2021 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix - Yas Marina, Dec 10 - 12

[Mattyw]

Yeah...maybe Toto asked for it as Verstappen was catching Hamilton, and Toto thought that the race would be stopped !
At the end of the day, it was serious mismanagement of Mercedes that caused the problem. They were out thunk ! if they mirrored RBR, they would have won.

How could they mirror redbull and not lost track position?

That was a gamble they had to make. At the VSC stage, they could afford to lose track position with the overspeed they had, although I can imagine they wanted to avoid a direct duel, and they were clearly quick enough to stay ahead were it not for the SC in the end.

In the SC stage, well, there were in essence 4 scenarios:
- Both stay out, LH likely to win (despite older tires, Hamilton was lapping at similar pace)
- MV goes in, LH stays out. MV win if restart, LH win if not.
- LH goes in, MV stays out. LH win if restart, MV win if not.
- Both go in, LH likely to win on newer tires.

The only scenario in my view where losing track position was a big risk was if the race was not restarted - if it was restarted and MV had track position by staying out while LH changed tires, LH should be able to overtake. And I believe that the chance of no restart was limited given the desires to finish it on track. So, I think it was the wrong call to go for track position: the only scenario where I expect it would have been decisive (LH goes in, MV stays out, no restart) was unlikely to happen.

Why is there this assumption if Lewis pitted he would have overtaken Max?

Max had the skinny RW not Ham. There was also no DRS (if the race was to restart) so I simply don't see how Ham would have passed Ver on track.

[Tom145145]

How could they mirror redbull and not lost track position?

That was a gamble they had to make. At the VSC stage, they could afford to lose track position with the overspeed they had, although I can imagine they wanted to avoid a direct duel, and they were clearly quick enough to stay ahead were it not for the SC in the end.

In the SC stage, well, there were in essence 4 scenarios:
- Both stay out, LH likely to win (despite older tires, Hamilton was lapping at similar pace)
- MV goes in, LH stays out. MV win if restart, LH win if not.
- LH goes in, MV stays out. LH win if restart, MV win if not.
- Both go in, LH likely to win on newer tires.

The only scenario in my view where losing track position was a big risk was if the race was not restarted - if it was restarted and MV had track position by staying out while LH changed tires, LH should be able to overtake. And I believe that the chance of no restart was limited given the desires to finish it on track. So, I think it was the wrong call to go for track position: the only scenario where I expect it would have been decisive (LH goes in, MV stays out, no restart) was unlikely to happen.

Max will always do the opposite so we can discount 2 option for consideration. If Lewis pitted I don’t think any backmarkers would’ve gotten in the way of the top 2, but there would be lapped cars to move normally. This works if you can be certain the race will resume, which in normal circumstances it won’t that late in a race with that type of accident. I can see your logic and I don’t disagree with the scenarios, but they are not all equal in probability. If you add the likelihood of either backmarker traffic for max or ending under the SC the best bet was not to pit.

Furthermore, I believe it was solid strategy by Merc…they could have panicked on both occasions but didn’t. It’s not a track you give up position at and definitely not to Max when he only needs you not to win. Look how hard it was to pass Sergio on wrecked soft tyres. They would have been questionable coming in on the VSC and off the wall crazy in the SC period.

[El Scorchio]

Doesn’t rule 15.3 allow the ability to be manipulated by external sources even outside of the teams screaming in his ear. What were the betting odds for this past weekend?

I can imagine the live odds for a Verstappen win were about as long as they could feasibly get, up until the last few laps- even probably the last few moments before Masigate.

[DChemTech]

Why is there this assumption if Lewis pitted he would have overtaken Max?

Max had the skinny RW not Ham. There was also no DRS (if the race was to restart) so I simply don't see how Ham would have passed Ver on track.

He was almost able to fight Max, who was on nearly-fresh softs, on 40-lap-old hards.
If Lewis was on nearly-fresh softs and Max on old hards, with the driving spirit Lewis was showing this weekend, I fully expect Lewis to be capable of landing that overtake. Or otherwise, Max driving him off and losing on a penalty or so.

[Roo]

So many posters do not seem to get that this is not about Lewis v Max or Horner V Woolf, and it does not matter who was leading and who was 5 cars back, or what happened during the season.
The whole nub of this is that a race and championship was decided on the whim of an official who had written rules and procedures and he decided to ignore them for a lap of TV excitement.

