Which team is most likely to catch redbull before 2026 discussion

[Spoutnik]

I think McLaren, Ferrari could each be at RB's level at the start of next year

I agree.
Both car just have opposite natural quality atm
Ferrari : start/stop, top speed
McLaren : high speed/high radius turn, low efficiency tracks
But McLaren has improved their flaws more than Ferrari have improved their owned with the last package you have to say.

I still think as "constructor" team rather than customer, it can be easier for Ferrari to catch up

[AR3-GP]

[Sevach]

I think McLaren, Ferrari could each be at RB's level at the start of next year

I agree.
Both car just have opposite natural quality atm
Ferrari : start/stop, top speed
McLaren : high speed/high radius turn, low efficiency tracks
But McLaren has improved their flaws more than Ferrari have improved their owned with the last package you have to say.

I still think as "constructor" team rather than customer, it can be easier for Ferrari to catch up

Under engine freeze the benefits of being a factory team drops a lot.

[ali623]

Depends what you mean by catch? In terms of relative car performance, I would say Mercedes/Ferrari/McLaren/AM are all capable of catching RB as early as next season. The grid will continue to converge, there's already been massive convergence from 2022-2023 already. Honestly, currently I don't think the McLaren is that far off the RB performance-wise at this stage of the season, if at all, Max is probably making more difference than anything now.

Beating the RB/Max combo is another story, and I don't see anyone doing that any time soon as long as the RB is one of the quickest cars. Red Bull are just too good operationally and Verstappen is the best driver on the grid right now. Mercedes/Hamilton are probably still the best bet if anyone can.

[Spoutnik]

I think McLaren, Ferrari could each be at RB's level at the start of next year

I agree.
Both car just have opposite natural quality atm
Ferrari : start/stop, top speed
McLaren : high speed/high radius turn, low efficiency tracks
But McLaren has improved their flaws more than Ferrari have improved their owned with the last package you have to say.

I still think as "constructor" team rather than customer, it can be easier for Ferrari to catch up

Under engine freeze the benefits of being a factory team drops a lot.

Even if it drops it can play a lot I believe.
See recent comments about Merc being able to run more HP in race trim without the zero pod concept.

[Sevach]

Beating Verstappen-Red Bull over a season will still be hard, but i think next season we may see more variety in winners.
As of right now Mclaren is the closest, they got a --- ton of windtunnel time, they look like the best bet, i few nip and tucks and they can get there.
Mercedes is gonna finish second despite the fact that they didn't have a great car at any point of the season, who knows what they are cooking in Brackley.
Ferrari does Ferrari things and is very inconsistent from track to track... impossible to guess how good their next car will be out of the box.
And Aston Martin started strong, has been pegged back massively and is crawling over the finish line... is this part of a master stroke where they devoted resources early to 2024? Improving their factory tools maybe? Or they just hit a ceiling and don't know what to do? Can Fallows pull one over his former boss?

Even if it drops it can play a lot I believe.
See recent comments about Merc being able to run more HP in race trim without the zero pod concept.

True, if it isn't as influential as it normally is, it's still a resource to make some time.
Mclaren and Aston just take delivery and that's it.

[Spoutnik]

[PikeStance]

I agree.
Both car just have opposite natural quality atm
Ferrari : start/stop, top speed
McLaren : high speed/high radius turn, low efficiency tracks
But McLaren has improved their flaws more than Ferrari have improved their owned with the last package you have to say.

I still think as "constructor" team rather than customer, it can be easier for Ferrari to catch up

Under engine freeze the benefits of being a factory team drops a lot.

Even if it drops it can play a lot I believe.
See recent comments about Merc being able to run more HP in race trim without the zero pod concept.

Ferrari and McLaren use two different PUs. I believe Mclaren uses its own gearbox and only uses Mercedes HPP PU like Mercedes. Most of the differences in performance will be in areas outside of the Powertrains, like chassis, aero, suspension, etc... Outside of of Powetrains reliability, I do not see how Ferrari OR Mercedes (Gearbox difference) would have any advantage. Zero pod refers to aero and not to the Powertrain.

[Spoutnik]

Under engine freeze the benefits of being a factory team drops a lot.

