Which team is most likely to catch redbull before 2026 discussion

[mwillems]

Might be late to the party but I read a comment in the RB20 thread saying that Vasseur, Allison and RB members stating that the cars are built in 2 year cycles, so the 2024 cars will have very little carryover from 2022/23. It's a golden opportunity for the non-RB teams to challenge RB for the title if they get their cars right.

It just means less of the same actual parts being used next year, not that there is revolution. The same articles state they are just evolving the concept. It's just that you don't need to rework the internals every time.

Last winter for instance the Mclaren might have developed the Baku upgrade for the start of the season but the car would still have been similar to last year's car.

This year for instance we believe the Mclaren will have a new cooling layout, suspension crash structure... and I'm sure plenty more.

Unless I'm mistaken I'm not sure there is any more opportunity than last year for a shake up, everyone is in the same boat.

[ME4ME]

Might be late to the party but I read a comment in the RB20 thread saying that Vasseur, Allison and RB members stating that the cars are built in 2 year cycles, so the 2024 cars will have very little carryover from 2022/23. It's a golden opportunity for the non-RB teams to challenge RB for the title if they get their cars right.

I saw the comments that you mentioned and it may be true for the current situation but I doubt it is a general rule of thumb that F1 teams develop in 2-year cycles. Although I stand corrected on that..

Its just that with the 2026 regulations coming up and the development period for those cars beginning 1st of January 2025 by regulation, teams must plan ahead.

Throughout the entirety of 2025 they will likely spend very little resources on the 25 car. All will be dedicated to the 26 car. So the 25 car will in large just be a fine-tuned evolution of the 24 car.

This makes the 24 car of greater importance since at its core is has to serve two seasons.

It has yet to be seen though if teams re-use the actual 24 chassis for 25, or if some see enough benefit to do another iteration and go for a new spec in 25.

[diffuser]

Might be late to the party but I read a comment in the RB20 thread saying that Vasseur, Allison and RB members stating that the cars are built in 2 year cycles, so the 2024 cars will have very little carryover from 2022/23. It's a golden opportunity for the non-RB teams to challenge RB for the title if they get their cars right.

I saw the comments that you mentioned and it may be true for the current situation but I doubt it is a general rule of thumb that F1 teams develop in 2-year cycles. Although I stand corrected on that..

Its just that with the 2026 regulations coming up and the development period for those cars beginning 1st of January 2025 by regulation, teams must plan ahead.

Throughout the entirety of 2025 they will likely spend very little resources on the 25 car. All will be dedicated to the 26 car. So the 25 car will in large just be a fine-tuned evolution of the 24 car.

This makes the 24 car of greater importance since at its core is has to serve two seasons.

It has yet to be seen though if teams re-use the actual 24 chassis for 25, or if some see enough benefit to do another iteration and go for a new spec in 25.

As always, how close is the team behind/in front of you in the 2024 year and how much time can be made up by making the changes will be factored into those decisions to bail early on 2024 and pour the remaining 2024 resources into 2025.

[mendis]

Might be late to the party but I read a comment in the RB20 thread saying that Vasseur, Allison and RB members stating that the cars are built in 2 year cycles, so the 2024 cars will have very little carryover from 2022/23. It's a golden opportunity for the non-RB teams to challenge RB for the title if they get their cars right.

I saw the comments that you mentioned and it may be true for the current situation but I doubt it is a general rule of thumb that F1 teams develop in 2-year cycles. Although I stand corrected on that..

Its just that with the 2026 regulations coming up and the development period for those cars beginning 1st of January 2025 by regulation, teams must plan ahead.

Throughout the entirety of 2025 they will likely spend very little resources on the 25 car. All will be dedicated to the 26 car. So the 25 car will in large just be a fine-tuned evolution of the 24 car.

This makes the 24 car of greater importance since at its core is has to serve two seasons.

It has yet to be seen though if teams re-use the actual 24 chassis for 25, or if some see enough benefit to do another iteration and go for a new spec in 25.