We all know Merc is not going to get anywhere and now way is the race or championship going to be changed but the procedure has to be.
This time it was RBR and Max gaining at the expense of Merc and Lewis, if it happens again to could equally well be Mclaren and Ferrari in those roles, or any other team.

The only possible outcome is Massi will be 'promoted' to a different job and a new set of procedures and rules will be introduced for next year on.

Please understand this is not a driver and team v another driver and team this is fundamental to the fairness of sport for the future.

Perfect description.
The only way to disagree with you is if I'm biased towards or against one driver or team.

But even those who are have to realise that it could easily be the other way around next time.
Teams have to know the expected outcome to plan the race.

Or

You haven't seen it's alledged RB, through Horner, for MV, proposed ignoring the rules.

[Tom145145]

Why is there this assumption if Lewis pitted he would have overtaken Max?

Max had the skinny RW not Ham. There was also no DRS (if the race was to restart) so I simply don't see how Ham would have passed Ver on track.

He was almost able to fight Max, who was on nearly-fresh softs, on 40-lap-old hards.
If Lewis was on nearly-fresh softs and Max on old hards, with the driving spirit Lewis was showing this weekend, I fully expect Lewis to be capable of landing that overtake. Or otherwise, Max driving him off and losing on a penalty or so.

I don’t think we will ever agree on this, you are working in hindsight. The assumption that it would end under the safety car was backed up by decades of SC periods, so well founded. Mercedes’ mistake and mine is thinking that this was Sport based on rules and not Entertainment based on some idea that the season needed a fitting end. The best person to reference on this is a Mr Masi (pre race version),

”There’s a requirement in the sporting regulations to wave all the lapped cars past,”

“From that point, it was position six onwards that were still running [on the lead lap], so between 10 or 11 cars had to unlap themselves.

“Therefore the safety car period was a bit longer than what we would have normally expected.”

How could Merc do anything different?!

[Phil]

I'd like to add, I get that entertainment value was predictable. Just not that they would break their own protocol in order to achieve it.

[Tom145145]

I'd like to add, I get that entertainment value was predictable. Just not that they would break their own protocol in order to achieve it.

+1

[Big Tea]

Perfect description.
The only way to disagree with you is if I'm biased towards or against one driver or team.

But even those who are have to realise that it could easily be the other way around next time.
Teams have to know the expected outcome to plan the race.

Or

You haven't seen it's alledged RB, through Horner, for MV, proposed ignoring the rules.

It does not matter if it was or was not. That was this time it could be any other car or team next time or the same teams the other way around. What any team does (or does not) should have no effect on what happens under the rules of a particular incident. ( I suppose there could possibly be exceptions when all parties are notified well before hand, but even then only in exceptional circumstances.)

[NathanOlder]

That would create suspicion. Therefore they had a Mercedes powered car do it for them.

Yeah...maybe Toto asked for it as Verstappen was catching Hamilton, and Toto thought that the race would be stopped !
At the end of the day, it was serious mismanagement of Mercedes that caused the problem. They were out thunk ! if they mirrored RBR, they would have won.

You have no idea in how the strategy works if you think Mercedes could mirror what RedBull did.

Or is this just an attempt to troll? Either way, for a mod its pretty poor fella.

[DChemTech]

I don’t think we will ever agree on this, you are working in hindsight. The assumption that it would end under the safety car was backed up by decades of SC periods, so well founded. Mercedes’ mistake and mine is thinking that this was Sport based on rules and not Entertainment based on some idea that the season needed a fitting end. The best person to reference on this is a Mr Masi (pre race version),

”There’s a requirement in the sporting regulations to wave all the lapped cars past,”

“From that point, it was position six onwards that were still running [on the lead lap], so between 10 or 11 cars had to unlap themselves.

“Therefore the safety car period was a bit longer than what we would have normally expected.”

How could Merc do anything different?!

I did expect, during the race (not in hindsight!) they would restart based on entertainment argumentation, and without lapped cars in between (although I expected they'd let all cars pass, not a subset). On that notion I was completely baffled by MB not calling Hamilton in. Perhaps it was not the thought a strategist would have with a broader dataset at hand, but I guess in this case ignorance was a bliss!

