2022 São Paulo Grand Prix - Interlagos, Nov 11 - 13

[Gooch]

Clearly there was enough evidence for the stewards to believe he wouldn't have made the corner, which I think is enough to justify the penalty.

[RZS10]

They decided based on video evidence, not telemetry, at least the decision doc makes it sound like that.

As I said earlier, Max had every right to take his line in his maneuver and Hamilton simply didn't leave the room. And, evidently, never intended to.

Thanks to the guidelines they both raced for "ahead of the apex" in T1 and had really bad lines into T2 and Max surely had the right to go for it, he just should have been slower in order to be capable of taking a tight line, i think that's the main point for the stewards, the data provided by Gooch a few posts back shows that he went in really hot.

Max has a similar rotation to Lewis several frames (~5m?) back when the contact occurs, he's not remotely aiming towards the ideal line or the apex of T3.

Good analysis and some good points, but I do not agree with your conclusion. I think the part you are not looking at, especially in the above statement. The line directly after that corner, it is towards to inside of T3 which is in an outward direction directly after T2. So it is an unfavorable line to cling to the apex n T2, you just want to touch it to have straight line as possible from after T1 to T3.

The point there is that for the position he is in he has very little of the rotation you'd want to have there, so little in fact that it likely would not have even taken him to apex of T3 when ideally you'd want to open that corner up in your approach (ideal line) - our statements aren't at odds at all.

One thing i struggle to understand is...

For me, Max being able to provide space at exit is just as important as Lewis having to provide space at entry. If Max failed to provide space at exit and compromised Hamilton, that's a clear blame on and penalty for Max. The problem is that we never know if he would have been able to provide space at exit with the speed he had, because there was a collision due to there being insufficient space at entry. And that, in my view, was not Max' mistake, yet he is penalized for it (or for hypothetically not being able to provide space at exit due to too high speed). That's where I disagree with the verdict.

But he was not in a position where he'd be the one to dictate their lines through the corner, if he would have been ahead at that point, sure, yea - but he was the car behind, he closed a gap of half a wheelbase briefly before contact, his job in that situation would be keeping his car in that tight space between the sausage curb and Lewis' car, he very likely would not have been capable of doing so even with 30-50cm more space.

Maybe that's the point of contention for most? Who "owned" (i hate that term) the corner? Who could dictate the line?

I don't think the penalty was for "hypothetically not being able to provide space at exit due to too high speed" (and contrary to others i'm not making this point) but for "they would have smacked into each other even with a bit more space since Max came in too hot", which i think is a reasonable assumption.

Or is the main issue for you that you believe those hypothetical scenarios should not be considered at all?

Because the question then is from how far back a car can come where one could still argue "we don't know what the outcome would have been, maybe he could have made the corner", this could easily apply to a legit divebomb, for example - so imho they have to consider this.

[DChemTech]

Or is the main issue for you that you believe those hypothetical scenarios should not be considered at all?

Because the question then is from how far back a car can come where one could still argue "we don't know what the outcome would have been, maybe he could have made the corner", this could easily apply to a legit divebomb, for example - so imho they have to consider this.

I think that, given Max was alongside at least partially in the previous corner and still substantially in this one, the corner did not belong to anyone - there should be space for two to go through side by side from entry to exit. And yes I do prefer hypothetical scenarios to be avoided, and a hypothetical scenario evaluation would not have been necessary here had sufficient room been provided, which in my opinion Max was entitled to given his track position. This was not a divebomb that suddenly came from far afield. If enough room was provided on entry, we'd have known with certainty if Max would have made it or not, and if he carried blame for a collision or not. Now, both had a role in the contact or avoidance thereof.

[GrizzleBoy]

Looking at the telemetry on F1-tempo, I see why they gave a penalty.

Both Hamilton and Verstappen rocketed through T1 (Hamilton via apex speed, Verstappen under braking) and were quicker to T2 faster than at any other point in the race, Hamilton 0.11s faster and Verstappen 0.19s faster despite the SC restart!!!

