2021 Cost Cap Rumours and Speculation

[littlebigcat]

If I was very good at the politics of a sport, and I knew I was in a minor breach of a regulation, leaking that I was in a major breach would be excellent damage limitation.

[mwillems]

How is it rich? The spent within the rules when they had that money, then the rules changed and they still spent within the rules. Only one team didn't and they would have almost certainly benefitted from it. Benefits from outside of the rules should be punished, as Horner has consistently called for, so why is it that if you apply Horners logic against Horner, then it is "haters"? Seems to be "fair players" to me.

Red Bull say they submitted their books and it was under the cost-cap. So something happened during the review process that converted their numbers into being above the cost cap. You do agree to this point, do you not?
So what forces and pressures, method of accounting, or calculation of spend, would have resulted in this discrepancy?

Other teams say they had to move personnel to other projects or took a step back from the forefront, or salary cap their workers, maybe even some worked for reduced wage with some added bonus or salary back pay. No one said they had to reduce spend on performance, most if not all teams reduced staff or salary.

Red Bull say this is how much it cost them, and an outside entity is saying "No it couldn't have been, that's not possible." So the FIA, since they aren't a F1 operation, might have looked to other team's spend or method of calculation and applied some sort of adjustment. Now Wolff is determined on having an influence on the punishment for the breach, obviously with the intent to benefit Mercedes.

It's not about transformation but interpretation. RB interpreted the rules one way and nine teams and the FIA interpreted them another. Irrespective of how it came about they overspent and the punishments were made clear.

As to how they overspent I dont think it matters, staff numbers feed into performance as does most of the spend. Simply pointing at catering and absence pay seems like misdirection. Why would anyone think they are not included?

In the same way that rear wing being .4mm out is a "clear breach" and the piunishment fair - Horner.

But this isn't a .4mm discrepency, it's much bigger and I agree with Horner, it is a clear breach and a punishment is fair.

As to whether it was an administrative error or a deliberate pushing of the boundaries, my personal view is that RB are always pushing and push too far.

[dans79]

I already mentioned a few times, it's an extremely complex world of numbers. Red Bull even now are maintaining they didn't overspend, so it's hard to believe a developer, DBA or an IT person would know this. Heck, they wouldn't even properly complete ethics, harrassment and compliance trainings allocated to them on time, forget about financial understanding.

One of the first things I did out of college was financial audits, mainly because it was the only way of getting your foot in the door. I eventually moved onto developing and maintaining some of the systems used to perform the audits quickly and efficiently. A word of advise, never underestimate how much your tech staff might or might not know!

[mwillems]

My prediction: A fine, say 10-20 million, and a 200 point dock in constructor points for last year and this year. FIA says "we punished" in order to save face, but not severely enough to change any outcome. RB still 2nd last year, and with this year being already 165 points ahead, and a fast car, they could realistically still win it this year.

I suspect they will just fine RB and the fine will be paid from next years budget, in the same way that Ferrari lost only future performance for their engine shenanigans. I expect the fine will be something along the lines of twice the overspend, once to cover the spend and once to claw back any advantage, but I think everyone knows it would have tipped them over the edge in the championship so they will not care.

Just enough to not harm anyone or too much but enough to say they did something and try to keep some of the sports reputation.

it will be interesting to see how Ross Brawn responds to this when he is finally asked, I don't feel that he is someone who will bend the truth too much.

[Alvareth]

I'm amused at the concern about the leak. IMO whoever leaked the info (if there is one who leaked it) should be commended like a good whistle-blower.

There is a difference in the audience. There is no problem with asking clarification (i.e. leaking info) to the independent FIA auditors. But leaking beforehand to the public is a problem. We got the clear message about the affecting teams from the competition.

[chrisc90]

My prediction: A fine, say 10-20 million, and a 200 point dock in constructor points for last year and this year. FIA says "we punished" in order to save face, but not severely enough to change any outcome. RB still 2nd last year, and with this year being already 165 points ahead, and a fast car, they could realistically still win it this year.

I suspect they will just fine RB and the fine will be paid from next years budget, in the same way that Ferrari lost only future performance for their engine shenanigans. I expect the fine will be something along the lines of twice the overspend, once to cover the spend and once to claw back any advantage, but I think everyone knows it would have tipped them over the edge in the championship so they will not care.

Just enough to not harm anyone or too much but enough to say they did something and try to keep some of the sports reputation.

That's IF the fine comes out the 2022 budget. Which I dont think it is from looking at the sanctions list. As only a reduction of the cap can be carried over.

[Unc1eM0nty]

Oracle Red Bull Racing is considered to be in Procedural and Minor Overspend Breaches of the Financial Regulations; and Williams Racing has complied with the Financial Regulations in respect of the 2021 Reporting Period with the exception of a previous Procedural Breach in regard to which the Cost Cap Administration entered into an ABA with Williams in May 2022. This Procedural Breach was then remediated by Williams in a timely, cooperative and transparent manner.

