2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix - Yas Marina, Dec 10 - 12

[Big Tea]

My friend, we fans are naive. F1 is show business, after covid impacting business for last year, this year has presented Liberty an opportunity to make all amends. FIA is like refree in football they can be influenced. End of the day money rules. Without FIA help final showdown was not possible.

I have been watching F1 for a very long time....all the way back to the Hill (Graham) Stewart rivalry and even a bit earlier. Yes F1 is much more of a business now but it has been pretty big business all along with the wealthy and famous attracted to it. The Monaco GP does not exist by accident. Anyway my point is that all through that time there have been accusations of favoritism and rigging of results none of which seem very likely. The FIA has been accussed of being in the pocket of various big car manufacturers Ferrari, Mercedes, Honda and more. It has been accused of being anti various teams e.g. Lotus & Williams at various times and in favour of those same teams at others.

A more critical look suggests this is all just paranoid nonsense usually promoted by various fans and supporters of the teams & sometimes by the teams themselves.

You are correct to say that the F1 bosses want an exciting championship to go down to the wire because that is best for business. What they can do is tinker with regulations & rules, they have done this many times over the years mostly without success.

I doubt that the FIA or anyone else has much influence over the stewards or the race directors decisions. The teams will try to influence both as much as the rules allow but ultimately both will protect their autonomy because their decisions can be life & death decisions. I see no evidence of the stewards consistently favoring one driver or one team over others. That doesn't mean that I agree with every decision they make, far from it, but they don't appear to have any consistent bias. Nor do their decisions indicate that they are deliberately trying to manipulate the season to have a last race showdown. Last race showdowns are a rarity. We have one this season because the regulation changes combined with the abilities of Max & Lewis & their teams has led to two drivers from different teams being tied on points going into the last race. You can argue that the regulation changes were designed to hurt Mercedes (they probably were) and you can question decisions by race control and the stewards because both are human and will make mistakes but there is no evidence that the whole season or any part of it has been rigged to create this outcome.

It changed when Sky got involved and has gone up a notch since Netflix rocked up.

Then, all we knew before 'social media' is what was fed to us so we may not be judging squarely. It is only now they are transmitting some steward to team calls we are hearing what has apparently been standard for some time (deals, influence etc)

Also, it is not a sport you can pause while the 'ref' watches replays on the big screen, so some things are bound to look bad when viewed later.

[El Scorchio]

My friend, we fans are naive. F1 is show business, after covid impacting business for last year, this year has presented Liberty an opportunity to make all amends. FIA is like refree in football they can be influenced. End of the day money rules. Without FIA help final showdown was not possible.

I have been watching F1 for a very long time....all the way back to the Hill (Graham) Stewart rivalry and even a bit earlier. Yes F1 is much more of a business now but it has been pretty big business all along with the wealthy and famous attracted to it. The Monaco GP does not exist by accident. Anyway my point is that all through that time there have been accusations of favoritism and rigging of results none of which seem very likely. The FIA has been accussed of being in the pocket of various big car manufacturers Ferrari, Mercedes, Honda and more. It has been accused of being anti various teams e.g. Lotus & Williams at various times and in favour of those same teams at others.

A more critical look suggests this is all just paranoid nonsense usually promoted by various fans and supporters of the teams & sometimes by the teams themselves.

You are correct to say that the F1 bosses want an exciting championship to go down to the wire because that is best for business. What they can do is tinker with regulations & rules, they have done this many times over the years mostly without success.

I doubt that the FIA or anyone else has much influence over the stewards or the race directors decisions. The teams will try to influence both as much as the rules allow but ultimately both will protect their autonomy because their decisions can be life & death decisions. I see no evidence of the stewards consistently favoring one driver or one team over others. That doesn't mean that I agree with every decision they make, far from it, but they don't appear to have any consistent bias. Nor do their decisions indicate that they are deliberately trying to manipulate the season to have a last race showdown. Last race showdowns are a rarity. We have one this season because the regulation changes combined with the abilities of Max & Lewis & their teams has led to two drivers from different teams being tied on points going into the last race. You can argue that the regulation changes were designed to hurt Mercedes (they probably were) and you can question decisions by race control and the stewards because both are human and will make mistakes but there is no evidence that the whole season or any part of it has been rigged to create this outcome.