Then they both pile into T2. Hamilton is going a bit quicker than his average lap but it is far from the quickest he will run through there during the day. On a better line he'll actually beat his entry speed on Lap 10 and annihilate it on his fastest lap. Meanwhile Verstappen is 3-6 kph faster than the next time he runs through there on the soft tire (20 laps less fuel) and actually 2 kph faster at that point than he will be on his fastest lap, all while on that incredibly tight line. I'm not sure how one can expect to him to make the corner.

To me, it makes sense to think that getting into that gap required driving is such a manner that he would not complete the corner.


https://i.ibb.co/MnMK2MQ/ham.png

https://i.ibb.co/DDMFxqv/ver.png

This is what many have been trying to point out and likely why the stewards gave the penalty.

Max had no intention of rotating his vehicle around that corner in a wheel to wheel fashion, because it simply wouldn't have been possible at that speed and angle. These 2022 cars have nowhere near enough front end or general manoeuvrability.

His sole intention from entry of T1 was to make sure that his car was to the right of Hamilton at all times so that he could dictate where Hamilton could go. Essentially to block Lewis' path through the exit of the corner.

If he were a meter or so further forward, he could have and therefore would have floored that Red Bull completely to the edge of the track in a straight line after passing the apex, almost travelling 90 degrees to the racing line and either put Lewis off the track or made him almost park and wait till Max slowed near the track edge and began driving in the correct direction (i.e. The exact move from Abu Dhabi lap 1 and countless other divebombs from Jeddah, plus the failed attempt at Monza).

For me, Max being able to provide space at exit is just as important as Lewis having to provide space at entry. If Max failed to provide space at exit and compromised Hamilton, that's a clear blame on and penalty for Max. The problem is that we never know if he would have been able to provide space at exit with the speed he had, because there was a collision due to there being insufficient space at entry. And that, in my view, was not Max' mistake, yet he is penalized for it (or for hypothetically not being able to provide space at exit due to too high speed). That's where I disagree with the verdict.

Maxs angle of approach means he was always going to cross lh line and always force lh off and most likely not make the corner him self, lh has alrdy picked his line before max has even finshed turning in from t1... Can see the gap dissappearig but decides to try another dive bomb...

No, max is fault for no ceeding, or in his words, he decided to just crash. As max said him self... The gap, as noted by the stewards although look at, was not the primary reason the crash happened, if lh moves over and gives enough space, he would still have made contact, lh qvoids it and goes off track then max has just done an illigal over take, so i really dont understand max fans reasoning here, max screwed up seen red and didnt engage his brain

And as others have noted, including more neutral observers, it is not clear that Max would not have made the corner, and I really do not see the reasoning of some here that he clearly would not have made it.

All I observe is that if LH would have left sufficient room and they went off, the blame would have been absolutely clear, while now, it is not.

Well let's weigh up the probabilities of Maxs actions after the apex.

After telemetry shows that Maxs speed into T2 on that lap was the highest of the whole race, even faster than the lap he set his fastest time on, all while being completely out of position on corner entry do you think Max more likely intended to:

A: Reach the apex then brake harshly to make sure he was going slowly enough to allow his RB18 to hug a 1 car width line round the inside of the corner, while Lewis carried more optimum speed through the apex and along the next straight

or

B: Continue to carry the highest speed he ever approached that corner througout the whole race in hopes to gain a position on track where he could eventually block Hamilton at the exit (think about his crazy dives at Jeddah last year) , which would always require his trajectory to intersect with the racing line of the corner?


I think one is much more likely than the other.

[DChemTech]

I think one is much more likely than the other.

Well, we would have known for certain if space was provided, and I'd happily see Max receive the blame if the outcome was as you predicted. But now we can only speculate and I am not too interested in hypothetical outcomes of hypothetical scenarios. I care about what actually proceeded, and that was a situation where Max could have backed out (and would have been the wiser doing so), and Lewis should have left more room. Neither did, and with that, both have a role in what happened next, being what I would classify a racing incident. By that I stand.