This by far the most interesting part, seems they have not rectified the procedural breach like Williams has!

Williams were late submitting their paperwork, that is all

[KeiKo403]

So let’s say they get a reduction in the cap for the following season, as the breach was for 2021 the reduction is on 2022 budget, any reduction could mean an instant breach of this years cap too. Especially if they were counting absenteeism and catering outside of the cap for 2022 too and now have to bring it inside the cap.

[Sofa King]

If the punishment has no teeth, then all the other teams will decide a minor breach is required to compete

My prediction: A fine, say 10-20 million, and a 200 point dock in constructor points for last year and this year. FIA says "we punished" in order to save face, but not severely enough to change any outcome. RB still 2nd last year, and with this year being already 165 points ahead, and a fast car, they could realistically still win it this year.

I suspect they will just fine RB and the fine will be paid from next years budget, in the same way that Ferrari lost only future performance for their engine shenanigans. I expect the fine will be something along the lines of twice the overspend, once to cover the spend and once to claw back any advantage, but I think everyone knows it would have tipped them over the edge in the championship so they will not care.

Just enough to not harm anyone or too much but enough to say they did something and try to keep some of the sports reputation.

it will be interesting to see how Ross Brawn responds to this when he is finally asked, I don't feel that he is someone who will bend the truth too much.

[dans79]

So let’s say they get a reduction in the cap for the following season, as the breach was for 2021 the reduction is on 2022 budget, any reduction could mean an instant breach of this years cap too. Especially if they were counting absenteeism and catering outside of the cap for 2022 too and now have to bring it inside the cap.

Yes, depending on the nature of the breach, and if and when it was rectified, it could have a knock on effect, unless the FIA hand waves it away!

[mendis]

I already mentioned a few times, it's an extremely complex world of numbers. Red Bull even now are maintaining they didn't overspend, so it's hard to believe a developer, DBA or an IT person would know this. Heck, they wouldn't even properly complete ethics, harrassment and compliance trainings allocated to them on time, forget about financial understanding.

One of the first things I did out of college was financial audits, mainly because it was the only way of getting your foot in the door. I eventually moved onto developing and maintaining some of the systems used to perform the audits quickly and efficiently. A word of advise, never underestimate how much your tech staff might or might not know!

For the record, I am computer software engineer, now in senior level management with 20 years work experience in Software and 10 years of prior education in computers and an MBA in finance, working for a large technology corporate in cloud systems. I perfectly understand the skills of not just tech staff, but also that of many other people in within procurement (licenses, 3rd party tools, open source etc,,) and finance (tech budgets, forecasting, reimbursements, claims, vendor invoice paymets). I have a good view into where most individuals within procurement and finance stands and who does our auditing and how many external consultants verify our information before it is made public. When I made statement about tech staff not completing their own relevant trainings, I really mean it as I go through the pain of driving those within my org and in a few cases, we have issued warning letters to folks that did not complete Workplace Harassment trainings.

[Alvareth]

So let’s say they get a reduction in the cap for the following season, as the breach was for 2021 the reduction is on 2022 budget, any reduction could mean an instant breach of this years cap too. Especially if they were counting absenteeism and catering outside of the cap for 2022 too and now have to bring it inside the cap.

Yes, depending on the nature of the breach, and if and when it was rectified, it could have a knock on effect, unless the FIA hand waves it away!

Or Red Bull goes to Austin, saves the constructors title and sends everyone on vacation. See you all next year. Saves a huge amount of money.

[chrisc90]

So let’s say they get a reduction in the cap for the following season, as the breach was for 2021 the reduction is on 2022 budget, any reduction could mean an instant breach of this years cap too. Especially if they were counting absenteeism and catering outside of the cap for 2022 too and now have to bring it inside the cap.

Yes, depending on the nature of the breach, and if and when it was rectified, it could have a knock on effect, unless the FIA hand waves it away!

Or Red Bull goes to Austin, saves the constructors title and sends everyone on vacation.

I was thinking that. Dont think it would go down well for Perez though. But they could just send 1 car there.

[littlebigcat]

Or Red Bull goes to Austin, saves the constructors title and sends everyone on vacation.

I was thinking that. Dont think it would go down well for Perez though. But they could just send 1 car there.

Teams are contractually obliged to attend races and are fined if they do not turn up to run both cars.

[Quantum]

He was well within his rights at that point to say that and Red Bull continues to maintain the stance that they didn't breach the cost cap. Unless FIA says it, anyone that levels such allegations without any evidence are liable for defamation. Now that FIA has mentioned it, not just Toto, anyone on the street can say what they want on the basis of FIA statement.

And you don't think that makes Christian Horner a liar?

How?

He said the reports were false.
He claimed defamation of character.
He threatened legal action.

Are you intentionally ignoring reality here?