While I definitely think the sport isn't rigged toward helping Red Bull or Mercedes, Horner or Wolff, Hamilton or Verstappen, I do think some decisions both this and last season were taken in order to ramp up the excitement of the title races, at the benefit sometimes for and sometimes against certain drivers. They have had a lot of incentive to try and make sure this season has the conclusion it has, (the hype, the viewing figures, the publicity, the money) and I think a few things have been slightly engineered or overlooked along the way which have affected both 'sides' both positively and negatively to get to this point.

[Jambier]

Maybe I'm wrong, but the fact that new turn 5 is not so slow, launching onto the first straight, will help Mercedes a lot.

I noticed in Jedda, they were mighty coming from turn 27.

Why more ? They will be unbeatable in straights yes, but it was also the same with old corner, maybe even more when starting from a low speed

[El Scorchio]

For all the Dutch viewers, this will probably be the last race of Olav Mol and his team.

Incidentally, I read this morning that there is a move to get this race made free to air in the Netherlands.

[Bill_Kar]

Maybe I'm wrong, but the fact that new turn 5 is not so slow, launching onto the first straight, will help Mercedes a lot.

I noticed in Jedda, they were mighty coming from turn 27.

Why more ? They will be unbeatable in straights yes, but it was also the same with old corner, maybe even more when starting from a low speed

I think RB has better traction. So launching from a slow corner, in my mind, it would be a tad more difficult for Merc to stay close.

Now, new turn 5 has more speed mid-corner and you can take the appropriate line (compromising your apex essentially, going to the outside and then straightening your wheel to carry more speed). And I remember in Jeddah, both Hamilton & Bottas took that alternative line beautifully handling mid-corner speed and being able to overtake on the S/F line.

As I've said many times, I'm no expert, but it seems to me that long-radius, mid-speed corners are great for Merc, than the usual chicane/low speed corner.

Edit: The new turn 5 is definitely higher-speed than the old one, the old one was essentially a 180 degrees corner coming from a chicane.

[Jambier]

Maybe I'm wrong, but the fact that new turn 5 is not so slow, launching onto the first straight, will help Mercedes a lot.

I noticed in Jedda, they were mighty coming from turn 27.

Why more ? They will be unbeatable in straights yes, but it was also the same with old corner, maybe even more when starting from a low speed

I think RB has better traction. So launching from a slow corner, in my mind, it would be a tad more difficult for Merc to stay close.

Now, new turn 5 has more speed mid-corner and you can take the appropriate line (compromising your apex essentially, going to the outside and then straightening your wheel to carry more speed). And I remember in Jeddah, both Hamilton & Bottas took that alternative line beautifully handling mid-corner speed and being able to overtake on the S/F line.

As I've said many times, I'm no expert, but it seems to me that long-radius, mid-speed corners are great for Merc, than the usual chicane/low speed corner.

Edit: The new turn 5 is definitely higher-speed than the old one, the old one was essentially a 180 degrees corner coming from a chicane.

OK you may be right, I think in terms of pace it will be a nightmare for RB anyway.

[basti313]

Regarding who can win the championship:
Many engine specialists say that only Merc can win under the current engine regulations. One of them is the Fritz Indra, who is teaching racing engines at the University of Vienna. He said that he exactly told this to Marco and is making fun with betting against other specialists who claim different. The engine actions of RedBull are in the wake of what Indra tells Marco.
This is what we see this season. Ferrari and Renault are far away, RedBull came super close with the copy of the split turbo and a super close collaboration with Honda. This is also what they will follow next year with getting the engine "home" to get an integration system like at Merc.
But the standing issue is, that Merc has at least 5 years more experience with this engine given the huge set of data with their customer teams. This is why they could pull the engine trick this year and say goodbye to RedBull.
If I have to bet...Hamilton WDC and Merc WCC next year as well.