[basti313]

I think one is much more likely than the other.

Well, we would have known for certain if space was provided, and I'd happily see Max receive the blame if the outcome was as you predicted. But now we can only speculate and I am not too interested in hypothetical outcomes of hypothetical scenarios. I care about what actually proceeded, and that was a situation where Max could have backed out (and would have been the wiser doing so), and Lewis should have left more room. Neither did, and with that, both have a role in what happened next, being what I would classify a racing incident. By that I stand.

Why not both a 5sec? I think the only benefit of having the (mostly stupidly given) 5sec for crashes is that you can throw it at stupid moves that still are more like "racing incident".

The rest I see the same, but again the penalty would be stupid if you think about it:
If Ham leaves space...Ver is still too hot into the corner. There are two options:
- He strongly compromises the apex speed and is a sitting duck on the straight. No realistic option, right?
- He keeps full push and will hit Hamilton on the exit on the rear wheel.

In the current ruling he would get for the hit on the rear wheel a useless 10sec like Ham in Stone and not a drive through, which is the only correct penalty for this.

So the more I think about it....Ham is totally right on crashing into his car on the apex, most probably best result still for Ham.

[Vanja #66]

Hamilton is going a bit quicker than his average lap but it is far from the quickest he will run through there during the day. On a better line he'll actually beat his on each of the next 4 laps and annihilate it at the end of the race. Meanwhile Verstappen is 3-6 kph faster than the next time he runs through there on the soft tire (20 laps less fuel) and actually 2 kph faster at that point than he will be on his fastest lap, all while on that incredibly tight line. I'm not sure how one can expect to him to make the corner.

Those speed differences from Max are very small actually, especially considering his car must have been compromised the rest of the race after being hit and considering he was surrounded with slower cars until the last few laps. If he was 10kmh faster than fastest lap, that would be something. It's a speed measurement at one single point and doesn't tell a lot on its own.

Centrifugal forces depend on speed squared, lets take 6kmh difference as the worst outcome. 6/146 is 0.041, which squared is 0.00168, which means 0.16% difference in centrifugal forces. That's far from detrimental.

[henry]

Hamilton is going a bit quicker than his average lap but it is far from the quickest he will run through there during the day. On a better line he'll actually beat his on each of the next 4 laps and annihilate it at the end of the race. Meanwhile Verstappen is 3-6 kph faster than the next time he runs through there on the soft tire (20 laps less fuel) and actually 2 kph faster at that point than he will be on his fastest lap, all while on that incredibly tight line. I'm not sure how one can expect to him to make the corner.

Those speed differences from Max are very small actually, especially considering his car must have been compromised the rest of the race after being hit and considering he was surrounded with slower cars until the last few laps. If he was 10kmh faster than fastest lap, that would be something. It's a speed measurement at one single point and doesn't tell a lot on its own.

Centrifugal forces depend on speed squared, lets take 6kmh difference as the worst outcome. 6/146 is 0.041, which squared is 0.00168, which means 0.16% difference in centrifugal forces. That's far from detrimental.

I think the correct calculation is 152/146^2, which yields 8% more centripetal acceleration. I think that probably would be a challenge to hold on a tighter line, which increases the acceleration.

[RZS10]

Or is the main issue for you that you believe those hypothetical scenarios should not be considered at all?

Because the question then is from how far back a car can come where one could still argue "we don't know what the outcome would have been, maybe he could have made the corner", this could easily apply to a legit divebomb, for example - so imho they have to consider this.

I think that, given Max was alongside at least partially in the previous corner and still substantially in this one, the corner did not belong to anyone - there should be space for two to go through side by side from entry to exit. And yes I do prefer hypothetical scenarios to be avoided, and a hypothetical scenario evaluation would not have been necessary here had sufficient room been provided, which in my opinion Max was entitled to given his track position. This was not a divebomb that suddenly came from far afield. If enough room was provided on entry, we'd have known with certainty if Max would have made it or not, and if he carried blame for a collision or not. Now, both had a role in the contact or avoidance thereof.