Even if it drops it can play a lot I believe.
See recent comments about Merc being able to run more HP in race trim without the zero pod concept.

Ferrari and McLaren use two different PUs. I believe Mclaren uses its own gearbox and only uses Mercedes HPP PU like Mercedes. Most of the differences in performance will be in areas outside of the Powertrains, like chassis, aero, suspension, etc... Outside of of Powetrains reliability, I do not see how Ferrari OR Mercedes (Gearbox difference) would have any advantage. Zero pod refers to aero and not to the Powertrain.

It's the way you can integrate everything. You can adjust your PU architecture to your own aero philosophy.
But indeed McLaren uses its own gearbox do it helps to have more control when you design the rear end.

[LookingGlass]

Right now it's hard to not say McLaren will be competing closely with Red Bull. They certainly are looking the strongest towards the end of the season. I'm not buying into Mercedes as being back into contention until their new car is out on track. They haven't yet shown in the budget cap/aero era we're in now they are able to produce a championship winning car.

[AR3-GP]

Mclaren also has the benefit of two drivers feeding into their development loop. Realistically, RB can only rely on Verstappen's feedback and if only 1 driver can do the development work, that is a disadvantage.

[Chuckjr]

Great question!

Hard to see anyone catching Red Bull tbh. I think their true advantage is about a second per race lap. .9-1.2 per imo. I don’t see how a team can find all that and then also what RB will find in off season - which may be another second.

Advantage tho can be found in driver pairings, and I think Macca have the best drivers as they are arguably the fastest on the grid, but almost as importantly, the most compliant of all the driver pairings. Piastri will be even faster next year and the year after that. This will be a huge advantage to Macca as the cars get closer in relative pace next year.

Macca drivers will work more harmoniously with the team to capture points. In fact, I think Macca have a good shot next year winning the constructors if RB keep Perez.

RB must find a stronger second driver or it will hurt them badly, and imo that starts next year, not 2025. I don’t see RB holding a .9-1.2 second advantage next year, more like .5-.75, and it will be very important to have two drivers that are not only fast, but fully compliant to team orders and working together to win to beat Macca.

I think both Ferrari and Merc have drivers who will gladly step over and on each other to win, and this will prove costly in the constructors championship and the cars development and race strategy choices. I think Macca has more freedom and less politics to deal with than Merc by ten-fold and Ferrari by five-fold.

Finally, I don’t think there is any one driver or car that will be able to truly challenge Max next year. He may not win as many races or as easily, but the drivers championship is his to lose till 2025 afaiac. RB is like Ferrari was with Schumacher—one driver wins at any cost, and with Max’s natural speed, I just don’t see any driver challenging him in the RB for the drivers championship till 2026.

[PikeStance]

Even if it drops it can play a lot I believe.
See recent comments about Merc being able to run more HP in race trim without the zero pod concept.

Ferrari and McLaren use two different PUs. I believe Mclaren uses its own gearbox and only uses Mercedes HPP PU like Mercedes. Most of the differences in performance will be in areas outside of the Powertrains, like chassis, aero, suspension, etc... Outside of of Powetrains reliability, I do not see how Ferrari OR Mercedes (Gearbox difference) would have any advantage. Zero pod refers to aero and not to the Powertrain.

It's the way you can integrate everything. You can adjust your PU architecture to your own aero philosophy.
But indeed McLaren uses its own gearbox do it helps to have more control when you design the rear end.

This is not correct. PU engineers do not concern themselves with aerodynamic of the car. The first iteration of the Mercedes engine even had an outcrop. When they decided to freeze PUs, the engineers did try to redesign the engine to remove that deficiency. I said tried, because their chief concern was maintaining the output. The "redesign" did not benefit just Mercedes but for all four teams.

[AR3-GP]

Under engine freeze the benefits of being a factory team drops a lot.

Even if it drops it can play a lot I believe.
See recent comments about Merc being able to run more HP in race trim without the zero pod concept.

Ferrari and McLaren use two different PUs. I believe Mclaren uses its own gearbox and only uses Mercedes HPP PU like Mercedes. Most of the differences in performance will be in areas outside of the Powertrains, like chassis, aero, suspension, etc... Outside of of Powetrains reliability, I do not see how Ferrari OR Mercedes (Gearbox difference) would have any advantage. Zero pod refers to aero and not to the Powertrain.