[Roo]

But even those who are have to realise that it could easily be the other way around next time.
Teams have to know the expected outcome to plan the race.

Or

You haven't seen it's alledged RB, through Horner, for MV, proposed ignoring the rules.

It does not matter if it was or was not. That was this time it could be any other car or team next time or the same teams the other way around. What any team does (or does not) should have no effect on what happens under the rules of a particular incident. ( I suppose there could possibly be exceptions when all parties are notified well before hand, but even then only in exceptional circumstances.)

Should have might do and whataboutary is the irrelevant bit. It does matter, they may be cuplable and benficiary.

[holeindalip]

Doesn’t rule 15.3 allow the ability to be manipulated by external sources even outside of the teams screaming in his ear. What were the betting odds for this past weekend?

I can imagine the live odds for a Verstappen win were about as long as they could feasibly get, up until the last few laps- even probably the last few moments before Masigate.

I’m sure someone’s pockets got a hefty filling then, maybe Masi can afford the help he needs…..

[Tom145145]

I don’t think we will ever agree on this, you are working in hindsight. The assumption that it would end under the safety car was backed up by decades of SC periods, so well founded. Mercedes’ mistake and mine is thinking that this was Sport based on rules and not Entertainment based on some idea that the season needed a fitting end. The best person to reference on this is a Mr Masi (pre race version),

”There’s a requirement in the sporting regulations to wave all the lapped cars past,”

“From that point, it was position six onwards that were still running [on the lead lap], so between 10 or 11 cars had to unlap themselves.

“Therefore the safety car period was a bit longer than what we would have normally expected.”

How could Merc do anything different?!

I did expect, during the race (not in hindsight!) they would restart based on entertainment argumentation, and without lapped cars in between (although I expected they'd let all cars pass, not a subset). On that notion I was completely baffled by MB not calling Hamilton in. Perhaps it was not the thought a strategist would have with a broader dataset at hand, but I guess in this case ignorance was a bliss!

It is still the wrong decision at the time with the available information. This is how they gauge themselves, did you make the correct decision with the information at hand, without adding the information you have after. The other information that you gather in hindsight can then go into future decision making.
You would have made a different decision and that might have given a better outcome, who knows. The issue I take is in hindsight saying MB f-up and somehow could have avoided this. This was no more than Masi running a Tombola for the win.

Edit: Also if you thought they would let all the cars through then you couldn’t believe they would have ended the safety car…there just wasn’t enough laps left.

[El Scorchio]

I don’t think we will ever agree on this, you are working in hindsight. The assumption that it would end under the safety car was backed up by decades of SC periods, so well founded. Mercedes’ mistake and mine is thinking that this was Sport based on rules and not Entertainment based on some idea that the season needed a fitting end. The best person to reference on this is a Mr Masi (pre race version),

”There’s a requirement in the sporting regulations to wave all the lapped cars past,”

“From that point, it was position six onwards that were still running [on the lead lap], so between 10 or 11 cars had to unlap themselves.

“Therefore the safety car period was a bit longer than what we would have normally expected.”

How could Merc do anything different?!

I did expect, during the race (not in hindsight!) they would restart based on entertainment argumentation, and without lapped cars in between (although I expected they'd let all cars pass, not a subset). On that notion I was completely baffled by MB not calling Hamilton in. Perhaps it was not the thought a strategist would have with a broader dataset at hand, but I guess in this case ignorance was a bliss!

It is still the wrong decision at the time with the available information. This is how they gauge themselves, did you make the correct decision with the information at hand, without adding the information you have after. The other information that you gather in hindsight can then go into future decision making.
You would have made a different decision and that might have given a better outcome, who knows. The issue I take is in hindsight saying MB f-up and somehow could have avoided this. This was no more than Masi running a Tombola for the win.

Edit: Also if you thought they would let all the cars through then you couldn’t believe they would have ended the safety car…there just wasn’t enough laps left.

Exactly that. Watching live on lap 56, it was clear that there's no way there was time for the cars to all unlap properly and for the final mandated SC lap to take place, before the end of the race distance, given the regulations. At that point was where Masi should have evaluated his TWO options as per the regulations and chosen one of them rather than dreaming up and actioning an until-then-non-existent third possible option/scenario/farce, which is what ended up happening.