Fair enough.
I just believe that even with the guidelines the decisions this season and prior indicate that if the overtaking driver is behind he should stick to the inside.
Of course one could argue forever what is or isn't 'late' but in the end those situations are marginal between racing incident and 60/40 or 70/30 - what they are certainly not is being completely black&white like some seem to suggest.

[Gooch]

It's not just about speed. Centrifugal force is also dependent on radius of the corner which will always be diminished when you are running the inside.

IE lets say Verstappen was set up to run a 38m turning radius as shown in the image below. Hamilton drives so that he leaves half a meter between the two cars, a 40.5m radius. This would result in a 6% difference in centrifugal force, assuming they are running the same speed. If Verstappen is going even 3 kph faster than Hamilton it is a 11% difference which I would absolutely consider significant in a sport where the difference between drivers in equal cars is usually measured in tenths of a percent. Makes me think he would understeer big time if they had not made contact so early.



Things get even worse if you consider a more normal line, it would look more like 50m. Assuming equal speed but different radii and reduced weight (I am going to assume 90kg lost from Lap 7 to 67), that would be a 30% difference in force. I don't think anyone is driving that far off the limit at any point in the race unless the safety car is deployed. Once again suggests that even the 38m circle is a bit too tight for the kind of trajectory he was on.



Obviously the actual line is not a constant circle but I really don't feel like drawing and finding min. radius, which would likely only serve to make the difference between the two more severe.

Also, to give you an idea of accuracy for this ridiculous rounded system. Assuming Hamilton had a 900kg car, 136 kph/37.77m/s velocity, and 40.5m radius in Case 1 and 810 kg car, 158kph/43.88m/s velocity, and 50m radius in Case 2, that would be a 1.6% difference in force between the two, with Case 1 being a little higher. We know it was actually slightly lower in reality because in Case 1 he definitely tried to run a larger arc through the corner, hence the lack of space.

edit: Also, Max was not in traffic on his fastest lap. He passed Perez into T1 (actually sets him up great for T2) and then has a 1.6 second gap to Alonso.

[DDopey]

It's not just about speed. Centrifugal force is also dependent on radius of the corner which will always be diminished when you are running the inside.

IE lets say Verstappen was set up to run a 38m turning radius as shown in the image below. Hamilton drives so that he leaves half a meter between the two cars, a 40.5m radius. This would result in a 6% difference in centrifugal force, assuming they are running the same speed. If Verstappen is going even 3 kph faster than Hamilton it is a 11% difference which I would absolutely consider significant in a sport where the difference between drivers in equal cars is usually measured in tenths of a percent. Makes me think he would understeer big time if they had not made contact so early.

https://i.ibb.co/h2WqkBY/radius.png

Things get even worse if you consider a more normal line, it would look more like 50m. Assuming equal speed but different radii and reduced weight (I am going to assume 90kg lost from Lap 7 to 67), that would be a 30% difference in force. I don't think anyone is driving that far off the limit at any point in the race unless the safety car is deployed. Once again suggests that even the 38m circle is a bit too tight for the kind of trajectory he was on.

https://i.ibb.co/Kj8K9CB/radius.png

Obviously the actual line is not a constant circle but I really don't feel like drawing and finding min. radius, which would likely only serve to make the difference between the two more severe.

But I do not think they normally go on the limit of the car through that corner, so it is hard to judge. They line the car up for the next corner and the straight, so usually take the line a bit wider, which actually makes the positioning of Lewis a bit stranger.

[Gooch]

They are on the limits, just not in the very approximated way I describe.

As you say, the line is much more nuanced with the drivers sacrificing T1 to set up T2 which sets up T3. Also, they aren't running a constant velocity but actually increasing in speed through the T2, at least on the normal line. ALSO, the almighty downforce will allow more centrifugal force at higher speeds so it's not like the force should be equal every lap anyway. But I think it's wrong to say they're not on the limit. If they weren't then they would go faster.

