Manoah2u wrote: ↑11 Nov 2021, 22:09
Hamilton can still manage a P1. The rain can just as much ruin Verstappen's lap and Hamilton/Bottas can have a perfect moment lap and be comfortable P1 and P2. He could start from P6 still, and it's likely from P6 he'll climb the field to guarantee a podium finish and not unlikely be P2.
does the grid penalty get served @ the sprint race or @ the main race?
i thought i remember that the sprint race is officially 'qualification' and afaik there ain't no penalties taken there, so am i to assume he can take a brand new engine, get pole and win and grab a point, then find himself in the main race starting P6 and finish P2 - likely behind Max - set the fastest lap and grab another point. Max grabs 27 points (P2 in sprint), Lewis grabs 22 points (p2 in main). Max would then extend his lead with 5 points in this scenario.
That would mean Max would have a 24 points lead on Hamilton with 3 races to go ( i missed one race somehow before ). He needs to score 8 points over Max every race just to be even, and if they end up even, Max would still win due to win count. The difference between P1 and P2 is 7 points, so even if Lewis wins every single GP after Brazil, AND manages to get the fastest lap (which is going to be impossible, as Marko would sacrifice Perez, Gasly or Tsunoda for that), he still won't make it.
Meaning the only chance for Hamilton to win the WDC is if Verstappen finishes a race in P3 instead of P2.
That said, anything can still happen and it's more likely to happen here @ Brazil.
Also, it's a tactical smart and sound decision to take a penalty here, especially if it's raining during qually and sprint race.
not only are incidents more likely, and with that safety cars perhaps even red flags, which increases chances on gaining.
for those in front you lose your gap, for those behind you win that. a lucky timed pitstop can even turn the tables.
And yes, Max can also get a DNF.