This brings us to turn 5 this weekend:
More ICE power means more top speed. As they enter the straight with higher speed the power needed is higher and you simply need to be more competitive in ICE power to get along the straight without substantial time loss.
This means RedBull has to compromise more on downforce.

RedBull in general:
We saw a season where Merc tried to find out how far they can get away without development as they want to concentrate on next season. I also think Ham is still compromised with Covid and the team was not operating at highest levels at the beginning. Now they get their things together and are operating better with the car, still without a good strategy and a compromised driver.
That RedBull is close and now not has nothing to do with RedBull. What we saw was/is a weakness of Merc and it swings because Merc has issues to get their stuff together. We saw how the difference suddenly goes into a win from last place in Brazil once Ham is spot on and the strategy is easy...

The track this weekend is easy to drive, strategy is easy...there is no way Verstappen and RedBull can make a driving or strategic difference like in some of the last races.
Abu is unfortunately the most boring race in terms of strategy...2 stop was never really competitive unless you can not overtake a slower car, this should be no issue this year. For your stop you wait for a SC or mid race. Nothing to gamble here.

[atanatizante]

Maybe bottas should change his engine and help the team..

TBH I don't the team would want to risk having him not up the front of the grid. There's no way they'll want two Red Bulls right next to Hamilton with no Bottas there.

BOT is very fast around here, so why not they choose to split strategies with his car setup towards qualy and HAM towards the race and be the fastest or way faster in the top speed traps?

[SiLo]

I think Red Bull might have to make a play like Jeddah and go for a qualifying setup again. Surely track position is realistically a better tactic than hoping for a safety car on a track with tonnes of run off and less silly corners to trip over other cars?

[jz11]

Jeddah quali setup gamble was all about yellow and red flags, else you can't expect to hold back Lewis with a car that has 0.5sec deficit in race pace (probably more), slower on straights and significantly compromised tire life

[Big Tea]

Regarding who can win the championship:
Many engine specialists say that only Merc can win under the current engine regulations. One of them is the Fritz Indra, who is teaching racing engines at the University of Vienna. He said that he exactly told this to Marco and is making fun with betting against other specialists who claim different. The engine actions of RedBull are in the wake of what Indra tells Marco.
This is what we see this season. Ferrari and Renault are far away, RedBull came super close with the copy of the split turbo and a super close collaboration with Honda. This is also what they will follow next year with getting the engine "home" to get an integration system like at Merc.
But the standing issue is, that Merc has at least 5 years more experience with this engine given the huge set of data with their customer teams. This is why they could pull the engine trick this year and say goodbye to RedBull.
If I have to bet...Hamilton WDC and Merc WCC next year as well.

This brings us to turn 5 this weekend:
More ICE power means more top speed. As they enter the straight with higher speed the power needed is higher and you simply need to be more competitive in ICE power to get along the straight without substantial time loss.
This means RedBull has to compromise more on downforce.

RedBull in general:
We saw a season where Merc tried to find out how far they can get away without development as they want to concentrate on next season. I also think Ham is still compromised with Covid and the team was not operating at highest levels at the beginning. Now they get their things together and are operating better with the car, still without a good strategy and a compromised driver.
That RedBull is close and now not has nothing to do with RedBull. What we saw was/is a weakness of Merc and it swings because Merc has issues to get their stuff together. We saw how the difference suddenly goes into a win from last place in Brazil once Ham is spot on and the strategy is easy...

