2022 pecking order speculation

[LM10]

No 1 factor is the engine imo as the aero is so tightly regulated

No matter how tight the regulations are, the engineers are so amazingly clever that they will still manage to come up with various concepts. We’re talking about tenths after all. There is no way we’re going to see such a tight field in the first year as we’ve seen last season.

[west52keep64]

So actually, if Helmut Marko has said that, we can expect Red Bull to be top dog and dominant early on as they've clearly discovered the secret sauce for 2022? How else would they be able to call out "2 teams", if one of them was not themselves and another team that is closely associated? Unless they had some kind of "spygate" level of access to other teams 2022 designs?

[LM10]

So actually, if Helmut Marko has said that, we can expect Red Bull to be top dog and dominant early on as they've clearly discovered the secret sauce for 2022? How else would they be able to call out "2 teams", if one of them was not themselves and another team that is closely associated? Unless they had some kind of "spygate" level of access to other teams 2022 designs?

Marko simply believes Mercedes and themselves being the fastest again because they were up until now. It can be assumed that their stable teams can manage to come top again. Just because they proved it.

Marko doesn't know anything about the progress or which performance can be expected from any team. All teams are developing blindly at this point and none of them knows how good their car is/will be relative to others. The Media doesn't know either.

[dans79]

Marko doesn't know anything about the progress or which performance can be expected from any team.

This is why he just needs to stop talking sometimes!

[Ryar]

No 1 factor is the engine imo as the aero is so tightly regulated

No matter how tight the regulations are, the engineers are so amazingly clever that they will still manage to come up with various concepts. We’re talking about tenths after all. There is no way we’re going to see such a tight field in the first year as we’ve seen last season.

There is a good probability that the field would be bunched, relatively more than any previous regulations change. The reason why I say that is, FIA (Brawn & Co.) are hell bent on making this an equal opportunity for everyone and are ready to shoot down any advantage that any team is trying to gain. They created a team of engineers of their own to find grey areas, so that they can be clamped down, which wasn't the case in previous regulations. Above all, they are willing use "spirit of the rules" as a reason to simply knock down any circumvention/exploitation of the grey areas, which Pat Symonds claimed they have already done for many queries that came from teams. There have been many TDs they have been issuing in that regard. There will still be some teams that have far better understanding of efficiently building mechanical platforms that can provide an edge. But that's about general efficiency, not finding edge from rules. The engine however, is going to be a distinguishing factor. If Ferrari and Renault haven't done a good job of bringing their PUs on par with Mercedes and Honda, then that would be a major problem, considering homologation rules.

If Pirelli comes up with another version of their black art and never ending new compounds, that would pose challenge for teams that haven't managed it well in the last many years. I wish there would be a way to go back to Bridgestone era where tyres were almost never a consideration in performance differentiation. Personally, it was hillarious to see hard compounds being the faster compound in Saudi and on a few other occasions.

[Stu]

It would be fascinating to know what those TD’s are, do they get ‘published’ on the FIA website?

[lio007]

It would be fascinating to know what those TD’s are, do they get ‘published’ on the FIA website?

Unfortunately not! I still don't get it why a multi-billion $ business can keep these kind of regulations in private.

[Tvetovnato]

So actually, if Helmut Marko has said that, we can expect Red Bull to be top dog and dominant early on as they've clearly discovered the secret sauce for 2022? How else would they be able to call out "2 teams", if one of them was not themselves and another team that is closely associated? Unless they had some kind of "spygate" level of access to other teams 2022 designs?

He doesn’t have a good track record of predicting form before a season. We often heard him say that this will be Red Bulls year, we are only one tenth behind Mercedes now etc, only to be trashed when the season starts. And that was usually after the pre-season testing was done. This year he has absolutely no clue. But he likes to talk as we know.

[DChemTech]

It would be fascinating to know what those TD’s are, do they get ‘published’ on the FIA website?

Unfortunately not! I still don't get it why a multi-billion $ business can keep these kind of regulations in private.

I think you mention the answer - because it acts like a multi-billion $ business rather than a sporting agency

[west52keep64]

... "spirit of the rules" ... Pat Symonds ...

There's a bitter irony seeing this phrase and this name in the same sentence...

Anyway, I do think you are right, the FIA have put more effort than ever before in to these regulations to ensure they produce the results they want. There's a great article on this site that illustrates how restrictive the new regulations are, the front and rear wings are almost spec items now. There is some flexibility to allow variation in the look of the cars, but it's clear the FIA have worked incredibly hard to make sure there are no loop holes that can be exploited like the double diffusers. I don't think there will be a magic solution that one or two teams have found, I think the fastest car will simply be the one that brings all the small elements together in the most efficient way. I expect those that have spent more time and resources working on their 2022 cars will be the quickest out of the box.

[Big Tea]

Do you think this may signal the start of a new 'economy drive'?
If the cars are that equal, and little leeway to gain on the competition the low hanging fruit is to make the car lighter. The finish weight is set due to base weight so clipping a KG or two off the early laps will be a big bonus, as long as there is fuel to reach the finish.

[Zynerji]

I think AlphaTauri is my dark-horse pick of 2022. Gasley and Tsunoda is a very strong pairing, and the RBR shared engineering philosophy structure could easily put them .10s behind RBR, where ever that team lines up.

If Q1 is covered 1-20 by .5s, it will be a gigantic win, and we will be in for an epic season.

I'm quite looking forward to it!

[LM10]

I don’t see any customer team fighting for the title in the first year.

[Hoffman900]

I think AlphaTauri is my dark-horse pick of 2022. Gasley and Tsunoda is a very strong pairing, and the RBR shared engineering philosophy structure could easily put them .10s behind RBR, where ever that team lines up.

If Q1 is covered 1-20 by .5s, it will be a gigantic win, and we will be in for an epic season.

I'm quite looking forward to it!

Not necessarily, we’ve seen tight grids in qualifying not produce close race finishes, for a myriad of reasons. Even this year, Lewis and Max routinely lapped up into the top ten.

It’s also illusionary. Like in spec classes, the grid is close on paper, but realistically, .5” might as well be 5”, and week in / week out, the same people / teams are in contention to win.

[Zynerji]

I think AlphaTauri is my dark-horse pick of 2022. Gasley and Tsunoda is a very strong pairing, and the RBR shared engineering philosophy structure could easily put them .10s behind RBR, where ever that team lines up.

If Q1 is covered 1-20 by .5s, it will be a gigantic win, and we will be in for an epic season.

I'm quite looking forward to it!

Not necessarily, we’ve seen tight grids in qualifying not produce close race finishes, for a myriad of reasons. Even this year, Lewis and Max routinely lapped up into the top ten.

It’s also illusionary. Like in spec classes, the grid is close on paper, but realistically, .5” might as well be 5”, and week in / week out, the same people / teams are in contention to win.

Max and Lewis already bring 3 tenths, no matter the chassis. I expect that to be more pronounced with the tightening of the car performance.

I just want a bit of that 2012 flavor with like 8 winning drivers in a season. We have 8 teams with GP winning drivers. If the cars are close, I expect a fight.