2006 qualifying system explained by Symonds

The 2006 season sees Formula 1 introducing a new qualifying format designed to generate more on-track action during the one-hour session. The new format brings with it some subtleties and complications that require decoding…

The session is split into three parts, let us call them:

Q1: Heat 1, Bottom six drop out, 15 mins
Q2: Heat 2, Bottom six drop out, 15 mins
Q3: Super-pole, Top ten set according to fastest lap, 20 mins

Prior to the application of relevant penalties, the grid is then determined by placing the 6 cars eliminated from Heat 1 in positions 17-22, and so forth.

The ten cars participating in the Super-pole must determine the fuel load to be used for the first stint of the race, prior to beginning this session. They will begin this session with a fuel load similar to that they will use for the opening race stint. While cars can refuel during Heats 1 and 2, they are not allowed to in the Super-pole session.

The bottom twelve cars are free to determine their fuel load after qualifying practice. This will allow them to run a longer first stint in the race, if there is a strategic advantage to be gained from doing so, and potentially to make up track position during the race.

HEATS 1 & 2

What do the cars have to do?

Each car must complete at least one flying lap during each heat, in order to be eligible to progress to the next heat/the Super-pole. There is no other obligation.

What will happen?

For cars likely to qualify in the top ten, the objective will be to manage their performance, so that they get through Heats 1 and 2 while completing the minimum possible number of laps, in order to save engine mileage, and without using a set of new tyres.

Slower cars will be less concerned with this, and focused instead on maximising their position within the bottom twelve.

Every car will run with low fuel when setting these lap times. This is because cars likely to qualify in the bottom twelve, will wish to qualify as close to P11 as possible. They will therefore run with minimal fuel, to ensure that their vehicles are close to maximum performance, and the cars likely to qualify in front will in turn be forced to do so, to avoid elimination during the heats.

Fitting a new set of tyres will be like ‘playing a joker’ during the session. Front-running cars will try and avoid doing this, in order to save at least one new set for the Super-pole, and as many new sets as possible for the race. However, cars further down the grid could gain up to two or three seconds in lap-time, by fitting new tyres, and therefore a significant number of grid positions.

Whatever could go wrong?!

If cars are “bumped out” of a Heat before the end, they will want to go back on track to set another lap-time. No team can plan for being bumped out of the session by a competitor. Consequently, every team will maintain its cars in a state of readiness for the possibility of going back out on track to set a faster time. If a driver gets ‘bumped’, his success in responding will depend not only on the quality of his lap, but also the ability of his team to react and adapt to changing circumstances.

One more complication, may come if there is deemed to be a strategic advantage from starting 11th (with a free fuel load) rather than 10th (with a pre-determined fuel load). This may lead to some interesting tactics, as teams work to accurately predict and manage their performance, in order to not progress to “Super-pole”!

SUPER-POLE

What do the cars have to do?

The teams must determine their fuel load prior to starting the session. This will be similar to that used in the opening stint although not identical. After the start of the session, they can no longer refuel.

The grid for the top ten cars will be determined according to the fastest lap set during this session.

For every lap completed within 110% of a driver’s fastest final time, he will receive a ‘fuel credit’ of a pre-determined quantity of fuel/lap, with which his car will be refuelled on Sunday. Teams will try and run their engines ‘lean’ in order to consume less fuel than they will receive in return from the fuel credit. This will allow them to increase the fuel load with which they will begin the race – and slightly extending the length of the opening stint.

What will happen?

In general the super-pole session will see the top ten cars completing around 15 minutes’ running on old tyres, to put the car in optimum performance configuration – that’s to say, with a low fuel load.

The drivers will lap to a target time, within 110% of their predicted best on new tyres in order to qualify for the fuel credit (for example, less than 1:39.000 for a predicted fastest time of 1:30.000). In an ideal world, this would mean completing laps at 109.9% of the predicted fastest lap, in order to use as little fuel as possible, and stress the car/engine as little as possible. However, the reality is that we cannot predict the final lap-time accurately enough to do this. We will therefore leave a safety margin when establishing the driver’s target lap-times, to ensure we get our full fuel credit. As such, the drivers will lap at something like 107% potential in the opening stages of the session.