The track this weekend is easy to drive, strategy is easy...there is no way Verstappen and RedBull can make a driving or strategic difference like in some of the last races.
Abu is unfortunately the most boring race in terms of strategy...2 stop was never really competitive unless you can not overtake a slower car, this should be no issue this year. For your stop you wait for a SC or mid race. Nothing to gamble here.

But 3 other teams run Merc engines, and are not leading

[sushantasapkota1]

Maybe bottas should change his engine and help the team..

TBH I don't the team would want to risk having him not up the front of the grid. There's no way they'll want two Red Bulls right next to Hamilton with no Bottas there.

BOT is very fast around here, so why not they choose to split strategies with his car setup towards qualy and HAM towards the race and be the fastest or way faster in the top speed traps?

Yes bottas has done well.. Would be interesting if he can put max behind

[codetower]

But 3 other teams run Merc engines, and are not leading

This is what has impressed me the most the last few years. Not only are the "3 other teams" not leading, they aren't even close. It takes much more than a fast engine to win.

[El Scorchio]

Regarding who can win the championship:
Many engine specialists say that only Merc can win under the current engine regulations. One of them is the Fritz Indra, who is teaching racing engines at the University of Vienna. He said that he exactly told this to Marco and is making fun with betting against other specialists who claim different. The engine actions of RedBull are in the wake of what Indra tells Marco.
This is what we see this season. Ferrari and Renault are far away, RedBull came super close with the copy of the split turbo and a super close collaboration with Honda. This is also what they will follow next year with getting the engine "home" to get an integration system like at Merc.
But the standing issue is, that Merc has at least 5 years more experience with this engine given the huge set of data with their customer teams. This is why they could pull the engine trick this year and say goodbye to RedBull.
If I have to bet...Hamilton WDC and Merc WCC next year as well.

This brings us to turn 5 this weekend:
More ICE power means more top speed. As they enter the straight with higher speed the power needed is higher and you simply need to be more competitive in ICE power to get along the straight without substantial time loss.
This means RedBull has to compromise more on downforce.

RedBull in general:
We saw a season where Merc tried to find out how far they can get away without development as they want to concentrate on next season. I also think Ham is still compromised with Covid and the team was not operating at highest levels at the beginning. Now they get their things together and are operating better with the car, still without a good strategy and a compromised driver.
That RedBull is close and now not has nothing to do with RedBull. What we saw was/is a weakness of Merc and it swings because Merc has issues to get their stuff together. We saw how the difference suddenly goes into a win from last place in Brazil once Ham is spot on and the strategy is easy...

The track this weekend is easy to drive, strategy is easy...there is no way Verstappen and RedBull can make a driving or strategic difference like in some of the last races.
Abu is unfortunately the most boring race in terms of strategy...2 stop was never really competitive unless you can not overtake a slower car, this should be no issue this year. For your stop you wait for a SC or mid race. Nothing to gamble here.

But 3 other teams run Merc engines, and are not leading

Very true. Engine power on it's own means nothing without good aero or downforce. I believe Mazepin has been top in some speed traps so it goes to show that good straightline speed can be pretty meaningless without a complimentary package. Look at where AM and Williams 'languish' even though they have the Mercedes engine. Hamilton was only fastest in the speed trap at Brazil in sprint qualifying. 4th in real qualifying and 5th in the race with Renault, Ferrari and Honda powered cars all faster.

Just saying all their success is down to a 'better' engine firstly doesn't really make sense in light of the above, and secondly really does down the rest of the efforts of the car design team. In fact I think it was written the Mercedes team were thrilled with this attitude from others in the first few years of this era as their good aero package really flew under the radar of a lot of people.

[Jambier]

I think Red Bull might have to make a play like Jeddah and go for a qualifying setup again. Surely track position is realistically a better tactic than hoping for a safety car on a track with tonnes of run off and less silly corners to trip over other cars?

It makes no sense on this track, you can't defend track position, many straights, DRS, track position is very useless here.

What you need is faster car on race day. I think RB can gamble and try low wing setup maybe