See below. The Mercedes power unit packaging was determined by zero pod aerodynamics. Mercedes now that they are switching away from Zero pod will repackage the power unit which will enable better thermal management and more power next season. The Mercedes customer cars have all struggled with PU temperatures in the races. I don't have time to dig out all of the sources, but the issues have been there all season even if not heavily reported on. The Merc PU is compromised. Mclaren is defenseless against these kinds of decisions because they are only a customer.

The change of concept regarding the side structures of the car has already been partially introduced this season, with the new bellies already oriented towards the RedBull philosophy, but, obviously, it was not possible to carry out a redesign and modification of the components of the Power Unit for the current season. The 2024 car, however, will be born directly with the new philosophy, both as regards the bottom and as regards the upper part of the car, and the space limitations will become decidedly less stringent, with the possibility of a "re-packaging" of the drive unit that will give at that point much more comfort to the internal components, gaining in reliability (and therefore in percentage of use) and, especially, of course, in pure power. We spoke to an engineer from the team who confirmed all this, stating that the aggregate that Mercedes currently uses was designed for the zero pods concept, with very small dimensions and a cooling system inevitably reduced to a minimum. Despite the limitations set out so far, our contact told us that the data analyzed at Brixworth tell of a driving unit that does not fear comparison with rivals, and indeed in certain conditions has even proved to be the most effective. For this reason, at Mercedes there is a fair optimism on the engine front for next season, when the reorganization of the hood volumes and "sidepods" (the bellies) will allow a more generous layout of the components and sizing. We will therefore see if in 2024 we will find a Mercedes Power Unit again able to excel and overshadow rival units as already happened from 2014 onwards.

https://www.formulapassion.it/opinioni/ ... nza-motore

[Spoutnik]

Even if it drops it can play a lot I believe.
See recent comments about Merc being able to run more HP in race trim without the zero pod concept.

Ferrari and McLaren use two different PUs. I believe Mclaren uses its own gearbox and only uses Mercedes HPP PU like Mercedes. Most of the differences in performance will be in areas outside of the Powertrains, like chassis, aero, suspension, etc... Outside of of Powetrains reliability, I do not see how Ferrari OR Mercedes (Gearbox difference) would have any advantage. Zero pod refers to aero and not to the Powertrain.

See below. The Mercedes power unit packaging was determined by zero pod aerodynamics. Mercedes now that they are switching away from Zero pod will repackage the power unit which will enable better thermal management and more power next season. The Mercedes customer cars have all struggled with PU temperatures in the races. I don't have time to dig out all of the sources, but the issues have been there all season even if not heavily reported on. The Merc PU is compromised. Mclaren is defenseless against these kinds of decisions because they are only a customer.

The change of concept regarding the side structures of the car has already been partially introduced this season, with the new bellies already oriented towards the RedBull philosophy, but, obviously, it was not possible to carry out a redesign and modification of the components of the Power Unit for the current season. The 2024 car, however, will be born directly with the new philosophy, both as regards the bottom and as regards the upper part of the car, and the space limitations will become decidedly less stringent, with the possibility of a "re-packaging" of the drive unit that will give at that point much more comfort to the internal components, gaining in reliability (and therefore in percentage of use) and, especially, of course, in pure power. We spoke to an engineer from the team who confirmed all this, stating that the aggregate that Mercedes currently uses was designed for the zero pods concept, with very small dimensions and a cooling system inevitably reduced to a minimum. Despite the limitations set out so far, our contact told us that the data analyzed at Brixworth tell of a driving unit that does not fear comparison with rivals, and indeed in certain conditions has even proved to be the most effective. For this reason, at Mercedes there is a fair optimism on the engine front for next season, when the reorganization of the hood volumes and "sidepods" (the bellies) will allow a more generous layout of the components and sizing. We will therefore see if in 2024 we will find a Mercedes Power Unit again able to excel and overshadow rival units as already happened from 2014 onwards.

https://www.formulapassion.it/opinioni/ ... nza-motore

That's exactly what I was trying to say !