The reason for the poor T2 set up can be seen in the telemetry. Compared to his fastest lap Hamilton's minimum speed in Turn 1 is 4 kph faster on Lap 7 and 10-15 kph faster than he was on Laps 8-11. To me this makes it pretty obvious that Hamilton saw Verstappen coming up on the outside braking into T1 and deliberately let off the brakes to keep his nose in front (he 100% would have been passed if he didn't IMO, Max was like 4 tenths faster than normal from the S/F line to T1 exit). Hamilton rolls through the middle of T1 so quickly he has no choice but to run wide and compromise his T2 exit.

At this point he can't see Verstappen but knows that Max went into the corner even faster than he did, so presumably he has blown it as well, possibly even worse than Hamilton. So Hamilton figures it's safe to run a tight line through T2 to try and pull away on the next straight, Max should be just far enough back out of T1 that he can't possible justify staying alongside. The only problem is that Max is rolls into T2 quicker than he will all race, similar to what Hamilton just did, so they come together instead.

At least that's what I think happened. Very much a case of two top drivers on the absolute limit although I still appreciate the penalty because I think Verstappen would've been off track after T2.

[AR3-GP]

They are on the limits, just not in the very approximated way I describe.

As you say, the line is much more nuanced with the drivers sacrificing T1 to set up T2 which sets up T3. Also, they aren't running a constant velocity but actually increasing in speed through the corner. ALSO, the almighty downforce will allow more centrifugal force at higher speeds so it's not like the force should be equal every lap anyway.

The reason for the poor T2 set up can be seen in the telemetry. Compared to his fastest lap Hamilton's minimum speed in Turn 1 is 4 kph faster on Lap 7 and 10-15 kph faster than he was on Laps 8-11. To me this makes it pretty obvious that Hamilton saw Verstappen coming up on the outside braking into T1 and deliberately let off the brakes to keep his nose in front (he 100% would have been passed if he didn't IMO). He rolls through the middle of T1 so quickly he actually has to slow down a bit more as he comes off the kerb and still ends up on the far right of the track. At this point he can't see Verstappen but knows that Max went into the corner even faster than he did, so presumably he has blown it as well, possibly even worse than Hamilton. At this point he thinks it's safe to run a tight line through T2 to try and pull away on the next straight, Max should be so far behind that he can't possible justify staying alongside. The only problem is that Max is now doing the same thing Hamilton just did, rolling into T2 faster than he would all race, so they come together instead.

At least that's what I think happened.

Max is taking a wider radius so he by physics would be able to carry more speed through the "apex" of T1. Assuming cars are generating similar levels of downforce that is...My impression was that Lewis had a low downforce setup. He was very fast in sector 1.

[bluechris]

I don't understand why FIA letting this things happening constantly. Put up the ruling that any driver who has anyone beside him by a wheel or more, he must give him space. Let them to do late braking or anything and penalize only the forcing the other driver off track.
Imo this is more simple and the drivers will learn to respect each other and give them space.

[Gooch]

Max is taking a wider radius so he by physics would be able to carry more speed through the "apex" of T1. Assuming cars are generating similar levels of downforce that is...My impression was that Lewis had a low downforce setup. He was very fast in sector 1.

Yes, but I think it's understandable for Hamilton to think he still 'blew' the corner (obviously not fully blown, but blown in the sense that he lost time). I mean, look at that Schumi/Kimi 2012 video and you see those two practically locked wheels through the entire corner, there's no reason to think the other driver would back out. At the entry to T1 Max is flying by Hamilton and at the midpoint of the corner he's more than a car width's from the Mercedes, apexing almost dead middle of the track, running the same speed on a longer line. Normally the car on the inside would make big gains on corner exit in this situation but Hamilton bottled it a bit himself which hurt his own opportunity to pull ahead and then of course Verstappen is an ace at toeing the limit to keep the car from falling behind before T2.

If it was any other driver I think either could've done the exact same things they did and easily made it work.