Imagine if someone from the mid pack decides to do something unorthodox. They spend a hell of a lot on 2025 car in 2025 and develop with all the ideas from 2024 and have a winner at hand. Have great fun in 2025, gain some serious sponsors, when everyone else has shifted focus to 2026. Essentially sacrifice 2026 to enjoy 2025 and then use 2026 like everyone did with 2025, but copy and follow the 2026 winning concept from the top teams? One year of gain followed by one year of pain. They anyway can't outperform the top teams in 2026, if they follow the regular path that everyone follows!

[MaxLL]

Imagine if someone from the mid pack decides to do something unorthodox. They spend a hell of a lot on 2025 car in 2025 and develop with all the ideas from 2024 and have a winner at hand. Have great fun in 2025, gain some serious sponsors, when everyone else has shifted focus to 2026. Essentially sacrifice 2026 to enjoy 2025 and then use 2026 like everyone did with 2025, but copy and follow the 2026 winning concept from the top teams? One year of gain followed by one year of pain. They anyway can't outperform the top teams in 2026, if they follow the regular path that everyone follows!

If someone in the middle pack takes the risk of doing something unorthodox, they have a chance of both coming out on top and sliding down.
That's why middle pack teams usually don't do anything unorthodox, they like being middle pack

Hello, everyone! This is my first post, I'll be checking in occasionally. I hope I don't seem too boring.

[skoop]

Might be late to the party but I read a comment in the RB20 thread saying that Vasseur, Allison and RB members stating that the cars are built in 2 year cycles, so the 2024 cars will have very little carryover from 2022/23. It's a golden opportunity for the non-RB teams to challenge RB for the title if they get their cars right.

I saw the comments that you mentioned and it may be true for the current situation but I doubt it is a general rule of thumb that F1 teams develop in 2-year cycles. Although I stand corrected on that..

Its just that with the 2026 regulations coming up and the development period for those cars beginning 1st of January 2025 by regulation, teams must plan ahead.

Throughout the entirety of 2025 they will likely spend very little resources on the 25 car. All will be dedicated to the 26 car. So the 25 car will in large just be a fine-tuned evolution of the 24 car.

This makes the 24 car of greater importance since at its core is has to serve two seasons.

It has yet to be seen though if teams re-use the actual 24 chassis for 25, or if some see enough benefit to do another iteration and go for a new spec in 25.

I think it was Ross Brawn who mentioned that Merc develops it cars in 2 year cycles as well. If I remember correctyl, they even have a third team working on future innovations and concepts

[TeamKoolGreen]

Red Bull are unlikely to be caught. The Mercedes engine era forced Red Bull to perfect everything in order to compete. Which they did in 2021. And they moved all of that knowledge over to the 2022 car.

[Henk_v]

A team can only beat them if they are the only real challenger. Richt now there are 4 other teams getting podiums. If a team succeeds to be able to challenge mid season, it's points deficit will be too large already.

[JordanMugen]

A team can only beat them if they are the only real challenger. Richt now there are 4 other teams getting podiums. If a team succeeds to be able to challenge mid season, it's points deficit will be too large already.

We are not talking about the WCC though, we are talking about being faster than Red Bull on track (taking the pole, fastest lap and race win with small & then large margin) which is open to all of Ferrari, McLaren and Aston Martin.

With the speed achieved, then the 2025 WCC win would take care of itself! [Unless the execution is completely disastrous or the team's second driver is Stroll.]

[codetower]

Catch/beat them consistently? No one. Now if you are talking about maybe a race or two at a track specific circuit... I would say Ferrari. Maaaaybe McLaren. But there isn't a team that will be able to catch them. The deficit is too big.

[leblanc]

Unless Mercedes figure out how to design a floor immediately as performant as Red Bull, Ferrari, and McLaren in the next few weeks, it will be either Ferrari (most likely) or McLaren.

[dren]

Ferrari and maybe AM.

[kalinka]

There's always a quick way to lose dominant position in no time. There's plenty of precedence for it. It's not only about what other teams are doing, but a team always can fall into a design blind alley or corellation /reliability issues just by trying to further improve something. It's not likely to happen mid-season, but every new car is susceptible to this, Not saying that it's likely to happen - far from that, but still...

[stephen]

Ferrari and McLaren are looking like the only two possible options at the moment.

[PlatinumZealot]

This sport is full of short memories. They say you're only as good as your last race. Look how people change their opinions after each GP. Hah