This season should be very different to 2022 due to three factors:
1) The teams understand the cars much better, which will lead to the lower performance dispersion we are already seeing and makes it more likely it will take much less points to win the WDC and constructors.
2) The initial pecking order is less important this year due to the different dispersion in points. With 23 races and 6 sprints, the theoretical maximum a driver can achieve is 646 points vs 572 least year. However, in 2023, only 12% of the points over 3 races will be awarded in the next 2 months vs. 19% over 4 races including a sprint during the same period in 2022. We all saw how dramatically different the season ended vs. the results after 3 races in 2022. There is a big window to develop and mix up the order between now and the end of April regardless the results over the next three races.
3) With the engine freeze, we are much closer to the maximum performance for this formula than we were at this time last year. Along with the cost cap and wind tunnel time, that should make it tougher for Red Bull carry and maintain its relative performance advantage from 2022 throughout.
It also seems many teams, except for Mercedes, gave up on 2022 early due to Red Bull dominance and shifted focus to development for this car. I suspect Mercedes has accepted this reality and is why we are already hearing about a big upgrade that won’t come until Baku or Imola, but unlike last year, with the porpoising under control and a more stable platform, the big upgrade rumored for last year will actually happen this year. Similar to last year, they may be closer to the 4th and 5th place teams initially than the top two. I’d also be very surprised if Ferrari, which shifted focus to 2023 early and under better management, will remain behind Red Bull for long.
With that in mind, I mostly agree with Ali623’s pecking order with a few minor adjustments
Red Bull
Ferrari (+0.1s)
Mercedes (+0.4s)
AM (+0.5s)
Alpine (+0.6/7s)
AR (+0.9s)
McLaren/Haas (+1.1/2s)
AT/Williams (1.4/5s)
Mr5in1 wrote: ↑27 Feb 2023, 16:34
ali623 wrote: ↑27 Feb 2023, 13:00
ali623 wrote: ↑17 Feb 2023, 12:15
Red Bull/Ferrari
Mercedes (+0.2/3s)
Alpine (+0.6/7s)
McLaren/AM (+0.8/9s)
Haas/AR (+1-1.2s)
AT/Williams (1.2-1.5s)
Slightly revising my predictions now testing is over,
Red Bull
Mercedes/Ferrari (+0.2/3s)
Alpine/AM (+0.6/7s)
McLaren/Haas/AR (+0.8/1s)
AT/Williams (1.2-1.5s)
Not really sure about that Alpine prediction, purely going off the positivity and comments from the team.
I agree wholeheartedly with your revision in the pecking order and I am also very curious to see how Alpine go in the race, I liked their confidence in not dropping fuel or running softer tyres in testing.
The only other one I'm unsure of is McLaren I really don't think they are slowest but I'm not sure where they are in the mid pack so difficult to guess
