlder]

We're getting very close to concrete outcomes now.

HAM winning at Russia and CotA would be enough to lock Vettel out of the championship unless VET finishes 2nd at both of those races. He'll need at least until Mexico to seal victory against ROS unless something goes badly wrong for ROS.

HAM can now survive finishing in 3rd in every remaining race, and will still win the championship no matter who wins. He can in fact finish 4th in every remaining race, except one (in which he finishes 3rd).

If lewis finished 3rd and rosberg wins all the races , Nico will gain 50points. Lewis is only 48 ahead. So Lwis will need a 2nd and 4x 3rd place. ( if Nico wins all 5)