Once the fuel load has been burned off, drivers can be expected to pit, fit new tyres and set their ‘quick’ lap that will count for grid position. They are unlikely to be able to improve this time afterwards, for three reasons: firstly, because tyre performance drops off after the first ‘golden’ lap; secondly, another run would use up another valuable set of new tyres; thirdly, this would mean there was still fuel left in the car, and therefore that the first run was not done in ‘optimum’ performance configuration.

This will mean all ten drivers will be looking to set a quick lap in the final five minutes of the session, bringing a crescendo of interest and excitement.

How will the teams determine the fuel load for Super-pole?

In order to determine the fuel load for the session, the top ten cars will have to strike a balance between grid position, and the optimum first stint length.

The best indication of likely stint lengths comes from 2004, the last time qualifying included race fuel and tyre changes were permitted. This led to ‘forward-biased’ strategies where the first stint was usually the shortest of the race. Equally, almost all circuits saw three-stop strategies employed by cars in the top half of the field – which were an average of 15 minutes long.

Unlike 2005, the ‘ideal’ stint length is no longer simply a question of fuel strategy. With shorter-life tyres, tyre degradation (the performance loss as the tyres get older) is now higher, which means that after a certain number of laps, the penalty of pitting for new tyres is less than that of continuing to run with old tyres. As such, ‘ideal stint length’ will be dictated by the optimum point for changing tyres according to tyre degradation levels (which change circuit to circuit, and according to the compound/construction that are selected).

Within this window, teams will then adjust their fuel loads for competitive reasons, based on their estimations of rivals’ pace in practice and Heats 1 & 2, in order to improve grid position. This will be especially important at circuits where overtaking is difficult, as it will be important to qualify ahead of potentially slower competitors. Track position is still the name of the game in the race, which may lead teams to compromise the ‘ideal’ length of the first stint in order to improve their grid position.

THE RACE

What is the impact on the race and strategies?

The top ten cars will almost certainly start the race on lighter fuel loads than those behind them, which means they will make their first stop earlier than the cars behind. During this first stint, these cars will be looking to break away from the bottom twelve cars, in order that they can – ideally – make their first stop and exit the pits ahead of the chasing bunch.

At this first stop, the team will have to decide on its strategy for the rest of the race. They could decide to make two more stops, if they know they will get back on track ahead of the second half of the field, and therefore get enough clear track to make this strategy work. However, if they are not likely to exit the pits ahead of these slower cars, they may choose to make just one more stop, to give them sufficient fuel to leapfrog back ahead as the slower cars pit.

This means that the notion of a ‘three-stop strategy’ or ‘two-stop strategy’ becomes almost redundant for the top ten cars. Rather, they will have a fixed stop point for their first stop – and after this, the strategic possibilities will remain much more flexible. The stop laps for second and third stops may fluctuate significantly, as they try and make up positions, or protect themselves relative to cars starting outside the top ten and running ‘ideal’ strategies.

Indeed, there is a clear strategic advantage to be gained from starting 11th rather than 10th. This is because the cars in 11th will be free to choose the optimum strategy and react to the performance of the cars in front. However, cars in 10th will likely be running a compromised strategy, where the lap on which they make their first stop is shorter than the optimum for this grid position. As such, they may be vulnerable to attack.

No matter how well a team plans its strategy, a poor start, or safety car period, will fundamentally alter the strategy decisions – because they will limit the ability to make the most of a light fuel load in the opening stint. The latter, in particular, could hand the initiative to slower cars outside the top ten. As ever, the challenge will be to stay alert and flexible to exploit any opportunities that present themselves.

Overall, the new format has wide-ranging, complex and exciting consequences. It will see more on-track action during the qualifying hour, and three ‘peaks’ of excitement at the end of each heat and the Super-pole. It will also alter the rhythm of the races on Sunday in a number of subtle ways. Discovering the nuances of the format, and meeting its demands, will be among the more exciting challenges of this opening race weekend!